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It can make more sense to build new renewable capacity than run old coal plants

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Re: It can make more sense to build new renewable capacity than run old coal plants

#91
post #87
post #2

"[Wind and solar are] even close to being competitive with the marginal costs of running the coal and nuclear plants we already have." Is that still true without incentives, green grants, rebates, and tax credits? Because without all of that and with mountains of red tape nuclear still produces energy at the lowest cost, and without emitting any CO2.

Almost all recent cost studies put the cost of wind and solar far below the cost of new nuclear power. See f.e: "The cost of generating solar power ranges from $36 to $44 per megawatt hour (MWh), the WNISR said, while onshore wind power comes in at $29–$56 per MWh. Nuclear energy costs between $112 and $189." https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-nuclearpower/nucle... "Onshore generation costs, at the upper bound…

It's typical HN that the top comment is both wildly incorrect and completely uncited. So thanks for providing some necessary context.

Worth adding that after this year's round of UK offshore auctions, wind power comes in cheaper than new gas and under a quarter of heavily subsidised nuclear. Despite subsidy and six proposed plants, the only certain remaining nuclear is Hinkley C. Five of the others have had participants withdraw, go bankrupt in one case (Moorside under Westinghouse-Toshiba), and the final remaining UK proposed nuclear - Sizewell C looks increasingly unlikely. Depends on the package and strike prices I suspect as it's an exact copy of Hinkley. EDF (behind Bradwell B, Hinkley and Sizewell using a Chinese reactor design) are busy accumulating a Shenzen style reputation for worker conditions and suicides at Hinkley. Even the majority right wing UK media has noticed enough to report conditions.

The next auction round of offshore wind licences should see it easily come in under existing gas.

Re: It can make more sense to build new renewable capacity than run old coal plants

#92
post #89
post #28

I don't understand the hype around wind and solar. Or rather I don't see how these technologies can ever be anything more than a minor player in the energy market: These technologies are extremely sensitive to weather conditions which means that other, more stable sources must exist and have "stand by" production cap to produce all the energy these tech won't under bad conditions. If so, what's the point? (I mean in…

Do you know about the law of large numbers? Basically it says that in the long run "things even out." Suppose you flip a coin 100 times. It can happen that you only get one heads in those 100 flips, but would you worry about it? In my city the electric scooter companies have carpet bombed the city centre with their vehicles. When I'm downtown can I be certain that one is available to take me from place A to B? I can'…

So if we build enough solar panels, there'll be some running at night?

Re: It can make more sense to build new renewable capacity than run old coal plants

#93
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't scale. Not enough sites. Mind, where it does work, it's phenomenally effective, efficient, and responsive. There are a few sites at which seawater-based systems might be possible, in which the ocean forms the "lower reservoir". These are dependent on suitable terrain. Matching terrain to consumption patterns is difficult: the Netherlands and much of Britain are sorely lacking. Some of the best potential sites…

> Doesn't scale. Not enough sites. Terrible energy density, massive land use. To store the energy contained in 1 gallon of gasoline requires over 55,000 gallons to be pumped up 726 feet (CCST 2012). [1] Itaipu Dam has 14,000 MW installed power, 1,350 square kilometres (520 sq mi) were flooded. [2] [1] http://energyskeptic.com/2015/hydropower-has-a-very-low-ener... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Itaipu_Dam

Itaipu (or comparable impoundages such as Three Gorges) provide both capacity, indicated as installed GWe of generating capability, a measure of power, and storage, indicated as GWH of energy generation. These are equivalent to the capabilities of an automobile's engine (power) and fuel tank (storage).

Hydroelectric projects also virtually always provide additional services such as flood control, irrigation water, recreation, and waterways management (ensuring water flows, etc.), which also account for design elements including scale, etc.

Pumped hydro should provide a sufficient level of both capacity and storage, though in general the storage requirements are far smaller than traditional hydroelectric dams aimed at generation. There are quite small pumped hydro facilities, the compensation being that water levels can rise or fall considerably, often many metres in a single day's storage/generation cycle.

Gravity is in general a weak force, but water is relatively massive, largely non-toxic, and can be utilised through large-scale pump-generator units (~800 MW per generator IIRC), which is a scale few other options can match. Again, on balance, pumped hydro is a good solution, there's just not enough of it to go around.

Re: It can make more sense to build new renewable capacity than run old coal plants

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't scale. Not enough sites. Mind, where it does work, it's phenomenally effective, efficient, and responsive. There are a few sites at which seawater-based systems might be possible, in which the ocean forms the "lower reservoir". These are dependent on suitable terrain. Matching terrain to consumption patterns is difficult: the Netherlands and much of Britain are sorely lacking. Some of the best potential sites…

Does it have to scale? What does scaling mean? Could the existing 2400 dams in the United States be used for PSH? [1] How many sites do we need? Why would the Netherlands need pumped hydro, isn't the European grid interconnected? See my comment below. https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2018/04/f51/Hydropow...

I'm going to suggest you think through what I've written, the general problem of power grids, generation, and storage, energy uses, and consequences of power outages. The answer may reveal itself to you.

