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‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

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Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#91

There are a fair number of comments dismissing this issue with a "retrain or get left behind" and expressing not a lot of sympathy for those who don't. Remember, the average IQ in the US is just below 100[1]. Exactly what kind of jobs do you expect to retrain these people for? And how are they equipped to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps? Most of these jobs provided on the job training or apprenticeships so…

I agree with your diagnosis, but I fear the knee jerk reaction to solve it with government programs. In my mind, we need to do more lateral thinking on what can make value for the economy and why.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#92
post #49
post #2

Hasn't this been a recognized trend since the "jobless recovery" of 2009?

The actual research finds that this is a phenomenon associated with every jobless recovery (there have been 3 in the last 40 years or so): each time there's a recession that ends without restoring pre-recession jobs, the routine manual job market appears to take a permanent hit. Here's the chart from an earlier paper by the same authors: https://www.dropbox.com/s/782zelpi8r2nwua/Screenshot%202017-... So a big questio…

Thanks for the paper.

My understanding has been that it was due to stickiness in both wages and labor demand. That is, a recession is an excuse to cut wages/benefits/hours/headcount that managers either didn't care to cut or were afraid to cut in good times.

That, or it spurs managers to actually innovate and figure out how to do more with less.

If that understanding is even partially correct, it's ironic that labor laws designed to protect employees might actually be contributing to over-corrections in the labor market that directly hurt employees.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#93
post #86
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Well, who cares if they're retrained. They're not inputting in the economy right now, and before was minimal at that. So why should we invest in do-nothings and laggards and lazy peoples? We'll give money to the people actually doing things, like CEOs and company makers." --- Is that a good attempt at this new era of pro-trump, anti-worker hatred? Edit: Seriously now? This kind of commentary is very much on-topic. B…

Please try not to put words in the mouths of your opponents; it doesn't help anyone. Address their concerns, give them a new perspective, and try to understand why they really disagree with you. Despite your intuitions, you are not a better person than all 61.9 million Trump voters (or all 63.6 million Clinton voters).

I'm not "putting" words in his mouth. I have watched all 3 debates, a few televised rallies he did during the primaries. I also pay attention to his twitter feed.

My "intuitions" indicate that he attacked an Indiana union leader over not doing enough and being laggard. Oh, that's not an intuition, that's a recorded fact.

There's plenty other places I could cite from. But the underlying idea here, is that you don't become a business leader unless you walk on other people, crack some heads, and beat them. And yet, somehow he's supposed to think of the little guy? Which one of the countless people he's screwed over are you refferring to?

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#94

There are a fair number of comments dismissing this issue with a "retrain or get left behind" and expressing not a lot of sympathy for those who don't. Remember, the average IQ in the US is just below 100[1]. Exactly what kind of jobs do you expect to retrain these people for? And how are they equipped to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps? Most of these jobs provided on the job training or apprenticeships so…

I agree with your diagnosis, but I fear the knee jerk reaction to solve it with government programs. In my mind, we need to do more lateral thinking on what can make value for the economy and why.

What's a better idea than gov't programs for adult education / job training? Most companies aren't interested in investing the resources to retrain employees unless training lasts a few months at most.

Even market solutions will require a lot of gov't interference to work imo (things like job "mortgages" i.e. student loans for adults).

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#95
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Already is: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/world-ene... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/for-cheap...

That is not a complete Electrical system, just the panels which are only cheaper in area's with ideal solar output. Go north where there is less sun, and more clouds and the cost starts to rise fast, further Electrical Storage is a major concern since solar only works at most 12 hours a day, you have to something about the other 12. So no Solar is not cheaper when looked at in total cost to supply useable power to pe…

A carbon tax is not artificial; it's internalizing the environmental costs of using coal as a fuel.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hard to have much sympathy for someone who's strangling themselves with their own gender stereotypes.

Universalize that statement and apply it to X demographic not choosing a STEM degree and you'll find yourself in a struggle session.

So alter my statement and get a different meaning and outcome? Right-o.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#97
post #21

"To counter these trends, the U.S. must invest in raising the skills of the workers most likely to be affected by the disappearance of routine jobs..." Not sure how's that going to play out for example a welding machine operator can't become a mechanical engineer in a short span of time because those routine jobs are eventually going to be consumed by automated robots, per this study. Why not motivate people to look…

And for a welding operator to become a physical therapist is an even larger leap. Also, there's also a lot of resistance (and prejudice) in going from blue-collar to pink-collar, partly because care and health services are seem as feminine jobs(except doctors, of course).

