Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began • Hacker News Board

Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#91

Post by xtreme » Sat, Dec 22, 2018, 3:46 PM UTC

marsrover wrote: post #37

Maybe I’m missing something or not thinking it through but why not pay people to have babies based on their status? It would cause more divide between classes but I feel like the ends might justify the means. Great education and job? You get paid more to have a baby. Homeless? You get paid nothing to have a baby. Put the payment on a sliding scale. The lower the birth rate the higher the pay until you cross your desi…

The problem is enforcing such a policy when people inevitably end up having babies without a "permit". What do you suggest should be done to those parents and the kid? Fining them doesn't help, neither does throwing them into prison. Putting up the baby for adoption would be tantamount to the government stealing your kid and I don't think you can convince people to stand for that.

Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#92

Post by jlawson » Sat, Dec 22, 2018, 3:48 PM UTC

parrot_11 wrote: post #74

parrot_11 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get what you're trying to say and I find it strange that the democrats in the US have hitched their strategy from improving quality of life of people to importing as many low income immigrants as possible who will vote for them. Makes you think how power hungry they've become.

Looks like my comment got flagged, would anyone care to point out where I was wrong or how my comment is any different from what is being discussed of the current situation in Japan?

Your last line about the Dems was kind of lame and pointlessly inflammatory; it gave an excuse to delete.

However, a number of comments downthread have also been rapidly flagged to death. The speed of it suggests a moderator has decided that his morals are so much better than others' that he has the right to silence others' views despite those views not breaking any rules.

It's common in any thread like this on HN. I suggest reading with showdead on (you can turn it on in your profile settings). You get a wider variety of opinions that way. It's nice to break the filter bubble.

In case anyone wants to avoid their own flag/ban, the hidden but eagerly-enforced rules seem to include:

-- You are not allowed to speak roughly when making a point against San Francisco ethics position (you're allowed to speak roughly in favor of SF ethics). (This is the hidden rule you broke.)

-- You are not allowed to give any notion that different population groups have any sort of characteristics distinct from each other (especially not IQ). Note that it's accepted in mainstream science that ethnic IQ differences can be consistently measured, but there is disagreement whether the cause is genetic or environmental, with significant support among scientists for both positions [0]. Basically, for moral reasons, HN requires that you support one side of this ongoing debate. It may or not be actually correct (scientists still arguing about that) but it is certainly politically correct. (Some commenters downthread broke this hidden rule).

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_intelligence

Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#93

Post by faissaloo » Sat, Dec 22, 2018, 3:50 PM UTC

beerlord wrote: post #69

eeZah7Ux wrote: post #21

In a world with 7.7 billion people, why are declining birth rates almost always described as problem?

Because the population is decreasing in high-IQ countries, where the vast, vast majority of humanity's economic, scientific and cultural output is generated, and increasing in low-IQ countries, which are typically stricken by famine, warfare, poor human rights (particularly for women) and foreign aid reliance.

Then things will simply have to change out of necessity, it's really quite simple. You don't seriously think people in 'low-IQ countries' aren't going to develop at astounding rates once the 'high-IQ countries' are gone right? Don't forget that modern western civilization came from the dark ages and modern Islamic civilisation came from the Islamic golden age. These things are cyclical, they come and go, there's really no reason to be panicking.

Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#94

Post by bayesian_horse » Sat, Dec 22, 2018, 3:52 PM UTC

fiblye wrote: post #73

bayesian_horse wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would that be better? If that worked, it will take 20 to 30 years to see any improvement in the workforce, but will cost a lot up-front. However, financial incentives have never worked. In fact, I don't know of a single political measure which has significantly raise birth rates. The only way that might work would be to discourage women's education, which of course nobody wants (I hope...). Children are massively…

>Children are massively expensive, especially to the parents. Parents, especially those who work, can't be "compensated" for the work, costs and risks of raising children. The motivation to raise children is entirely irrational from the perspective of the individual. So, essentially, no reasonable person would have children. Instead we should have an underclass of people who were, in your words, "irrational" enough t…

Nothing wrong with a solidly irrational motivation. The desire to become parents seems to be a neuro-biological thing, influenced by genetics, random stuff and psychological factors.

I don't believe that getting children for the greater good is a massive thing.

And again, there still is no proven way to increase birth rates short of authoritarian measures.

Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#95

Post by beginningguava » Sat, Dec 22, 2018, 3:53 PM UTC

kaibee wrote: post #54

madengr wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most immigrant households in the USA are on welfare. https://cis.org/Report/Welfare-Use-Immigrant-and-Native-Hous...

