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I am calling a market top here with the recent flurry of plans to IPO. Market has been shaky recently and I wonder if investors/founders are trying to get out ahead of a complete meltdown.
Exactly. If they are not getting out now, they might not exit ever.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are enough economists that every possible prediction gets made. You shouldn’t lend credence to those who sow fear.
IIRC, it was a survey of at least almost a hundred economists and 80% said by 2020. I also read reasonings by Roubini who predicted the 2008 Great Recession correctly and Martin Feldstein at Harvard. They sounded quite convincing. Interestingly, I did not encounter any opinion by an economist that it is unlikely to occur before 2020. The flurry of upcoming IPOs is also partial evidence of what top VCs and executives…
For those saying this IPO is happening now due to market slowdown, Uber's CEO has been speaking of a 2019 IPO for a while[1]. I am not an investment banker, to me this seems far more pre-planned than a last minute rush before a heavy correction, no? For those who do know the space well, how far ahead would one be able to plan to time this right to happen to coincide with the current trends in the market? [1] https://…
Im sure execs at uber are collectively yelling at their council for fucking this up and being second - it has an immediate color of their IPO being secondary, reactionary, rushed, etc and thus impacts their price accordingly.
For those saying this IPO is happening now due to market slowdown, Uber's CEO has been speaking of a 2019 IPO for a while[1]. I am not an investment banker, to me this seems far more pre-planned than a last minute rush before a heavy correction, no? For those who do know the space well, how far ahead would one be able to plan to time this right to happen to coincide with the current trends in the market? [1] https://…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
IIRC, it was a survey of at least almost a hundred economists and 80% said by 2020. I also read reasonings by Roubini who predicted the 2008 Great Recession correctly and Martin Feldstein at Harvard. They sounded quite convincing. Interestingly, I did not encounter any opinion by an economist that it is unlikely to occur before 2020. The flurry of upcoming IPOs is also partial evidence of what top VCs and executives…
Ok. so what is the cause of this great recession? Nafta? China? What?
For those saying this IPO is happening now due to market slowdown, Uber's CEO has been speaking of a 2019 IPO for a while[1]. I am not an investment banker, to me this seems far more pre-planned than a last minute rush before a heavy correction, no? For those who do know the space well, how far ahead would one be able to plan to time this right to happen to coincide with the current trends in the market? [1] https://…
Companies usually start to think and prep about IPOs 2 ~ 3 years out. The actual IPO process takes 6 ~ 9 months. People have crammed the process into just 3 months! I built a tool [1] to help startups assess IPO readiness. It's kinda fun to run it against your own employer. [1] https://ipo-ready.com/
Sustainability is questionable for these firms. Ride hailing and similar services are more likely to evolve into local offerings. It is not a difficult business to replicate, technically, while regulation, infrastructure, social concerns can all be better addressed by local networks. A backlash is growing against exploitation of drivers and privacy weaknesses, which are natural results of the current global aspiratio…
Are they profitable? Last I heard they were losing quite a bit of money. [1] And even if they manage to squeak out a GAAP profit, I'm not sure if the business is sustainable. Given that a lot of the capital and operations costs end up on the books of drivers, it's harder to do the math for an end-to-end costs-vs-benefits comparison. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/uber-results/uber-narrows-lo...
They're not close to profitable. Recent quarterly losses: Q1: $601 million net loss Q2: $891 million net loss Q3: $1.07 billion net loss I'm not an accountant, but I'm not sure how this can go well for them.
The number of liquid millionaires in the Bay Area will be astounding come next year...
Something tells me property values are going up again. It's been a little weak lately but not after this.