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How to Kill a Startup Idea with Google Keyword Planner and AdWords: A Case Study

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Re: How to Kill a Startup Idea with Google Keyword Planner and AdWords: A Case Study

#91
post #86

I think they missed the opportunity to add some value to the market, by doing some kind of background checks to ensure the teachers are safe to let into your kids home. Trust is an element people always look for above all else.

It’s a value add for the first contact. But after you hire the teacher, why would you need the middleman? For continuing background checks?

Re: How to Kill a Startup Idea with Google Keyword Planner and AdWords: A Case Study

#93
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we are limited to billion dollar ideas How did matchmaking for music lessons get into the discussion as a billion dollar idea? Referrals for tutoring in any subject (math, reading, music, etc.) would be a bigger market, but even then it might not be a $1B company.

Well I was right there with you, thinking it was a completely shit idea, but a little math shows how it at least popped up on the radar (and I don't think its quite so bad myself after some thought): 100,000 music instructors, $60 per hour, at 365 days per year is roughly: $2.19 billion gross revenue per year-hour in the segment. Assuming, the average hours per day are like 3.5 (I can't imagine folks doing this are g…

$60/hr and booking 3.5hrs per day all 365 days of the year are all really high estimates IMO.

That's $76k/year. My guess is that only the top 1% of music tutors are making that much per year.

And only 100k tutors in the US is an incredibly small market.

Re: How to Kill a Startup Idea with Google Keyword Planner and AdWords: A Case Study

#94
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we are limited to billion dollar ideas How did matchmaking for music lessons get into the discussion as a billion dollar idea? Referrals for tutoring in any subject (math, reading, music, etc.) would be a bigger market, but even then it might not be a $1B company.

Well I was right there with you, thinking it was a completely shit idea, but a little math shows how it at least popped up on the radar (and I don't think its quite so bad myself after some thought): 100,000 music instructors, $60 per hour, at 365 days per year is roughly: $2.19 billion gross revenue per year-hour in the segment. Assuming, the average hours per day are like 3.5 (I can't imagine folks doing this are g…

> That is to say, digital advertising isn't showing the volume of or demand for musical teaching service because it's highly likely everyone believes it's incapable of doing so or adding value

An ad for online one-to-one art lessons has been popping up in my Wechat moments. Judging by the ad copy, they feel they have two strengths:

1. No need to transport your kid to and from the lesson.

2. Your kid will like this more than classroom-based lessons.

I conclude that the market they're trying to serve is parents who would like their children to learn to draw. But there are a lot of those, and their selling points seem pretty reasonable.

Re: How to Kill a Startup Idea with Google Keyword Planner and AdWords: A Case Study

#95
post #26

This startup also faces a fatal problem when users find a great music teacher, and then they just cut out the startup for future dealings with the teacher. They lose both the parents and the best teachers. Similar to those startups that pair you with a maid.

... or a soul mate, aka dating platforms.

at face value, this seems plausible. However, the dating dynamic is unique among other marketplace ideas. Case in point, tinder is profitable (whenever people find their soulmate through it, tinder loses customers)

Re: How to Kill a Startup Idea with Google Keyword Planner and AdWords: A Case Study

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only that, I’m amazed that VCs call the awful ads they tested “marketing”. What they created is simple, uncompetitive, uncreative advertising, and that kind of thing doesn’t stand a chance in today’s world. Of course it performed terribly. Marketing today takes just as much creativity as the product you’re selling. Actually, I would argue it takes more in many cases. It’s like building a race car and putting low…

If the ads were higher quality, the click through would improve but conversions wouldn’t. So it would drive up the acquisition costs even more — further making the point that this was a loser idea.

Hmm, this is not how improving ads has ever worked for me. Better ads = better performance.

Re: How to Kill a Startup Idea with Google Keyword Planner and AdWords: A Case Study

#97
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're also ignoring the probability of success. This project is only worth $shitton ($30 million) if the project were perfectly executed and other market participants didn't dynamically react to this new entrant. This isn't the likely outcome. The expected value of this project is probably only $5-10 million once you factor probability of success into account and thus not worth the time and effort at trying in the f…

You won't even make 1 penny, if you can't break even on your user acquisition costs. That's what usually breaks a business not the fact that it's not profitable enough, but that's it not profitable at all.

But music lessons are an ongoing (hopefully) expense. If your pockets are deep enough you can run out all the other players and capture the market.

Re: How to Kill a Startup Idea with Google Keyword Planner and AdWords: A Case Study

#98

I love this, I follow a similar method. One thing that immediately stood out is the Instagram ad creative is poor. The copy is overly technical and there’s no call to action. The image is a basic stock photo. Spending 5 minutes in Biteable [1] or a similar service would kick out much better ad creative that would likely have yielded substantially better results. Another point of contention is around the revenue model…

Do you have any concrete proof animated or video ads perform any better? I got pitched a similar service a few years ago and the whole thing came off as super obnoxious for the end user.

Re: How to Kill a Startup Idea with Google Keyword Planner and AdWords: A Case Study

#99

How was the data in the first table estimated (clicks, impressions, cost, etc)?

Google ads keywords planner. So many variables with deploying a real campaign and not optimizing end to end, so actual results can vastly vary with CPC, CTR, and conversions. If you build great ad campaigns and landing pages, you should be beating these estimates nearly every time.

Even with these keyword estimates you would never go full speed with ad spend until you optimized every step in the funnel on-going, then ramp up ad spend to scale in the following months. On top of that where are the display and youtube campaigns? Blaming these click estimates and ad platforms is not the reason of a failure, rather the value add, demand, and audience targeting. So many techniques to optimizing ad campaigns, I didn't get that was done.

Re: How to Kill a Startup Idea with Google Keyword Planner and AdWords: A Case Study

#100
post #76

This is a very dangerous idea. It seems logical until you go and try it. The potential market is too small so you pass. Only to see the market blow up into billions of dollars that gets harvested by someone else. Do you think electric cars were that big an idea in July 2003 when Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning started Tesla? It also doesn't factor when you commit to an idea you become an expert. Often that knowle…

Ignorance, motivated learning and money fantasies are a proven method of exploring the business problem space. Analysis and wisdom have limited utility when it comes to uncovering opportunities.
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