Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast • Hacker News Board

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#91

Post by perfunctory » Fri, Sep 20, 2019, 4:05 PM UTC

MiroF wrote: post #19

caconym_ wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do we need more evidence to act? What are we waiting for? We're waiting for a reversal in the apparent worldwide collapse of liberal democracy, I guess. Probably climate change and said collapse will feed into each other. The way most oligarchs and their toadies are wired, I think they're more likely to look to pull the ripcord for themselves rather than spend big on best-effort change for everyone else. Dismantlin…

Your mistake is assuming that democratic consensus will spur the kind of action we really need. Once voters realize that this would take personal cost for benefits they won't see in their lifetime, I can't see them willfully voting for any substantial reversal.

I believe people are much more reasonable then you give them credit for. When properly informed they will make the right choices.

And the good news is that you don’t even need to wait for the majority to make the “right” vote. Apparently, it’s enough for the 3.5% of the population to take part in a sustained active resistance to bring about radical change [0]. This is also why I believe Extinction Rebellion is the last hope of humanity.

[0] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YJSehRlU34w

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#92

Post by cr0sh » Fri, Sep 20, 2019, 4:06 PM UTC

A somewhat flippant comment, but I'm involved tangentially with the "cyberpunk" aesthetic; often, people involved ask "where is our cyberpunk?"

All I can tell them is "Yes, we got our cyberpunk - unfortunately, we didn't get the Diamond Age, or even Neuromancer - we instead got David Brin's Earth..."

As far as why methane levels are rising so fast - I suspect it has to do with the thawing of arctic permafrost (ever seen videos of "bogs" in Russia and Siberia that move like a waterbed?), and possibly also methane hydrates at shallower depths releasing their gases because of ocean warming (and maybe other factors).

Of course - this is all speculation and I am far from being the person to answer this in any true manner. But if I had to make my guess - that's the most likely reason.

As far as if we can stop it? Well - I think we're far too late to do anything. We probably should've started back in the 1970s or earlier (that would be my best guess) - and people back then were talking about this kind of thing.

But nobody ever listens to the geeks and eggheads; I mean, what the hell do those dorks know? They only dedicate their lives and brains to such things, and we all know they can't party, right?

So - enjoy what we have left, because we're only seeing the start of massive die-offs that will eventually get to us. Don't worry about the Earth though - it will be fine.

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#93

Post by dougmwne » Fri, Sep 20, 2019, 4:09 PM UTC

MiroF wrote: post #30

api wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see a darker possibility. Maybe we are acting. Maybe governments and oligarchs in richer more powerful nations have concluded in secret that the situation is hopeless and that it's too late to prevent major climate change, so they are deploying totalitarianism. When I see Trump's push to build the wall, I think maybe the wall is not for today's migrant workers and trickle of refugees. Maybe it's to wall off America…

Russia has a substantially higher population than you are implying. Also, you give those in power far too much credit. If they had actually concluded the situation was hopeless, we would be seeing large geoengineering investments right now

I thought the bit about Russia was insightful. East of the Urals, Russia is very sparsely populated. Take a look at this border region between Russia and China to see just how underutilized Eastern Russia is for farming, especially once the growing season increases. The light area within the Chinese border is all intensely cultivated land. The darker area in Russia is wilderness.

https://www.google.com/maps/@48.4321743,133.5037235,409161m/...

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#94

Post by jonnycomputer » Fri, Sep 20, 2019, 4:10 PM UTC

rohan1024 wrote: post #10

There's already a news on front page at the moment which says bird population is declining in North America. The comments section mention that it's not just North America but also Britain, France and also that it could be due to declining insect population. We rarely get this kind of data from developing countries, which means these studies are rarely or not at all performed simply because they don't have resources t…

Collapse in insect populations is probably not global warming, or methane release, imo. New pesticide use, yes, e.g. the nicitinoids and loss of habitat. Bird population decline is expected consequence of decline in insect population, but could be other pollutants. There could be changes in fertility too. Plastics? I dunno.

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#95

Post by ComputerGuru » Fri, Sep 20, 2019, 4:18 PM UTC

WhompingWindows wrote: post #31

rohan1024 wrote: post #10

There's already a news on front page at the moment which says bird population is declining in North America. The comments section mention that it's not just North America but also Britain, France and also that it could be due to declining insect population. We rarely get this kind of data from developing countries, which means these studies are rarely or not at all performed simply because they don't have resources t…

"We" may not be waiting at all, the readers of HN and other tech-centric websites. Many people here may be improving their personal behaviors, but that is never going to be enough. What WE need to do is VOTE, first off, and second, realize that politicians and corporate entities are those with the power to truly shift our behavior as an economy. Until politicians and corporations make huge moves, we'll be stuck waiti…

That’s very high and noble but look at France and les Gilets jaunes. Even voting in people willing to bite the bullet and pull the trigger on much needed actions is not enough.

