Basic Income Research Proposal • Hacker News Board

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#91

Post by indescions_2017 » Thu, Sep 21, 2017, 4:15 PM UTC

My bias is that inherited wealth passed down down through the traditional family structure remains the greatest guarantor of multi-generational financial prosperity and stability. Even a single member of your immediate extended family attaining professional status as Doctor or Lawyer results in a higher probability of entry to the middle class for the entire family than any other indicator.

The big question proponents of Universal Basic Income must answer is: does direct stimulus of aggregate demand result in real growth? Is risk de-incentivized when a labor market participant is not required to work for marginal increases in "happiness"?

Taking our current central bankers experiments with quantitative easing (and now, perhaps, quantitative tightening) as a proxy for injecting liquidity into the system I think there is at least one evident result: bubbles forming in even the unlikeliest of places.

In any case, full support for YC's experiment and can't wait to see the data and results. Best of Luck and thanks for your vision and efforts!

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#92

Post by eric_b » Thu, Sep 21, 2017, 4:17 PM UTC

liquidise wrote: post #30

One factor that would be lost in a controlled, basic income test is the inflation effect. Implemented on a national scale, cost inflation of basic consumer needs is a near certainty. On a controlled test of 1000 people inflation would be nearly impossible to achieve without localizing the test to an absurd degree. I could see this test could serving as a dataset for calculating anticipated inflation rates on a nation…

Yep, basic consumer staple price inflation is something I never see addressed with any satisfaction when people are talking about UBI. Housing prices and rent will assuredly rise proportionally to the basic income amount if this were to be implemented nationally, so wouldn't pumping all this money in basically just have the effect of increasing inequality?

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#93

Post by function_seven » Thu, Sep 21, 2017, 4:18 PM UTC

ForRealsies wrote: post #39

vasco wrote: post #28

I would speculate that any end date on this scenario will invalidate results. What a person does if it is guaranteed a job for life vs 5 years is wildly different, as you'll need to make sure when those 5 years are up, you'll be ready to enter the job market again, etc. I believe the same will happen with basic income. If we want to study where people gravitate to more fulfilling jobs, feel happier and so on, you nee…

They'll have to train and prepare to enter the job market again? That's terrible!

If you’re attempting to study how a Basic Income would affect its recipients, then yes. It is terrible. It completely skews the behavior of the recipient in a way that a lifetime BI would not.

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#94

Post by gist » Thu, Sep 21, 2017, 4:18 PM UTC

jgalt212 wrote: post #75

It blows my mind that the allegedly smart SV elite think Guaranteed Basic Income will solve more problems than it creates. But maybe there much smarter than I, and they secretly want to create these problems so they can capitalize on them. Or maybe, they want to sap the proletariat of their drive so that the elite can remain the elite forever.

What is it? It's a bit of guilt, a bit of idealism and a bit of intellectual masturbation (for lack of a better way to put it). The fact is only someone who has their own needs taken care of at least monetarily (yc and/or the researchers on this project with secure jobs) can have the type of personality that will want to entertain themselves with this type of a project. Meanwhile, as they used to say back in my day growing up, 'children are starving in Africa so eat your food'. That was a reference to the fact that there were real problems in the world that needed to be solved today. Or in our own country right now. In other words they are spending time and money or something hypothetical (no jobs) instead of doing something today to help people that need help right now. Today. Not in 10 or 70 years. That's because they can't deal hypothetically and have success with today (or actually don't want to get their hands dirty) so they need to pick something in the future to occupy their available time and spend some of their money and get rid of guilt. In the end the 'guilt' refers to making then feel better about themselves for their extreme luck.

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#95

Post by chris_va » Thu, Sep 21, 2017, 4:18 PM UTC

guaka wrote: post #72

dsp1234 wrote: post #31

Just a bit of quick math[0]: ~323,000,000 total US population 77.2% over the age of 18 ~250,000,000 total over the age of 18 $12,000 per year per adult = $3,000,000,000,000 per year [0] - https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045216

Trillions. That's what's currently going around in quantitative easing. That's why many are calling for QE for the people. Instead of giving money to financial institutions, give it directly to the people. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing

There is a big difference between loaning $1T once, and getting paid back, versus giving it away every year.

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#96

Post by jrowley » Thu, Sep 21, 2017, 4:19 PM UTC

dsp1234 wrote: post #31

Just a bit of quick math[0]: ~323,000,000 total US population 77.2% over the age of 18 ~250,000,000 total over the age of 18 $12,000 per year per adult = $3,000,000,000,000 per year [0] - https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045216

Presumably, the amount given could be on a sliding scale, where more wealthy people receive less money, but I'm sure there would be challenges to such a system.

Personally, I'd love an extra 1k / month, but I rather see that go to a lot of other people before me.

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#97

Post by kolbe » Thu, Sep 21, 2017, 4:19 PM UTC

grecy wrote: post #60

dsp1234 wrote: post #31

Just a bit of quick math[0]: ~323,000,000 total US population 77.2% over the age of 18 ~250,000,000 total over the age of 18 $12,000 per year per adult = $3,000,000,000,000 per year [0] - https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045216

How much did that recent war cost?

About $500b a year.

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#98

Post by Keyframe » Thu, Sep 21, 2017, 4:20 PM UTC

One interesting thought, maybe, would be, as robotics/automation takes over and grows, is to introduce special automation tax from which BI could be partially (or fully?) funded? Maybe ti could alleviate some of the inflation concerns.

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#99

Post by Wildgoose » Thu, Sep 21, 2017, 4:22 PM UTC

Start small. Give very adult citizen the same fixed amount. Deduct that amount from existing welfare payments.

We now have a guaranteed universal Citizens's "Basic" Income, albeit at a very low level, paid for by taxpayers via the normal progressive tax system and which primarily helps the working poor.

Iron out all the inevitable implementation problems.

Then raise the level to the minimum level for welfare payments and remove a swathe of bureaucracy.

Observe the results while gaining a sensible Welfare System based upon "From each according to their ability, To each equally, with neither favour nor discrimination".

Adjust as necessary.

Re: Basic Income Research Proposal

#100

Post by nabla9 » Thu, Sep 21, 2017, 4:22 PM UTC

dsp1234 wrote: post #31

Just a bit of quick math[0]: ~323,000,000 total US population 77.2% over the age of 18 ~250,000,000 total over the age of 18 $12,000 per year per adult = $3,000,000,000,000 per year [0] - https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045216

It would not be an extra cost. It's just distributing money differently.

Most people would pay $1000 more taxes per month and get it right back as $1000 in BI. The benefit would be that if their income suddenly fluctuates, that $1000 would be there as a baseline.