Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

91–100 of 238 posts

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#91

Post by Theodores »

sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

> normal door handles

The business plan always was to start at the high end with the Roadster, then the deluxe sedan and then the affordable Model 3. The Model 3 has cheaper door handles than the Model S.

Tesla is about building car factories rather than cars. Once you have the robots doing as they are told then you can make whatever you want.

If you had to recycle a Lamborghini and a Dacia Sandero then you would probably end up with near equal piles of raw materials for both vehicles, give or take a bit of steel.

The other input is energy. The cylinder head on the Lamborghini takes a bit more work to make than the lump of iron that comes with the Dacia. But, if you have built out lots of renewable power then you can get those CNC machines and other robots doing overtime.

Tesla with their vertical integration business model are finding customers at their price point and they can't make cars quick enough. Despite the sceptics, it is working.

Personally I think the budget space will be filled with an electric version of a 'Dacia Sandero' but made in China. EVs are more pleasant to be in as there is not the vibration and noise from the engine, or the local cloud of pollution.

Because of this and the realities of driving in city/town areas there really is a need for a vehicle far simpler than a Model 3, something without the bells and whistles. Honda have something in the works that is nearer the brief. They are going with a low range EV that is not going to pretend to do hundreds of miles on a charge. This is for the two car family where car two just needs to do the shopping, pick the kids up and get into congestion charging zones. In China there are plenty of BYD fit for purpose EVs that are budget and will be making their way to Western markets in due course.

The legacy brands in Europe and the USA are stuck with having to do things the old way with existing supply chains. To make an EV all they need is to buy the bits from Bosch and shove them in to final assembly but they aren't doing it.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#92

Post by sp332 »

dTal wrote: post #73
sq_ wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if people's home power bills spike, they'll still save plenty of money by not paying for gas. In parts of the US, a decent commute will cost one $200 to $300 in gas a month, and charging an EV off the grid for the same range will cost a lot less.

Is this really a good thing for the environment? Grid power is still mostly fossil. Even if we posit that fossil -> power station -> grid -> battery -> motors is, say, twice as efficient as fossil -> fueling station -> combustion engine, it's a lot more than twice as cheap. So wouldn't we expect the shift to EVs to cause energy consumption to rise, and hence also emissions? I understand the argument that it's easier…

The timing is fine. Large power plants are already far more efficient than burning gasoline in tiny ICE's. On top of that, fossil fuels are only 65% of electricity generation in the USA. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#93

Post by TeMPOraL »

Marsymars wrote: post #54
Iv wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2 million of the 70 million cars produced annually in the world are electric. It went from fringe to industrial, talking about a boom is acceptable IMO. It still have a 35x potential growth, so it can "boom" again, but the EV industry now is huge

> It still have a 35x potential growth, so it can "boom" again, but the EV industry now is huge One of the hyped upsides of electric cars is decreased maintenance costs leading to a decrease in per-km capital costs of driving. If this is true, unless induced demand from this causes people to drive more, EVs effectively will shrink the total car industry pie, leaving something less than 35x potential growth.

Cynical view: maintenance burden will stay roughly similar, because fault rate is not ultimately driven by technology, but by how much the market is willing to bear. In other words, companies under competitive pressure will cheap out on materials and cut corners in the manufacturing process, making their cars as faulty as they can get away with, and unless something changes structurally in the market (e.g. death of used cars market, much less car ownership, much more leasing), the existing fault rate of petroleum-powered cars tells you what the market is willing to accept.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#94

Post by Bombthecat »

sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

Uhhhhh I still have no idea where I get the power from? I don't think I will see a power plug in the next ten years near my house (street)

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#95

Post by Tade0 »

xxpor wrote: post #33
Causality1 wrote: post #4

I would've been very excited about this back in the halcyon days of being able to carry spare batteries for my phone and laptop.

I bought a laptop with a replaceable battery, RAM, and HDD this year. A Lenovo T480. Most people don't have to buy a MacBook (outside of iOS dev).

I think you can still charge a MacBook via a pedestrian power bank, provided it has a USB-C and enough output power.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#96

Post by want2know »

There are other problems arising for electric cars: road tax.

Electric cars are way havier than most cars and have so much traction that road maintenance will be much more expensive when everybody has an electric car.

This is why countries like Norway and the Netherlands are thinking about raising the road tax for electric vehicles.

I also think this is why brands like Toyota are still thinking about hydrogen cars. They still don't believe 100% in electric battery cars.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#97

Post by Gravityloss »

sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

But lithium is only a medium sized part of the battery by weight and cost.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#98

Post by rusticpenn »

londons_explore wrote: post #71
Marsymars wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It still have a 35x potential growth, so it can "boom" again, but the EV industry now is huge One of the hyped upsides of electric cars is decreased maintenance costs leading to a decrease in per-km capital costs of driving. If this is true, unless induced demand from this causes people to drive more, EVs effectively will shrink the total car industry pie, leaving something less than 35x potential growth.

I don't think the decreased maintenance costs will actually happen initially. Big design changes like the shift to EV require lots of new parts to be designed, and every new part has a non-zero chance of a reliability issue. 5 years time, we'll be talking about the motor mount point which rusts through and causes a chunk of EV cars to fail. A 2nd effect is as cars get more computerized, 3rd party repairs will get muc…

Cars are already filled with computers. The ECU unit alone controls most of the functions. I am sure it only gets simpler in electric.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#99

Post by michaelt »

clouddrover wrote: post #38
joe-collins wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a robust charging network is a third dependency. You need to have a garage, or commute to someplace with or near a charger. Down here in San Diego (East County), I don't see a lot of the latter.

Or go solar and charge anywhere you have daylight: - Experimental Toyota Prius: https://newatlas.com/toyota-prius-solar-roof/60461/ - Sono Sion: https://sonomotors.com/en/sion/ - Lightyear One: https://lightyear.one/ Even if you're only getting a small amount of range from solar in Winter, that's still less charging that has to come from the grid.

A solar roof providing 3.8 mi of battery-only range per day isn’t going to replace the need for a charging network.

A 1.9 mile commute is what, 4 minutes drive?

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#100

Post by AgloeDreams »

want2know wrote: post #96

There are other problems arising for electric cars: road tax. Electric cars are way havier than most cars and have so much traction that road maintenance will be much more expensive when everybody has an electric car. This is why countries like Norway and the Netherlands are thinking about raising the road tax for electric vehicles. I also think this is why brands like Toyota are still thinking about hydrogen cars. T…

This is hilariously misguided with little real truth to it.

Are electric Cars heavier? Yes...but not really by much. Sure a Model S is heavy, but it is a full size car designed to compare with other 4000-pound range cars and a side effect of the platform's age meanwhile a Model 3 is less than 10% heavier than a BMW 3 series.

The traction idea is just absurd.

The real reason why Norway wants to raise the road tax is because the taxes they use on gas cars and gas itself is used to pay for road repair and if there are no gas cars then there is no road upkeep budget.

Also, Toyota wants to do hydrogen because they are materials-cheap, offer specific marketable advantages, and easy to build under current architectures enabling larger profits.

Post reply on HN