And that’s a shame because the general consensus is that in terms of effectiveness (i.e. not accounting for economic fallout), simply directly taxing CO2 emissions at “only” $60-100 per metric ton would work instant miracles.

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#96

Post by api » Fri, Sep 20, 2019, 4:19 PM UTC

dougmwne wrote: post #85

api wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see a darker possibility. Maybe we are acting. Maybe governments and oligarchs in richer more powerful nations have concluded in secret that the situation is hopeless and that it's too late to prevent major climate change, so they are deploying totalitarianism. When I see Trump's push to build the wall, I think maybe the wall is not for today's migrant workers and trickle of refugees. Maybe it's to wall off America…

Not sure why you're being downvoted. This is actual pretty decent speculation(minus the conspiracy tinge). Global warming is absolutely going to kick off a period of high geopolitical instability. Geopolitical in the classic sense of the geography. The borders of our countries, populations, alliances, and economic base are all tightly coupled to the natural resources of each country. Those natural resources are about…

Thanks, but what "conspiracy tinge?" Planning for likely future conflict scenarios is what governments and militaries do. They have entire departments full of people who do it full time. It's not at all unreasonable to think they've looked at climate change and the possible outcomes and that powerful factions within government (and elsewhere) may have come to conclusions like what I wrote.

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#97

Post by dougmwne » Fri, Sep 20, 2019, 4:20 PM UTC

carapace wrote: post #61

Geopolitics in a Hotter World – UBC Talk Transcribed (Sept. 2010) https://spaswell.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/dr-gwynne-dyer-geo... Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc_4Z1oiXhY Long, good, hard to summarize but I'll try: Things are worse than publicly talked about; there are a few options (geo-engineering). "People always raid before they starve." - - - - We have the solutions already. Cut-n-paste from a comment y…

Damn, in the first 5 minutes of Dyer's talk there's the best argument for Brexit that I've ever seen.

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#98

Post by ComputerGuru » Fri, Sep 20, 2019, 4:23 PM UTC

mrfusion wrote: post #2

(Disclaimer I believe in climate change with all my heart) If methane levels are higher than we thought wouldn’t that make our climate models wrong? Ie less of a heating effect from co2?

It’s a runaway reaction with a positive feedback loop feeding into itself. Current scientific opinion is that within a certain range, increases in temperature caused by CO2 emissions can trigger a negative feedback loop but beyond a certain horizon (which we passed long ago) and up to the point of a doomsday scenario, the warmer it gets the more it causes secondary results that directly contribute to accelerating CO2 and methane emissions. Melting of permafrost being a chief source of the latter, in this case.

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#99

Post by tom_wilde » Fri, Sep 20, 2019, 4:24 PM UTC

pdonis wrote: post #88

tom_wilde wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well.. for both your points here there are no guarantees. Progress isn't linear and just because we can adapt doesn't mean we will. What is known is that our entire eco-system is failing to adapt fast enough to keep up with the rate of change - what makes you think we can beat it? Its disappointingly reductive to throw the towel in and, really, that point of view is no better than 'the world is ending in 12 years' To…

> any action is clearly going to beat sticking ones head in the sand Not if the action makes things worse than they would have been if you'd done nothing. And given our very poor understanding of how the climate and ecosystems work, any action we take that is not an obvious benefit (like "bring more people out of poverty" or "make our infrastructure more robust", both of which are things we certainly should be doing)…

Reduce / Recycle / Reuse

Tell me which of those is going to make the situation worse?

Re: Researchers are racing to find out why methane levels are increasing so fast

#100

Post by acd » Fri, Sep 20, 2019, 4:26 PM UTC

By Henry’s gas law. The amount of gas dissolved or released depends on the temperature of the fluid. This is why for example you need to chill sodas to carbonate it during manufacturing.

Thus could it be that dissolved methane is being released from ocean and lakes as earth is heating? The gas law would imply that. As the liquid that contains methane heats the dissolved methane will be released to the atmosphere.

Same gas law Henry’s law is also active during scuba diving nitrogen absorption. Henrys gas law.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry%27s_law

Methane example of Henry’s law for dissolved methane in a well https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/using-henrys-law-for-d...