Scotland to seek second independence referendum • Hacker News Board

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#91

Post by k-mcgrady » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:53 PM UTC

byefruit wrote: post #6

What a legacy Cameron has left. Alienation of our nearest neighbours and the likely dissolution of the Union. It's also looking likely that Brexit will cause problems for the Northern Ireland peace arrangement.

>> It's also looking likely that Brexit will cause problems for the Northern Ireland peace arrangement.

This is the first time I've felt a border poll in Northern Ireland is a possibility. The recent election resulted in a huge swing in power and a hard border with the south would be devastating for a lot of people regardless of political persuasion. It'll be interesting to see how each part of the UK ends up in 5-10 years time.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#92

Post by matthewmacleod » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:54 PM UTC

edblarney wrote: post #73

srssays wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 2014, 55% of Scots voted to stay. If we are to learn the lessons of the Brexit referendum, you need consensus to enact any major change to people's citizenship rights. Consensus there is not.

" If we are to learn the lessons of the Brexit referendum, you need consensus to enact any major change to people's citizenship rights. Consensus there is not." UK citizens were never given a vote on their 'citizenship' rights in the EU. UK citizens only voted to join the EEC - not the EU. They voted to join what was essentially a 'trade block'. Not a supra-federal state. (UK citizens were not given a vote on the tre…

While that might be the case, the resounding pro-remain vote in Scotland at the EU referendum is convincingly a vote for EU membership. It's fair to say that there is a popular consensus that Scotland should be a member of the EU.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#93

Post by john61 » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:54 PM UTC

edblarney wrote: post #62

byefruit wrote: post #6

What a legacy Cameron has left. Alienation of our nearest neighbours and the likely dissolution of the Union. It's also looking likely that Brexit will cause problems for the Northern Ireland peace arrangement.

The people voted, not Cameron. One could argue that the root political problem is the EU itself. Nationalist movements are on the rise across Europe: The Dutch are about to give their top choice a pretty hard core 'anti Muslim' guy. The French will have a runoff between Le Pen and probably Macron. The Sweden Democrats are polling at 22%. True Finns have incredible influence. Austrian nationalists lost the presidency…

* Austrian nationalists lost the presidency by a tiny margin. *

46.21 % to 53.79 % is NOT a tiny margin.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#94

Post by k-mcgrady » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:57 PM UTC

edblarney wrote: post #62

byefruit wrote: post #6

What a legacy Cameron has left. Alienation of our nearest neighbours and the likely dissolution of the Union. It's also looking likely that Brexit will cause problems for the Northern Ireland peace arrangement.

The people voted, not Cameron. One could argue that the root political problem is the EU itself. Nationalist movements are on the rise across Europe: The Dutch are about to give their top choice a pretty hard core 'anti Muslim' guy. The French will have a runoff between Le Pen and probably Macron. The Sweden Democrats are polling at 22%. True Finns have incredible influence. Austrian nationalists lost the presidency…

>> One could argue that the root political problem is the EU itself.

I would argue it's the politicians. No matter what way you voted it's clear that the campaigns around the referendum were incredibly dishonest. Politicians were largely playing games to further their careers and were willing to say what they had to to succeed. We need to do something to ensure referendums deal only in fact because a large portion of voters have no interest in doing their own research and will vote on lies and propaganda.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#95

Post by hackerboos » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:58 PM UTC

arethuza wrote: post #28

pjc50 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that that's before the official start of campaigning. During the last campaign it went from something like 35% to 48%, partly due to how godawful the Unionist campaign was. I don't even know who they might get to do the No campaign who has any credibility in Scotland. The most sensible option is probably Ruth Davidson, so the most likely choice is someone like Blair McDougall. Labour will probably have to spend…

Too late - Corbyn already said that he is "absolutely fine" with a new referendum.

Honestly Kezia is the bigger reliability. She was actually quoted as considering independence in the even of Brexit.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/01/kezia-dugdale-i-c...

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#96

Post by andy_ppp » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 1:59 PM UTC

Can London please also seek independence and stop sending huge sums of money to the rest of the UK. I'd even be happy with the Euro or our own currency The London Pound. We might need to ask Donald Trump about building a wall though...

You might not even have to charge people who lived in London income tax, for example, due to the large number of companies based here.

;-)

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#97

Post by krona » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 2:03 PM UTC

planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

Furthermore, given the 99% fall in oil revenue since the previous referendum, the Union dividend (£9bn / year) and a deficit of 10% GDP, and state aid rules within the EU, the economic case for independence has dwindled, to put it mildly.

Politically, the case for independence is on the downside; both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson have higher net satisfaction rates than Sturgeon in Scotland, and the likelihood of a general election before EU exit is getting higher every day, but for other reasons. Peak Sturgeon has come 2 years too soon.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#98

Post by jankotek » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 2:03 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #47

planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

The currency question definitely needs straightening out, but Scotland will not immediately be forced to join the Euro; in fact Scotland can't formally join the Euro without spending two years in the ERM and meeting the convergence criteria with its own currency. Since meeting those criteria is pretty optional (and hard work!), joining the Euro can be postponed indefinitely. Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary…

Scotland is fairly small country, starting their own currency does not make much sense.

Monte Negro is using euro, and is not even part of EU yet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montenegro_and_the_euro

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#99

Post by k-mcgrady » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 2:04 PM UTC

aetherson wrote: post #46

planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

While I understand the truth that staying in the Pound is important to Scottish voters, I don't understand why. The Euro seems like a very close substitute to the Pound. They're both strong, largely un-inflated currencies that a sovereign Scotland will not control.

>> While I understand the truth that staying in the Pound is important to Scottish voters, I don't understand why.

I've always heard the argument that things are more expensive in the Euro. I know people in countries where they switched to the Euro and salaries remained the same while prices of goods went up. I'm not sure why this happens (or even if it's true) but it's a reason a lot of people are against losing the pound.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#100

Post by Someone1234 » Mon, Mar 13, 2017, 2:05 PM UTC

Disclaimer: I'm English.

One can hardly blame them. I was a unionist during the first referendum simply because I thought we were stronger together and felt that the Scottish made the UK as a whole more liberal (which, to be clear, is a GOOD thing).

But after Brexit one cannot blame or criticise them for wanting to leave. I want to leave too! If their choice is being part of a fairly progressive EU or a conservative/paranoid/racist English-Welsh alliance then they're better off leaving and trying to gain EU membership.

My only concern for Scotland is that they wouldn't be able to gain (re-gain?) EU membership then would be left out on their own for many years. So I definitely think the Scottish leadership needs to better plan out EU entry relative to the last referendum.

With or without Scotland, England is a sinking ship, better that other countries don't tie themselves to her mask as she flounders.