Baby boomers are making it harder for millennials to buy homes • Hacker News Board

Re: Baby boomers are making it harder for millennials to buy homes

#91

Post by chii » Mon, May 22, 2017, 9:38 AM UTC

falsedan wrote: post #87

jrapdx3 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might be right, possibly housing prices could be higher. If in fact prices have stabilized or leveled out (it's sure hard to get up to date info of that kind), it suggests there's an equilibrium between increasing population and housing availability. The more housing the higher the population will go for any particular average housing price point. Simplistically, price = population/amount of housing. I think an i…

> building new housing attracts an influx of population You got this backwards: we build housing for the influx of population. People don't move to new places just to get a new house. They move for economic reasons, like they got a $150k software dev job in SF & don't want to commute 90 minutes each way, or they got evicted so the landlord could double/triple the rent. Regardless of whether SF builds now housing stoc…

> forcing existing, lower-income residents out to the periphery of the Bay Area.

but this should drive those who receive low income out of state, and thus lower the amount of worker available for low-income jobs, which in turn should drive up the wage?

Re: Baby boomers are making it harder for millennials to buy homes

#92

Post by falsedan » Mon, May 22, 2017, 9:43 AM UTC

joyofdata wrote: post #79

Why do Millenials need a house? How about a flat? And when they can afford it they just build a house for themselves.

Many people in their late 20s/early 30s are thinking about starting a family, and have the secure jobs to give them the financial stability they need for this. Raising small children in an apartment can be pretty stressful, and given the choice, I think young families would overwhelmingly prefer a house over an apartment (all other considerations being equal barring price). Plus, houses generally have 3-4 bedrooms, apartments 1-2.

But: apartments also aren't available! They're just as appealing to the downsizing boomer.

> just build a house for themselves

Where will they work? The places which have cheap land and labor generally are more removed from the economic hotspots. Or do you propose that they should take their job with them?

Re: Baby boomers are making it harder for millennials to buy homes

#93

Post by falsedan » Mon, May 22, 2017, 9:48 AM UTC

chii wrote: post #91

falsedan wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> building new housing attracts an influx of population You got this backwards: we build housing for the influx of population. People don't move to new places just to get a new house. They move for economic reasons, like they got a $150k software dev job in SF & don't want to commute 90 minutes each way, or they got evicted so the landlord could double/triple the rent. Regardless of whether SF builds now housing stoc…

> forcing existing, lower-income residents out to the periphery of the Bay Area. but this should drive those who receive low income out of state, and thus lower the amount of worker available for low-income jobs, which in turn should drive up the wage?

California is big, and moving costs can trap people in places they can barely afford. Fronting up the $600 to rent a U-Haul & take it to Nebraska can be a mammoth challenge. Plus, they need a job at the other end.

It's more likely that they would move to unregulated housing or live on the streets.

Re: Baby boomers are making it harder for millennials to buy homes

#94

Post by expertentipp » Mon, May 22, 2017, 9:50 AM UTC

timthelion wrote: post #68

kevinburke wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> fundamentally I wonder if the housing supply could even be increased enough to materially affect housing prices. Yes, it can; SF built 5,000 units last year, a record, and rents and owner move-in evictions finally declined. At the very least, building more housing can prevent further large price rises. > BTW this is what's happening here in Portland OR, where a building boom has been going on for years. The area po…

In eastern europe, we have Paneláky " rel="nofollow">https://www.google.cz/search?q=sidli%C5%A1t%C4%9B&source=lnm... and the housing prices are low in the panel houses and much higher everywhere else (though no-where nere US levels). You can even buy an apartment in a panel house an hour and a halfs drive outside of prague for $5000USD https://www.sreality.cz/hledani/prodej/byty/ustecky-kraj,lib...

> panel house an hour and a halfs drive outside of prague for $5000USD https://www.sreality.cz/hledani/prodej/byty/ustecky-kraj,lib....

From the photos alone I can smell the odor of alcohol and feel the depression and suicide looming in the air.

Re: Baby boomers are making it harder for millennials to buy homes

#95

Post by hamilyon2 » Mon, May 22, 2017, 9:59 AM UTC

mythrwy wrote: post #32

manyxcxi wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wholeheartedly disagree that land in the US is anyone's birthright, with the exception of people of native descent, and they (painting with a VERY wide brush stroke, I know) generally didn't believe in land ownership to begin with. I do agree that speculation has driven to some crazy things in the US housing market. Though I'm not against speculation in any market per se, when we see what banks, businesses, and oth…

I hear you and apologies for the rant. Down votes are entirely understandable as I don't care for radical sounding rants either. I'm not saying in in the US, nor concretely, but philosophically I think when a person is born they inherit the right to inhabit a piece of earth. You shouldn't arrive in the earth and not be able to sleep on piece of it without paying someone. I guess I feel that land in general belongs to…

Soviet leaders understood it. You move to new city to work: here is your new flat. You are working: here is your bread (and cinema, clothes…).

The thing is, supply and demand for all of them is quite unpredictable. Removing market forces leads to imbalances, improper resources allocation, and in the end deficit and even more suffering. So centralized system is clerly not an answer.

