The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed • Hacker News Board

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#91

Post by mendelsd » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 11:26 AM UTC

nostrademons wrote: post #75

ppf wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Renewable" doesn't mean "free energy". Constructing renewable energy sources (wind, solar, etc) takes more energy than constructing an equivalent non-renewable energy source - this is the EROEI (energy returned on energy invested). There's also space limits - see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0W1ZZYIV8o What's apparent to me is that we live in a unique era where energy is abundant and cheap, which may never be re…

His conclusions seemed suspect to me - I remember doing out the calculations myself and came out with the conclusion that a 50x50 mile solar array in the Arizona desert could power the U.S. A 150x200 mile array in the Sahara could power the world. These are large arrays - they would be visible from space - but they are far from "country-sized", and quite doable if production costs come down (which they are - solar an…

The EROI literature suggests EROI needs to be much higher than 1 to sustain economic growth. Also, some estimates of solar panel (PV) EROI are as low as 3. This short article addresses both of these points: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S254243511...

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#92

Post by chvid » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 11:28 AM UTC

nostrademons wrote: post #80

locuscoeruleus wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To me as a casual observer it has always been obvious that the price of energy over the long term is going to zero. This is not at all obvious to this casual observer. Earth radiates heat away at a constant rate. We can never produce more energy than the earth radiates away, for obvious reason. With current trajectories we will release more energy than earth radiates away in less than 200 years. I'm not sure how th…

Earth radiates heat away at a constant rate only because Earth's temperature is approximately constant. Actual black-body radiation is governed by the Stefan-Boltzmann law [1], and is proportional to temperature^4. A small increase in temperature significantly increases the amount of energy radiated, which then serves to moderate the temperature. In practice, the total energy consumption of the Earth is bounded by th…

As I see it price is driven by our ability to consume energy and our ability to produce. The first part will peter out (you can only use so much heating, only so much transport) whereas the second part continues to grow long before we hit any sort of fundamental limit.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#93

Post by fulafel » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 11:42 AM UTC

A2017U1 wrote: post #78

chrischen wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

52 years is a blip in human civilization. I'd be curious to see how in the grand scheme the depletion of oil looks. Will our tech/development boom grind to a halt all of a sudden? Do we switch to nuclear?

Planes? There's no other alternative than biofuels unless you are happy landing every 2 hours.

Nuclear works too. The Burevestnik apparently (accorfing to WP) is flying a tubojet or turbofan nuclear engine.

Also conventional fuel can be made from pretty much any carbon using https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer%E2%80%93Tropsch_proc...

Hydrogen would also work vas a fuel.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#94

Post by fredgrott » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 11:57 AM UTC

govg wrote: post #44

vichu wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't be too concerned as renewables and nuclear technology should be at the point where it would be able to pick up the slack - we know the end is coming and we can prepare for it. An interesting thought experiment is whether or not humans (or some future species) would be able to reproduce the technological advancements that oil enabled given some sort of apocalypse scenario that resets us to year zero.

Oil isn't somehow magical in any manner - everything that oil does today can be boiled down to supplying kinetic energy. We don't use its chemical properties in any special way, it just happens to be among the most efficient in terms of calories per kg. With advances in battery tech, and large-scale shift to renewables, I think running out of oil is largely a non-issue in the long run (of course we'll have pains in s…

are sure? how many plastics including textiles would have to be replaced if we did not have the chemical properties of oil to create them? Any idea? I bet you are wearing at least one item of clothing with a textiel created with oil chemicals..such as nylon or others

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#95

Post by netwanderer3 » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 12:45 PM UTC

vichu wrote: post #38

chrischen wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

52 years is a blip in human civilization. I'd be curious to see how in the grand scheme the depletion of oil looks. Will our tech/development boom grind to a halt all of a sudden? Do we switch to nuclear?

I wouldn't be too concerned as renewables and nuclear technology should be at the point where it would be able to pick up the slack - we know the end is coming and we can prepare for it. An interesting thought experiment is whether or not humans (or some future species) would be able to reproduce the technological advancements that oil enabled given some sort of apocalypse scenario that resets us to year zero.

I remember watching a video in which it said how most current engineering jobs these days are really just destructive jobs.

They basically take an existing natural resource from the environment and turn it into another form of resource that human could make use of. But this in turn destroys that very same environment we human also live in, effectively wiping out ourselves in the process.

