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Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

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Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#91

Post by _dps »

leggomylibro wrote: post #80
adrianratnapala wrote: post #60

No idea if Mr. Thiel is right in this decade, but long term silicon valley has lost its main advantage: silicon. The physical business of building computer parts, especially chips, involves a lot of hard science and deep magic and requires a kind of priesthood steeped in that magic. SV's original success was built on this -- it got rich because it is where the silicon priests lived. But now things have evolved so the…

It's a shame that this happened, but you can see how it did. Those chips were built on the fervor of people imagining what we could someday do with them. They could create a connected world, solve and create so many problems on a global scale...it's not super surprising that their successors went on to do those things. What is surprising, and shameful, is how investors reacted, buying into the mania hook line and sin…

> There cannot be a Bell Labs ... [today]

Google's R+D arms are arguably in the same broad category as Bell Labs was when it started out. We just need to wait 50 years to see if we will view them the same way in hindsight.

Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#92

Post by CalChris »

leggomylibro wrote: post #80
adrianratnapala wrote: post #60

No idea if Mr. Thiel is right in this decade, but long term silicon valley has lost its main advantage: silicon. The physical business of building computer parts, especially chips, involves a lot of hard science and deep magic and requires a kind of priesthood steeped in that magic. SV's original success was built on this -- it got rich because it is where the silicon priests lived. But now things have evolved so the…

It's a shame that this happened, but you can see how it did. Those chips were built on the fervor of people imagining what we could someday do with them. They could create a connected world, solve and create so many problems on a global scale...it's not super surprising that their successors went on to do those things. What is surprising, and shameful, is how investors reacted, buying into the mania hook line and sin…

How is Fairchild Semiconductor so different from PayPal? Both have insanely influential and successful alumni. I could have picked General Magic (Pierre Omidyar, Andy Rubin, ...) but they are less well known.

How is Bell Labs so different from Google X? How is Bell Labs any different from IBM San Jose Research (SQL, photoresists, Gray+Agrawal, relational databases, reliable databases, ...)

Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#93

Post by 11thEarlOfMar »

adrianratnapala wrote: post #60

No idea if Mr. Thiel is right in this decade, but long term silicon valley has lost its main advantage: silicon. The physical business of building computer parts, especially chips, involves a lot of hard science and deep magic and requires a kind of priesthood steeped in that magic. SV's original success was built on this -- it got rich because it is where the silicon priests lived. But now things have evolved so the…

Two elements of 'Silicon' remain vibrant in Silicon Valley, even if the Fabs are all gone: First, the Design software and the design itself is still largely in place here. Companies like Cadence, Synopsis, Intel, nVidia, AMD, and many other chip firms still draw on Silicon Valley's work force to design the most complex chips.

Second, the equipment that is capable of fabricating the most complex chips is almost exclusively developed here. Companies like Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA-Tencor make the machines that perform mind boggling feats of physics and chemistry[0]. Those companies are currently dominating 3 of the 5 top spots for revenues globally. One of the other 5 is in the Netherlands (ASML), the other in Japan (Tokyo Electron).

So the actual fabs (along with their Superfund legacy) are gone. But the Silicon innovators are still here and thriving.

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4G8wXQGEBrA

Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#94

Post by ryuker16 »

derekp7 wrote: post #21
aaron-lebo wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He did say SV, which is probably true. Europe may or may not have the culture you are suggesting, China might have that hunger but no business started there is safe from gov control, Russia has that control without the economic growth, a lot of places are too small. But...there's probably a dozen cities in the US where you could get everything you can in SV (ok, maybe not the monoculture, the crazy VCs, the crazy cos…

I wonder why Chicago isn't more of a major destination for tech companies. The city is highly walkable, has excellent transportation infrastructure, and low cost nice housing is plentiful within an hour commute by train or car. You can get a nice house for less than 200k, apartment rent is around 600 - 1000 a month. In the city, there are a lot of old 3-4 story houses that have been converted to each floor being a re…

I work in tech here and I suspect it's becuase our early heavy hitters feel from grace: Motorola, Groupon, etc.

Imagine if Motorola was first to have a major smart phone get popular like the razr instead of Apple.

Seatlle has amazon and microsoft.....chicago has nothing comparable I think.

Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#95

Post by icu »

oh-kumudo wrote: post #45
icu wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is a funny one. For sure there is 'hustle'... I was scammed many a time in Beijing... But there is this really important cultral dimension in China called "guanxi". It's not easy to summarise the importance and pervasiveness of guanxi... from a Western perspective it could be described as corruption but it's more like a social currency that is involved in any important transaction.

Ahah, the old eastern asian vague social structure narrative. You'd be surprised how closely knitted Chinese companies are with SV, and how they replicated the SV in every possible way, even the interview process. So I will say guanxi is not an noticeable factor here. If you look back, how many SV startups are funded by people with a lot of resources, under the name of, networking? Does that count as your definition…

I'm happy to start a conversation as long as you don't resort to ad hominem which "if you are willing to come out of your idealogical(sic)/cultural bubble" certainly seems like.

Exactly why do you think I'm in an ideological or cultural bubble?

What personal experiences in China's new venture scene can you share with everyone on HN that does not involve guanxi at all?

Lastly I disagree with your assertion that guanxi is simply "connections" or "networks". Granted I am a westerner but I dealt with Chinese manufacturers and business partners for several years and my personal experience is that guanxi is much more than what you are implying.

Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#96

Post by ryuker16 »

acchow wrote: post #42
derekp7 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder why Chicago isn't more of a major destination for tech companies. The city is highly walkable, has excellent transportation infrastructure, and low cost nice housing is plentiful within an hour commute by train or car. You can get a nice house for less than 200k, apartment rent is around 600 - 1000 a month. In the city, there are a lot of old 3-4 story houses that have been converted to each floor being a re…

> apartment rent is around 600 - 1000 a month You can't really use this as an "advantage" since it disappears rapidly once it starts become a tech hub.

We have a lot of excess housing stock from the rust belt days and can build a lot more towers(not sitting on fault lines).

Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#97

Post by ryuker16 »

rm_-rf_slash wrote: post #24
melling wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He referenced China. Any big startups come out of there?

China is a different case. Any successful tech company will be ruthlessly copied and scaled in China by mercantilist policies which work quite well. But there are no Chinese brands that are widespread household names out of China. Even if a billion Chinese use renren the rest of the world uses Facebook (and maybe vk). Even if a billion Chinese use Baidu the rest of the world uses google (and maybe yahoo, in Japan, fo…

Look at your computer equipment...

Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#98

Post by [deleted] »

CalChris wrote: post #92
leggomylibro wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a shame that this happened, but you can see how it did. Those chips were built on the fervor of people imagining what we could someday do with them. They could create a connected world, solve and create so many problems on a global scale...it's not super surprising that their successors went on to do those things. What is surprising, and shameful, is how investors reacted, buying into the mania hook line and sin…

How is Fairchild Semiconductor so different from PayPal? Both have insanely influential and successful alumni. I could have picked General Magic (Pierre Omidyar, Andy Rubin, ...) but they are less well known. How is Bell Labs so different from Google X? How is Bell Labs any different from IBM San Jose Research (SQL, photoresists, Gray+Agrawal, relational databases, reliable databases, ...)

[deleted]

Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#99

Post by kamaal »

icu wrote: post #8

With the greatest respect for Mr. Thiel and his accomplishments I'm skeptical. I've travelled the world and my experience is that very few places in the world have America's, often irrational, can-do attitude, appetite for new venture risk, and societal acceptance of new venture failure as an important part of the entrepreneurial process. I just don't think it's that easy to graft these cultural norms to other cultur…

Most of this was because the top most talent of every third world company wanted and came to the USA. Once they arrived at the US, they used their disproportionate quality of human capital and combined with the immigrant zeal to prove themselves they can succeed at life by doing great things in a new country.

In the past the decade, it has become impossible for most of India and China's best people to come to the US due to very long Green card wait times.

From the Indian perspective alone. Billion dollar start ups and entrepreneurial ventures are popping up all over the country. Even a decade back this was impossible to even think of.

My guess is US is will gradually lose its grip being the economic super power of the world as China and India eat their lunch. It won't happen over a throw of switch, it will be a very gradual prolonged process.

Re: Peter Thiel: Silicon Valley’s monopoly on big growth tech companies is over

#100

Post by untog »

11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #30

One of the attributes of The Valley that are not easily reproduced is the forced cross pollination of knowledge and experience among the tech work force. This is forced through layoffs as companies, industries and the economy run through their cycles. This cross pollination leads to several outcomes: 1. the workforce is diverse in experience; 2. employees tend to work harder and longer hours in order to keep their jo…

I'm not convinced that is unique to the Valley. In fact, I think the Valley is significantly worse than many other places for cross-industry "pollination". Take New York - the tech industry stands alongside media, fashion, finance, intermingling with them all. By comparison the Valley is "pure tech", and that bubble sometimes shows.
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