> A September 2015 report by CIS asserted that "immigrant households receive 41 percent more federal welfare than households headed by native-born citizens."[78] The report was criticized on the basis of poor methodology by Alex Nowrasteh of the Cato Institute. Nowrasteh said that the report opted not to examine how much welfare immigrants use, but to examine households led by an immigrant so that the report could co…

Cato is funded by the Koch brothers who love illegal immigration because of cheap labor

Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#96

Post by kwhitefoot » Sat, Dec 22, 2018, 3:54 PM UTC

madengr wrote: post #38

erpaa wrote: post #4

Recent social experiment (East/West Germany) proves one thing: people make babies, when their life is poor and dull. And on the global scale we can state that people make babies when they have no pension nor elderly care. And from nordic countries we can learn that free daycare is the baby killer number one. This is because you can make safely make babies "any time" and then you postpone it until too late. In America…

When Uncle Sam is the daddy, you can have as many as you want. 48% of births in the USA are paid by Medicaid.

> 48% of births in the USA are paid by Medicaid.

And close to 100% are paid for by socialised medicine and social security in Europe and Scandinavia.

So what was your point?

Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#97

Post by beginningguava » Sat, Dec 22, 2018, 4:01 PM UTC

sprash wrote: post #60

If the Japanese government wants to do the right thing, all it has to do is to let the population contract even further until Asset prices begin to freefall. Then everything will be affordable again for young Japanese citizens and a good longterm economic outlook for the future is the best thing you can do to stimulate birthrates. If Japan wants to screw it up, it should allow mass immigration. This way asset prices…

One of the better takes I've seen on the situation:

https://imgur.com/a/Zg32EAl

cheaper housing, higher wages, less crime, less pollution

The only people hurt by stable population are giant corporations who want cheap labor and more consumers. Japan will be fine, they'll just increase productivity with technology rather than throwing bodies at problems

US should solve the problem by giving bigger tax deductions to incentivize middle class to have more kids and free child care. But instead of the logical decision, our politicians tell us we need to bring in millions of immigrants

Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#98

Post by madengr » Sat, Dec 22, 2018, 4:02 PM UTC

kwhitefoot wrote: post #96

madengr wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When Uncle Sam is the daddy, you can have as many as you want. 48% of births in the USA are paid by Medicaid.

> 48% of births in the USA are paid by Medicaid. And close to 100% are paid for by socialised medicine and social security in Europe and Scandinavia. So what was your point?

Responding to the parent thread, that 1/2 of those parents don’t care about the cost of children; they pass it on to others.

Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#99

Post by nonamechicken » Sat, Dec 22, 2018, 4:07 PM UTC

bayesian_horse wrote: post #49

lotsofpulp wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having had experience in both cultures, I can’t imagine two more opposite cultures. One is extremely deferential to others, the other you have to think about yourself first otherwise you won’t get anywhere. At least in public interactions.

My maybe slightly pessimistic view of Japanese attitudes toward immigration is that they will try to keep the Indians in a state of limbo, ready to deport them at the drop of a hat. Which of course won't work at these kind of numbers, anyway.

The article mentions how they plan to handle it.

>The Japanese government, Maeda said, will be issuing Green Cards for highly skilled professionals, the first of its kind in the world, thereby, providing people to get permanent resident status in as short as one year. This is one of the fastest granted right of residence in the world.

Re: Number of babies born in Japan is the lowest since records began

#100

Post by Latty » Sat, Dec 22, 2018, 4:13 PM UTC

sprash wrote: post #60

If the Japanese government wants to do the right thing, all it has to do is to let the population contract even further until Asset prices begin to freefall. Then everything will be affordable again for young Japanese citizens and a good longterm economic outlook for the future is the best thing you can do to stimulate birthrates. If Japan wants to screw it up, it should allow mass immigration. This way asset prices…

> the native Japanese will eventually cease to exist

Uh, what?

After a generation, those immigrants will have children who are Japanese. Their native home will be Japan.

If your point is about ethnicity, then I don't see what the problem is. It's also ridiculous to suggest that Japanese ethnicity will cease to exist. Sure, you'd see more race mixing, but again, how is that a problem?

The US still has native American ethnicity, and that's pretty much as extreme as immigration gets - any modern immigration system is never going to have that level of disparity.

The quality of life for young people is not good in Japanese society right now, sounds like your motivation is more about preserving some notion of racial "purity" than anything that actually matters.