Presumably 64 bits were originally chosen because it still permitted simple or naive ASN.1 decoders to return the parsed value as a native 64-bit type. But ASN.1 INTEGERs are always signed, so theses serials would now have to be 65 bits. But any ASN.1 decoder interface that permitted directly storing a 65-bit value into a 64-bit type--even an unsigned type--is dangerous if not broken. I'm guessing that most X.509 man…
Yes, now certificates are about half as hard to hack as they were supposed to be.
The attack that we're talking about here isn't breaking a signature, but relies instead on being able to manipulate certificate data to generate a certificate with a known hash. That hash must collide with another certificate hash, which would then let you generate a rogue certificate.
A team demonstrated that this attack was possible by being able to issue a rogue cert by being able to predict the not_before and not_after on the certificate that would be issued, predicting the serial of the issued cert, and finding an input for the rest of the cert fields which caused a collision.
https://www.win.tue.nl/hashclash/rogue-ca/
So, yes 128 bit serials would be better, but we should be safe even at 63 bits of entropy.