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The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

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Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#91

Post by SilasX »

problems wrote: post #7

People have been saying this kind of thing forever. They said it about agriculture, they said it when the Luddites attacked factories, they said it about farm automation, they said it when computers were becoming popular. I'm not so sure that this time is different - despite all the insistence, I'm sure it seemed just as serious every other time before too.

Right, but there really are dangers that fail to materialize until they do. That's not a reason to dismiss every danger that has always so failed.

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#92

Post by ameister14 »

lhnz wrote: post #44
Florin_Andrei wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Read things less literally and you'll be less wrong.

Can you explain what you mean? There seems to be little connection between the category of blue-collar work and programming other than it is a form of 'building'. The crux of blue-collar work is that it predominately involves physical labor and does not require 'skill'. That's not a literal interpretation, that's the core meaning -- programming is not analogous to physical labor or 'unskilled' work.

>The crux of blue-collar work is that it predominately involves physical labor and does not require 'skill'.

The former, yes - the latter, no.

A boilermaker or a welder is a blue-collar worker, but doing either requires a great deal of skill.

What it does not require is 'artistry.'

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#93

Post by andrewflnr »

gukov wrote: post #75

Every living organism is designed by evolution to strive for survival and reproduction. It's the constant fight that gets you out of the bed every morning. Having nothing to do all day but paint will eventually result in premature death. Think animals in captivity. What if the end of humanity will be caused not by a nuclear war but by a peaceful AI that made us zoo animals?

I think this is unnecessarily pessimistic. We'll find our fights, whether mountain climbing, video games, even gaining recognition as a painter.

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#94

Post by ryandrake »

sologoub wrote: post #70
crazy2be wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does come up? In the case of pensions and royalties, it is wealth from prior work, so it's not really in the same category morally (for a culture that believes in the virtue of work). Social security and inherited wealth definately do have a sort of stigma attached to them though, precisely because of the lifestyles that "trust fund children" tend to live, and because the poor are already stigmatized in general. T…

On "trust fund children", the lifestyle of a few loud examples is likely painting an unrepresentative picture to the masses. I'd love to see some real stats or study on people who inherited substantial wealth. On one hand, society seems to argue that inherited privilege perpetuates itself, which means that wealthy offspring are succeeding, sometimes despite their abilities. On the other, we have the stereotype of "tr…

It depends on your definition of success. The offspring of the wealthy tend to remain wealthy, regardless of whether or not they "contribute to society". If you consider wealth perpetuation success then they are succeeding.

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#95

Post by pygy_ »

problems wrote: post #7

People have been saying this kind of thing forever. They said it about agriculture, they said it when the Luddites attacked factories, they said it about farm automation, they said it when computers were becoming popular. I'm not so sure that this time is different - despite all the insistence, I'm sure it seemed just as serious every other time before too.

Tell that to the surplus horses that bootstrapped the pet food industry when Ford democratized cars...

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#96

Post by gozur88 »

TheSmiddy wrote: post #80
philipkglass wrote: post #43

That threat has many thinkers entertaining the idea of a universal basic income, a guaranteed living wage paid by the government to anyone left out of the workforce. But McAfee believes this would only make the problem worse, because it would eliminate the incentive for entrepreneurship and other activity that could create new jobs as the old ones fade away. Others question the psychological effects of the idea. “A u…

The idea that giving someone just enough money to live will kill their motivation is insane. If that were true why do people still work 40+ hour weeks when they could be earning enough to live on just 15? Most UBI schemes are initially targeting around 1k per month which is nowhere near enough satisfy the vast majority of people.

>If that were true why do people still work 40+ hour weeks when they could be earning enough to live on just 15?

There are all sorts of practical reasons why it's difficult to work 15 hours every week, the biggest of which is employers don't want to hire you. If you're flipping burgers, sure, but it's pretty rare to find that arrangement for a professional job.

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#97

Post by jedberg »

sologoub wrote: post #70
crazy2be wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does come up? In the case of pensions and royalties, it is wealth from prior work, so it's not really in the same category morally (for a culture that believes in the virtue of work). Social security and inherited wealth definately do have a sort of stigma attached to them though, precisely because of the lifestyles that "trust fund children" tend to live, and because the poor are already stigmatized in general. T…

On "trust fund children", the lifestyle of a few loud examples is likely painting an unrepresentative picture to the masses. I'd love to see some real stats or study on people who inherited substantial wealth. On one hand, society seems to argue that inherited privilege perpetuates itself, which means that wealthy offspring are succeeding, sometimes despite their abilities. On the other, we have the stereotype of "tr…

A good documentary on the subject: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8o46HH-TfNY

It's called Born Rich, and it's by Jamie Johnson, one of the heirs of the Johnson & Johnson empire. Ironically, he chose to do this endeavor despite not needing to work.

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#98

Post by ryandrake »

philipkglass wrote: post #43

That threat has many thinkers entertaining the idea of a universal basic income, a guaranteed living wage paid by the government to anyone left out of the workforce. But McAfee believes this would only make the problem worse, because it would eliminate the incentive for entrepreneurship and other activity that could create new jobs as the old ones fade away. Others question the psychological effects of the idea. “A u…

Basic Income will never be politically possible in places where it's culturally expected that a living must be "earned". It's more likely we'll end up paying 50% of the population to dig holes and paying the other 50% to fill them in, than implementing a basic income.

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#99

Post by battlebot »

TheSmiddy wrote: post #80
philipkglass wrote: post #43

That threat has many thinkers entertaining the idea of a universal basic income, a guaranteed living wage paid by the government to anyone left out of the workforce. But McAfee believes this would only make the problem worse, because it would eliminate the incentive for entrepreneurship and other activity that could create new jobs as the old ones fade away. Others question the psychological effects of the idea. “A u…

The idea that giving someone just enough money to live will kill their motivation is insane. If that were true why do people still work 40+ hour weeks when they could be earning enough to live on just 15? Most UBI schemes are initially targeting around 1k per month which is nowhere near enough satisfy the vast majority of people.

I don't know anyone who can live on "just 15"--most people are scraping by.

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#100

Post by wozniacki »

shams93 wrote: post #45
philipkglass wrote: post #43

That threat has many thinkers entertaining the idea of a universal basic income, a guaranteed living wage paid by the government to anyone left out of the workforce. But McAfee believes this would only make the problem worse, because it would eliminate the incentive for entrepreneurship and other activity that could create new jobs as the old ones fade away. Others question the psychological effects of the idea. “A u…

Exactly we could have a society oriented around the arts and sciences, pure creativity and discovery instead of bullshit jobs we could put the pedal to the metal in human freedom and innovation.

Putting aside our political slants, one might ask when exactly in the history of human civilization has any fraction of humanity ever consistently demonstrated that they were willing to devote themselves to the sole pursuit of "the arts and sciences, pure creativity and discovery" for any significant length of time?

If such instances existed, did those noble pursuits come without costs? To either themselves or others?

Say they did manage to exist in harmony with other civilizations (who may not have had any such lofty ideals or pursuits) then how long did they manage to keep doing so? [1] [2]

How long did they survive?

How long did their inventions or works of knowledge survive, in their intended forms?

In fact the evidence is to the contrary that when humans are bequeathed with a surfeit of riches and time to devote, they indulged in decadence, degeneracy and if nothing else sloth.

At which time, they were quickly wiped off by their geopolitical peers who placed a higher importance on self-preservation than they did on arts, science & discovery.

We like to think we have ridden ourselves from the shortsightedness of those older, less-prudent & ill-advised civilizations.

But really, on balance, have we?

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Peoples

[2] http://www.ancient.eu/Sea_Peoples/

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