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Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

ir.tesla.com

91–100 of 193 posts

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#91
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, investors are not that stupid. They might buy these marketing talks for a while but eventually they will see through. The recent drop in Tesla's share price is a testament of that. "You can fool some people all of the time, and you can fool all people some of the time, but you can't fool all people all of the time."

Price is a function of supply and demand. So this tactic is better than the blunt tactic even if it manages to fool only one shareholder.

Yes, it's about the ratio of shareholders you can fool all the time to the ratio of the shareholders you can't fool all the time.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#92
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. I don't really like Musk but sending positive messages in Investment relations is the key to keeping the company afloat. At one of my previous employers we lost top 4 customers and 10% of our revenue. But, the investment relationship site said - "We are up 1% in revenue, if we discount top 4 customers". If Tesla admits and says…

> then the stock price is going to drop like a rock Shouldn't investors know the truth about their investment? Give people a chance to keep their money if the are making a poor investment? (Im not saying Tesla is, but smoke and mirrors is a poor way to present your company to the public)

> Shouldn't investors know the truth about their investment?

Don't they? Tesla gave the raw numbers. Investors (should) use those to make up their mind.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#93
post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

> Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. I don't really like Musk but sending positive messages in Investment relations is the key to keeping the company afloat. At one of my previous employers we lost top 4 customers and 10% of our revenue. But, the investment relationship site said - "We are up 1% in revenue, if we discount top 4 customers". If Tesla admits and says…

> I don't really like Musk but sending positive messages in Investment relations is the key to keeping the company afloat.

Let's see how the SEC will like this line of argumentation.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#94
post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

Yeah, and you need more than 2 data points to claim it is exponentially. This is bullshitty PR. TO: 10 vehicles T1: 40 vehicles Is production growing 4x per T, or 30 vehicles per T?

But there WERE more than two points; surely you know that. Q4 was not the first quarter that Model 3s were produced. Q3 of 2017 is. So that's three points.

To use your example:

T-1: 2 vehicles

T0: 10 vehicles

T1: 40 vehicles

That is exponential. If it was only a linear ramp-up, that'd imply negative 20 Model 3s were produced in Quarter 3 of 2017.

You might think this is being pedantic, or that "exponential" is just a buzzword, but it's not: the point about exponential ramp-up is that if you're off by a factor of, say, 4x in production, that may mean you're only behind a few months. A relatively small time change corresponds to a very large difference in production.

Exponentials don't last forever; eventually a plateau is reached. But as you're bringing automation/production up, you're still in the exponential phase (as the data shows), and so small delays can make a big difference in production without telling you much about how many you'll produce once production is fully up and running.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#95
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And how many EVs would Tesla be selling without heavy subsidies and a Musk effect? Besides, selling a car of Tesla's quality would be embarassing to every company on your list. Well, maybe not Suzuki, but probably to them, too.

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisf... Tesla in fact ranks with Acura on quality, above Volvo, and just below Volkswagen and Ford. The low rating on Mercedes should be pretty embarrassing for them, they're merely one quality notch above Tesla and comparable to Ford.

Those rankings are pretty fishy. Acura is just a rebadged Honda and they rate completely different. Also Kia and Hyundai rate higher than Mercedes, Porsche and Volkswagen, which is completely against my experience with those brands.

FWIW it has Tesla scoring near the bottom of the pack with 37 points out of a possible 100, with the lowest entrant scoring 26 points.

Volvo is surprisingly low on that ranking, I know they are now owned by Geely but their brand still has 'super reliable' as an image here in Europe which again contradicts the ratings.

I'm not sure what the inputs were and what definition of reliability they have but I'm definitely interested in finding out more.

The FAQ is here:

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisf...

And I suspect that one reason more expensive vehicles drop like a stone on the report is because they are more complex and so there is simply more that can break, on top of that a person that pays $100K for their car is more likely to be dissatisfied when something isn't working perfectly.

You'll never hear a Kia owner complain about some detailing, but if you paid $85K for a Tesla then you would expect a certain level of quality and you'd be more likely to go back to the dealer for that reason alone if what was delivered wasn't perfect. So this report is as much about expectations and brands as it is about actual reliability.

My own - super simple - method of determining vehicle reliability is to look at second hand car website and to sort by descending mileage in yearly cohorts. That very quickly shows which cars are solid and which aren't. Yes, it is 'survivorship bias', but you can discount for that by weighing by the original number of vehicles sold of a particular model.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. I don't really like Musk but sending positive messages in Investment relations is the key to keeping the company afloat. At one of my previous employers we lost top 4 customers and 10% of our revenue. But, the investment relationship site said - "We are up 1% in revenue, if we discount top 4 customers". If Tesla admits and says…

No, investors are not that stupid. They might buy these marketing talks for a while but eventually they will see through. The recent drop in Tesla's share price is a testament of that. "You can fool some people all of the time, and you can fool all people some of the time, but you can't fool all people all of the time."

I agree investors are not stupid. But, I never said it was about investors being stupid. It is simply not saying stuff which casts doubt about Tesla's ability to deliver.

People are going to arrive at the conclusion irrespective. Take the GP for example, he/she correctly pointed out that Tesla is behind schedule. There is nothing wrong with that conclusion.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#97

I used to be one of the people who poked fun at Musk and suggested people short Tesla stock (as the valuation is crazy compared to the production and penetration numbers). But I am no longer that person. I read his biography (Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future) and this is a guy who genuinely wants to change things on a macro scale: opening up space, changing transportation. He is also a g…

Reading a book doesn't change fundamentals. Tesla is heading for a rough time, I sincerely hope they make it through and hope that Musk will not come to regret making that stupid joke.

How are they headed for hard times? I'm genuinely uneducated on the matter and want to know more.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#98
post #24
post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

I never expected Tesla to deliver the Model 3 on time. I just "delayed" my order to AWD because my Leaf lease is up before I'll get the 2WD Tesla. (Also, because my wife wants a minivan and Chrysler now offers a plugin minivan.) Remember, no car in history ever had 500,000 pre-orders. No car even came close. If anyone expected Tesla to ramp up to that kind of production overnight, they are delusional. Besides, when I…

The pre-orders are such a silly point.

Ford builds more pickups than that a year, with basically 0 pre-orders. They simply don't bother with pre-orders, they don't need the money, they don't need the promotion, etc.

Is the lack of pre-orders for the F-150 a sign of weakness? NO!, even though the thing is super popular they are able to produce enough to meet ongoing demand.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#99
post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

> Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. I don't really like Musk but sending positive messages in Investment relations is the key to keeping the company afloat. At one of my previous employers we lost top 4 customers and 10% of our revenue. But, the investment relationship site said - "We are up 1% in revenue, if we discount top 4 customers". If Tesla admits and says…

Stock price is mostly controlled by the sort of investor for whom figuring out a company's prospects is a full-time job for multiple days. PR spin matters, but you should expect the stock price to mainly reflect the numbers, not the spin.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#100

I used to be one of the people who poked fun at Musk and suggested people short Tesla stock (as the valuation is crazy compared to the production and penetration numbers). But I am no longer that person. I read his biography (Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future) and this is a guy who genuinely wants to change things on a macro scale: opening up space, changing transportation. He is also a g…

> Plus the deletion of the SpaceX and Tesla facebook pages, when told over Twitter they existed was pretty funny.

Wait, did Elon not know about them and then just got them deleted upon finding out?

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