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Baidu’s self-driving cars begin public test in Wuzhen, China

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Re: Baidu’s self-driving cars begin public test in Wuzhen, China

#91

Post by soundwave106 »

ThomPete wrote: post #29
JulianMorrison wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People used to have jobs walking behind horses in fields, while the horses pulled ploughs and so forth. Pretty stultifying, dawn to dusk staring at horse's ass. A generation from now, manual driving will be viewed as maddeningly dull makework for human drones. Hours of staring at roads with instant death the punishment for dozing off? Wouldn't do it if you paid me. I'd have said, hopefully the world gets basic income…

How many of the horses have jobs today though? :) But sure I agree. That doesen't change that for some people their job is all they have. If you take that away they have no realistic future unless it's some post scarcity society.

The last time there was a huge technological upheaval -- the automation of farming -- there was a huge push for education that correlated with this, and that's what made a lot of the difference. Many of the state leaders in the high school movement of the 1910s and 1920s were farm belt states like Iowa and Nebraska. (http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/07/the-triu...). That really made the transition from agrarian society to manufacturing a heck of a lot smoother.

Unfortunately I really don't see anything near the push for education and training today. And that's an issue. I'm sure there was plenty of pains in the agrarian transition, but education gave an out that allowed the next generation to prosper. Without a good education or vocational training type system, it's not just the current generation of adults that might have pains with the automation transition, it's their kids as well.

Re: Baidu’s self-driving cars begin public test in Wuzhen, China

#92

Post by thomyorkie »

rubicon33 wrote: post #84
JulianMorrison wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People used to have jobs walking behind horses in fields, while the horses pulled ploughs and so forth. Pretty stultifying, dawn to dusk staring at horse's ass. A generation from now, manual driving will be viewed as maddeningly dull makework for human drones. Hours of staring at roads with instant death the punishment for dozing off? Wouldn't do it if you paid me. I'd have said, hopefully the world gets basic income…

How does "basic income" work? I have never heard it explained in a way that made any sense. Starting with a premise that resources are finite, you will always have power brokers who oppose the idea of spreading resources thin across the population. To think that would ever happen on a global scale seems as likely as us populating mars. It could happen, but certainly not in my lifetime.

I admit I haven't given it a whole lot of thought, but, for the US at least, I see it happening slowly over time as a smooth extension of welfare, not as some piece of landmark legislation. As automation increases and jobs become more scarce, more people will need welfare assistance. With strained resources the government will look for solutions such as an automation tax for corporations, perhaps less defense/military spending, etc. Taken to it's logical conclusion, I think you end up with something like a basic universal income.

Re: Baidu’s self-driving cars begin public test in Wuzhen, China

#93

Post by Animats »

dtnewman wrote: post #25

I worry about the regulatory aspects of getting self-driving cars off-the-ground in the United States. It is inevitable that self driving cars will make mistakes and people will be injured or killed as a result. It is also inevitable that people will be injured or killed as a result of people driving cars. But in the long run, it's virtually guaranteed that self-driving technology will result in safer cars and fewer…

Perhaps the fear of seeing the Chinese companies "getting there first" with self-driving cars will be an impetus for US regulators to create policies that are encourage the development of self-driving cars.

Government is way ahead of you there. The California DMV has been licensing self-driving cars for on-highway test for several years now. 19 companies have signed up. The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration had their meetings on regulations for self-driving cars last year and this year, and the proposed regulations are out. Basic rule: the manufacturer is responsible for all accidents of self-driving cars. