Oooohhh yes! We are headed for a cliff. The orange piece of shit and his republicans bitches have poured money into economy on the up cycle. There are so much money around, people don't know what do with them and prices shot up like crazy. It's a frenzy. This will end in a spectacular crash.
Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020
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Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020
#92The combination of tax repatriation, tax cuts, and large-scale deficit spending (fiscal expansion) late in the economic cycle (recessions typically happen every 8 years or so, and the current expansion has been going on for ~10 yrs now) while the Federal reserve is raising interest rates (monetary 'contraction') is more or less unprecedented (we've never seen it happen in modern times in the US or any other large dev…
The so called business cycle is created by the FED itself. Left uncontrolled, the market will disconnect from reality and create bubbles that can destroy the economy, as it did in 1929. The unrecognized work of the FED is to increase the interest rates periodically to force these bubbles to pop and create a minor recession before they can collapse the economy. The real risk of this cycle is that the FED has already l…
> Left uncontrolled, the market will disconnect from reality and create bubbles that can destroy the economy, as it did in 1929.
And 1893, and a bunch of other times. But that might also be called the "business cycle". This nice tame business cycle that we've come to take for granted is created by the Fed; the sans-Fed business cycle was incredibly vicious.
Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020
#932020: policies put in place under this administration will come home to roost during the next administration, which will get the blame. This lag between economic policy and outcomes is a big reason the US has such a disingenuous public debate. Getting what you can in the short term, while being deceptive about long term effects, has become a good strategy. [1] [1] https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/12/18/opinion/republi…
" 2020: policies put in place under this administration will come home to roost during the next administration, which will get the blame." That has often been the case. Bush suffered through Clinton's internet bubble. then Obama suffered through Bush's real estate bubble. Trump now benefits from Obama's policies. We'll see what happens after Trump.
Trump benefits from Obama's policies by reversing them.
Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020
#94It’s quite an old trick in the book for any administration, whichever color it has, to try to push the can down the road until it gets re-elected. After that, it’s buyer beware. Something to consider is that in times like these money are flowing in the wrong direction, instead of going from developed countries (US, EU, JP) to developing countries with better return rates (Emerging markets) it is the other way around,…
With recent earnings, the stock market isn't very inflated. We have a long way to go until "bubbled-up"
Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020
#95[deleted]
Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020
#96My inner skeptic asks: What is Bernanke's record on predictions that he has made in the past? He said that subprime was "contained" in 2008, IIRC. The Mises Institute (an avowed hater of the Fed) has this, for example: https://mises.org/library/ben-bernanke-was-incredibly-uncann...
He was also part of the "2% is the new norm" Fed. His forecasting abilities have a poor track record
Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020
#97This is just another reminder to always have emergency funds in your bank account, not tied into the markets. Allows you to weather the storm, until things correct themselves.
I'd prefer not to lose money to inflation. If you're that paranoid store bullets and gold
Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020
#98I wish the money printing game ended. The longer it goes the rougher the finale will be, globally. 1.5 T USD will push inflation globally.
Inflation causes people to want to invest and move their money, it's not as as scary as the media would leave you to believe
Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020
#99Ok, say you believe this is going to happen. What the hell can you really do?
Options on the SP500, good luck with that in a bull market though
Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you're about to argue that there wouldn't be business cycles or depressions if we managed to overthrow capitalism, I don't think people are going to disagree with you lol
No, I’m saying that without the Fed and the federal government acting to rationally steer markets the markets will go off a cliff and not come back. Just like Bernanke said here. Regulators matter. When the government stimulates the already hot market with lax taxes and high spending it’s like pouring liquid oxygen onto a flame.
But that's demonstrably false. Pre-Fed the economy went off a cliff several times, and came back. Look at the Panics of 1857, 1873, 1893, and 1907.
Now, I think I agree with your larger point, that without the Fed this would be much worse.