Those engineering jobs basically only convert one form of resource/energy into another, but they actually didn't create anything new out of thin air themselves.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#96

Post by jeanlucas » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 12:49 PM UTC

kgc wrote: post #29

senectus1 wrote: post #6

so when the Saudi start realising their spigot of unlimited money is starting to run out, i wonder how they'll behave. My bet is, invasion forces. I can hope though that they'll push for space industry

They might IPO their oil industry and diversify.

They are doing this, but using private investments. From solar to wave they're investing in energy, but also in lots of other investments.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#97

Post by bryanlarsen » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:17 PM UTC

chrischen wrote: post #23

lefstathiou wrote: post #9

So 52 years worth of reserves assuming maximum capacity of 12mm barrels harvested a day. Now I am no mathematician but given a 1-2mm per day average and what will likely become a declining demand for oil over next 20-30 years, they have half a millennia worth of oil lying around. This well seems like a non issue to me.

52 years is a blip in human civilization. I'd be curious to see how in the grand scheme the depletion of oil looks. Will our tech/development boom grind to a halt all of a sudden? Do we switch to nuclear?

The Canadian & Venezuelan oil sands have about 4 trillion barrels of "Original Oil in Place". At current oil prices and level of technological development, only about 10% of this oil is considered recoverable and as such counted as reserves. But technology marches on, and if we start running out of oil from other sources, so will oil prices. So really, the world has hundreds of years worth of reserves.

Much more concerning is that we have to keep ~80% of those 52 years worth of oil in the ground to keep climate change under the 2 degree goal...

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#98

Post by tinco » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:24 PM UTC

netwanderer3 wrote: post #95

vichu wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't be too concerned as renewables and nuclear technology should be at the point where it would be able to pick up the slack - we know the end is coming and we can prepare for it. An interesting thought experiment is whether or not humans (or some future species) would be able to reproduce the technological advancements that oil enabled given some sort of apocalypse scenario that resets us to year zero.

I remember watching a video in which it said how most current engineering jobs these days are really just destructive jobs. They basically take an existing natural resource from the environment and turn it into another form of resource that human could make use of. But this in turn destroys that very same environment we human also live in, effectively wiping out ourselves in the process. Those engineering jobs basica…

I think it is fair to say most engineers do not violate laws of nature.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#99

Post by D_Alex » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:56 PM UTC

nostrademons wrote: post #83

D_Alex wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is complete and utter rubbish. I do not know where you got this from, care to share? The US used to be the worlds largest net importer of crude oil since at least the 1950s, and only recently (2016 or 2017) got overtaken by China. The US is by far the largest consumer of oil, using circa 20 million barrels per day, while producing around 12.5 million. Besides China, no other country even uses as much oil as the…

I went digging. I found his claim repeated in a CNN article [1], but also found your claim backed up by government statistics [2][3]. His point was also backed up by a forward-looking government report, though [4]. Basically, the main differences were in products counted (CNN's headline includes natural gas and refined petroleum products as "oil exports", categories where the US is a heavy exporter) and in timescale.…

Good job on doing the research - let me comment as follows:

EIA publishes crude import and export figures directly, see here: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_snd_d_nus_mbblpd_m_cur....

The second line of the above reference shows crude imports at 7.25 million bbls/d and crude exports at 2.57 million, so net imports of crude oil are circa 4.7 million bbls/day. Even this surpasses India (4.5mmbbls/d) and Japan's (3.9mmbbls/d) total usage, and only China and the US itself use more. And of course the original claim that the US is a net exporter of crude oil is completely wrong.

The rest of the statistics needs to be read with caution - what EIA calls "petroleum products" is an odd bunch, ranging from ethane (gas) to petcoke (solid). Such products are not counted in production numbers of Russia and Saudi Arabia, for example, and are also, pound-for-pound, of much lesser value than crude oil. They have a disproportionate share in the US exports. High value products such as gasoline, diesel and jetfuel are consumed "at home".

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#100

Post by _khau » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 2:52 PM UTC

rat87 wrote: post #82

kbergqt wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the US supports another vile regime and its disgusting human rights practices and culture, namely Israel. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a measure that would codify into law a $38 billion aid package to Israel. Clearly the US is about many things but ethics and human rights are only fringe concerns, let’s not pretend that Saudi Arabia is their only shady ally.

> Well the US supports another vile regime and its disgusting human rights practices and culture, namely Israel. This is an incredibly stupid thing to say edit: This seems to be your only comment ???

Why is it stupid to say Israel is guilty of human rights abuses?