Re: Baby boomers are making it harder for millennials to buy homes

#96

Post by jaclaz » Mon, May 22, 2017, 9:59 AM UTC

I am failing to see an actual "weight" in the matter.

I mean: >Millennials also make up 42% of all homebuyers overall, first-time or not. And while baby boomers make up a much smaller portion of homebuyers, the two generations may end up competing for the same type of home, despite being in completely different phases of their lives.

WHO (which "group" they belong to) are the remaining 58% buyers? HOW MUCH is "a much smaller portion"? Let's say that the much smaller portion is 25%.

The amount of houses where there is (supposedly) competition between the two groups is then - at the most - 25%.

And since: >"Millennials buy a 1,800-square-foot home on average, and a baby boomer buys a 1,950-square-foot home. The other generations are away from those."

Any home smaller than 1,750-square-foot and any home bigger than 2,000-square-foot should then not be something these two groups compete for.

How many of these "suitabe size" homes are on the market? Do they represent 25% (or less than 25%) of the total amount of homes? So, what happens to the other 75% (or more)?

Re: Baby boomers are making it harder for millennials to buy homes

#97

Post by usmeteora » Mon, May 22, 2017, 10:11 AM UTC

randomdata wrote: post #37

jmclnx wrote: post #27

Not really the Baby Boomers fault, but bad decisions made over the past 30/40 years are coming to fruit. Right now only a hand full of cities have 'real' jobs and those cities have strict zoning laws (and NIMBY). So young people in the US, if they want to make any real $ need to move to those cities, otherwise all they will have are 'mcjobs'. I would not be surprised to see slums like the type seen in many poor count…

> if they want to make any real $ need to move to those cities This is the crux of the matter. The market always seeks equilibrium. If there is an income advantage in one location, people will move there, driving up costs in the process, until the point that there is no longer an advantage. Certain cities have held an advantage in earning ability for quite some time and the market is attempting to correct that dispar…

yeh but in this case you can't recreate the culture or advantages of silicon valley anywhere, you can go be overqualified somewhere else where people don't know anything about code and will pay you to do magic, but that's not a rewarding career and the amount of places like that relative to everywhere else, means it will take 100 yrs or so before the rest of the country rises to that equilibrium...

Re: Baby boomers are making it harder for millennials to buy homes

#98

Post by joyofdata » Mon, May 22, 2017, 10:14 AM UTC

falsedan wrote: post #92

joyofdata wrote: post #79

Why do Millenials need a house? How about a flat? And when they can afford it they just build a house for themselves.

Many people in their late 20s/early 30s are thinking about starting a family, and have the secure jobs to give them the financial stability they need for this. Raising small children in an apartment can be pretty stressful, and given the choice, I think young families would overwhelmingly prefer a house over an apartment (all other considerations being equal barring price). Plus, houses generally have 3-4 bedrooms, a…

> Raising small children in an apartment can be pretty stressful

this is precisely the entitlement I was hinting at - I was raised in an apartment - lots of my friends have been raised in apartments - I do live in an appartment (*1984) and we have many neighboors with children in our apartment building.

It is absolutely possible and also very humane indeed also to raise children in an apartment.

> But: apartments also aren't available! They're just as appealing to the downsizing boomer.

And this is just expressing the sad state of the US. The reason why there aren't enough apartments is not b/c of the babyboomers (also not b/c of migrants and Mexicans) - it's b/c your government fails to build them (I'm from Germany). Now you are stuck with a market in favor of people renting out own flats.

> Where will they work?

Not build at all - just live in an apartment or not move to super-hot-spot areas like LA or NY. If you can afford to build a house you can afford a car and you have to commute.

Re: Baby boomers are making it harder for millennials to buy homes

#99

Post by chronic940 » Mon, May 22, 2017, 10:42 AM UTC

mattmanser wrote: post #89

mcv wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does that count as near-Dubai speed? Amsterdam is building 50,000 appartments over the next 10 years, and that's considered not enough. But there's simply no space to grow here. These are the last few empty corners of the city being filled in.

But 50,000 / 10 = 5,000 per year, half the rate?

Lol

Re: Baby boomers are making it harder for millennials to buy homes

#100

Post by Retric » Mon, May 22, 2017, 10:44 AM UTC

jrapdx3 wrote: post #36

kevinburke wrote: post #23

I'm going to sound like a broken record here but there are policy and other decisions being made in the Bay Area that are restricting the housing supply and driving up the price of existing housing. You don't have to be a bystander in this process, you can help lobby for more supply. A list of propositions and legislation to support (SF, Brisbane, Mountain View, the CA state legislature) can be found here: https://ne…

The question I have has several parts, but fundamentally I wonder if the housing supply could even be increased enough to materially affect housing prices. Not saying that the housing supply isn't excessively restricted, but how much can restrictions be decreased and how much difference would it make? An analogy is building freeways to relieve traffic congestion. What regularly happens is that additional roads or add…

US population has continued to grow so individual new roads or housing will never be enough on their own. It's the rate of new roads and housing that's important. Consider the Big dig was extremely expensive and made significant long term impact, but another one would still help.