Likewise, you seem to have failed to grasp what I'd hoped would be a rather evident reason for mentioning the Netherlands in the context of pumped hydro and terrain.

Re: It can make more sense to build new renewable capacity than run old coal plants

#95
post #28

I don't understand the hype around wind and solar. Or rather I don't see how these technologies can ever be anything more than a minor player in the energy market: These technologies are extremely sensitive to weather conditions which means that other, more stable sources must exist and have "stand by" production cap to produce all the energy these tech won't under bad conditions. If so, what's the point? (I mean in…

I know you used danger quotes, but it is worth noting that nothing is "soon to be coal". All coal deposits were formed in the limited (in geopolitical terms) time span after plants evolved the ability to produce lignin but before fungi evolved the ability to break it down. All of the coal that will ever exist on Earth has already been created.

Re: It can make more sense to build new renewable capacity than run old coal plants

#96
post #2

"[Wind and solar are] even close to being competitive with the marginal costs of running the coal and nuclear plants we already have." Is that still true without incentives, green grants, rebates, and tax credits? Because without all of that and with mountains of red tape nuclear still produces energy at the lowest cost, and without emitting any CO2.

Yes, the dream team would be a combination of renewable and nuclear.

> Yes, the dream team would be a combination of renewable and nuclear

So long as you don't care how to dispose of the nuclear waste. But we'll be dead by then anyway, so who cares right.

Re: It can make more sense to build new renewable capacity than run old coal plants

#97

I learned from Professor Vaclav Smil that while Wind and Solar are practical energy solutions in the United States population ~340mil. It is not practical in all regions in more populous countries such as China (population ~1.4 Billion). There are large regions in the country where Solar is not a good solution due to fog. And Wind is not a good solution due to lack of wind. We have a global climate system. As is such…

Yes, and anything that helps in reduction helps the overall system. It's not black and white universal solutions, but a combination of them.

Re: It can make more sense to build new renewable capacity than run old coal plants

#98
post #28

I don't understand the hype around wind and solar. Or rather I don't see how these technologies can ever be anything more than a minor player in the energy market: These technologies are extremely sensitive to weather conditions which means that other, more stable sources must exist and have "stand by" production cap to produce all the energy these tech won't under bad conditions. If so, what's the point? (I mean in…

I know you used danger quotes, but it is worth noting that nothing is "soon to be coal". All coal deposits were formed in the limited (in geopolitical terms) time span after plants evolved the ability to produce lignin but before fungi evolved the ability to break it down. All of the coal that will ever exist on Earth has already been created.

Steve Mould posted a video just this last week about the small period of time when all the coal was made. Understanding how it happened and why it stopped helps to set your frame of mind when thinking about the viability of natural carbon capture at large scales like how coal was formed.

https://youtu.be/b34al8YmQSA

(You probably mean "geological" not " geopolitical".)

Re: It can make more sense to build new renewable capacity than run old coal plants

#99
post #87
post #2

"[Wind and solar are] even close to being competitive with the marginal costs of running the coal and nuclear plants we already have." Is that still true without incentives, green grants, rebates, and tax credits? Because without all of that and with mountains of red tape nuclear still produces energy at the lowest cost, and without emitting any CO2.

Almost all recent cost studies put the cost of wind and solar far below the cost of new nuclear power. See f.e: "The cost of generating solar power ranges from $36 to $44 per megawatt hour (MWh), the WNISR said, while onshore wind power comes in at $29–$56 per MWh. Nuclear energy costs between $112 and $189." https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-nuclearpower/nucle... "Onshore generation costs, at the upper bound…

Are your numbers factoring the cost of building energy storage, or a plant using a pilotable energy ?

Re: It can make more sense to build new renewable capacity than run old coal plants

#100

I learned from Professor Vaclav Smil that while Wind and Solar are practical energy solutions in the United States population ~340mil. It is not practical in all regions in more populous countries such as China (population ~1.4 Billion). There are large regions in the country where Solar is not a good solution due to fog. And Wind is not a good solution due to lack of wind. We have a global climate system. As is such…

This is surprising to hear. Here's some back of the napkin math that seems to contradict the assertion that there's not enough sunlight to power humanity: https://ag.tennessee.edu/solar/Pages/What%20Is%20Solar%20Ene... They claim texas recieves >300x the amount of power consumed in the form of sunlight. Another source claims that the Sun delivers enough power in a single hour to power the earth for a year: https://ww…

it's not even that surprising when you consider that basically all of earth's energy through its lifetime derives from the sun in some form.

the main exceptions--radiative exchange with the rest of the universe and energy from earth's core--are relatively insignificant sources compared to the solar influx of energy.

fossil fuels are just solar energy captured and (inefficiently) transformed over hundreds of millions of years through plant and animal intermediaries. wind and hydro (weather-based energy) are also intermediated forms of solar energy.

the sun is effectively unlimited energy for billions of years, mostly being radiated away right now, so the closer we get to transforming it directly into useful forms, the better off we are.

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