After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

Post by Exuma » Tue, Aug 21, 2018, 7:53 PM UTC

orblivion wrote: post #55

oleganza wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin has been through at least 3-4 major "run ups" already. Those who do not look at the log chart think that "this time it's different" and Bitcoin will surely die for good. Later it'll crash from $250K to $50K and then it will certainly be the end. 2011: $1->$30->$3. 2012: $5->$15->$10. 2013: $10->$270->$80. 2013-14: $100->$1100->$250. 2016-2018: $500->$20000->$6000 (so far).

Your data shows that it's reasonably possible for it to spike again. However the sort of mockery of people who do think that it's different this time (and I see it all the time, it's not just you) is sort of funny. As if people who don't have faith in Bitcoin are somehow the naive ones. As if it's established wisdom by now, proven time and again through the ages, that Bitcoin always bounces back and outdoes itself by…

Post by sdf43543t345 » Tue, Aug 21, 2018, 7:55 PM UTC

jonas21 wrote: post #88

paulpauper wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

due to the mining aspect of bitcoin, unlike a stock, it does a a sort of floor, but that too can eventually fail

How does mining set a floor?

Post by nathan_f77 » Tue, Aug 21, 2018, 7:56 PM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #78

NickM wrote: post #72

Isn't this kind of thing the whole reason we have accredited investor laws? This might be an unpopular opinion, but if we want to protect people from themselves, maybe we should stop banning people from investing in private equity and start worrying more about exotic stuff like crypto. It seems utterly absurd to me that I'm not allowed to buy a single share of Uber or SpaceX, while sinking my life savings into whatev…

I'm unclear on why we wouldn't just ban both things. The reason you can't buy a share of Uber or SpaceX is, effectively, that those companies don't want your money . Both could easily do a public offering and admit you as a shareholder, but choose not to. Further clarity: I'm "accredited", and I don't think I can buy a share of either company either.

Post by sdf43543t345 » Tue, Aug 21, 2018, 7:58 PM UTC

lifeformed wrote: post #81

oleganza wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin has been through at least 3-4 major "run ups" already. Those who do not look at the log chart think that "this time it's different" and Bitcoin will surely die for good. Later it'll crash from $250K to $50K and then it will certainly be the end. 2011: $1->$30->$3. 2012: $5->$15->$10. 2013: $10->$270->$80. 2013-14: $100->$1100->$250. 2016-2018: $500->$20000->$6000 (so far).

And it'll keep going to quadrillions of dollars, right? Obviously there's a limit somewhere. It seems reasonable to think that $20k is already pushing it.

Post by JumpCrisscross » Tue, Aug 21, 2018, 7:59 PM UTC

abakker wrote: post #49

keymone wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is crazy. People don’t go from saving up 90k in their 40s to sinking all that into a gigantic lottery. Do they?

They do this when their 90k in savings isn't going to cut it in their retirement, or sending their kid to college. Desperation and duress cause people to make poor decisions, in finance, health, jobs, marriage. It is this fact especially where "advice" doesn't really help. I have not seen that coping with need , whether perceived or real is something people tend to do rationally. And, unfortunately, once you are in t…