There's a lot of hand wringing comments about the demand side but don't forget the supply side.

Jobs come with a lot of baggage. Could I make a good doctor in an abstract sense? Hell yes, I thrive at diagnosing complicated technical systems under pressure working closely with people. However I am sensitive to lack of sleep and when I inevitably kill someone during my training hazing when you have to work 36 straight hours without sleep, I'd... react rather poorly to having killed them over basically being too much of a coward to say F that hazing tradition. So I can't become a doctor. The problem would be the hazing but the firing paperwork would be some BS like culture fit, and I'm smart enough to predict the whole thing so I'm not even gonna try. A pity, I'd be a hell of a good doc.

Likewise we've loaded the psychology of nursing with certain baggage that only a fraction of the population is going to tolerate. The reason the supply of nurses is limited is not because we lack for the technical ability to learn to give sponge baths or ability to follow surgeons orders to assist them. I think we pretty much have all the people nursing who can fit the precise psychological cookie cutter of stereotypical nurse and folks who don't fit that cutter will have their money taken in classrooms but they'll get weeded out of the field. Leading to "how we gonna retrain these excess unemployable nurses?" and maybe we'll torture them with some other field requiring a unique unusual personality, like psychologist or chef, and when they fail that, we'll collect tuition retraining all of them to be ...

We're only allowed culturally to talk about changing employees never changing the employer or the workplace itself. Which is unfortunately the thing most needing changing now.

So its a forbidden thought to consider that the problem is we need to accept drill sgt like nurses and construction dude like nurses not just nurse like nurses. Or its a forbidden thought that I could become an ER doc without the required lack of sleep hazing. But if you want to actually fix broken systems sometimes you need to at least think about forbidden thoughts.

A world where its safe to question why a nurse can't tell a patient to F themselves when they need to be told to F themselves or where its safe to question why a new doc needs to go thru hazing at the cost of patient lives is a better world. Its not exclusively about convincing students to enter fields where everyone knows they're not gonna fit and then shrugging shoulders when they inevitably don't fit and wash out. Sometimes fields suck and need fixing.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#98
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is, for society at the very least, a "good thing". That depends on if you live in a society that believes people should be free to pursue their 'dreams' or in one that uses work as a measure of a persons worth. The US is the latter.

What's an example of the former?

Works of Fiction?

People pay lip service to letting people expand their horizons and bettering themselves right before they tell you to get back to work.

Simply because I said the US is an example of one way does not mean other country is an example of the other, which is what the OP I was responding to was talking about. The US is just one of the worst examples of your worth being tied to your work.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#99

There are a fair number of comments dismissing this issue with a "retrain or get left behind" and expressing not a lot of sympathy for those who don't. Remember, the average IQ in the US is just below 100[1]. Exactly what kind of jobs do you expect to retrain these people for? And how are they equipped to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps? Most of these jobs provided on the job training or apprenticeships so…

Here in Canada we have a place for all these people. Some even start and end their careers there. It's called the Public Service.

Re: ‘Routine’ Jobs Are Disappearing

#100
post #77
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current demand for healthcare is just phenomenal, with the supply barely meeting it in developed countries, and not so much in developing countries. Automation will most likely make it possible to have better skill division. e.g. a heart surgeon from the US could operate on a patient in Gambia, remotely. It seems unlikely that AI/automation would replace the surgeon altogether, at least in the next couple of deca…

Surgeons are but one small and very specialized part of the Health Industry, just because Surgeons may not be replaced soon (even that I can debate) does not mean the other jobs in Healthcare are as immune, GP's, Nurses, Lab Techs, etc are all targets. the comment I replied to was wanting to take People in Job A, and retrain them for Job B in healthcare as a second career do to Job A being automated. You are not likl…

> Surgeons may not be replaced soon (even that I can debate)

Which part would you like to debate?

Is it the "soon" part or do you believe the Surgeon role will be gone entirely?

Even with significant AI advances I'd argue that a Surgeon will still retain at least a guiding role (i.e. what to cut and what to do in case of complications) to the machine.

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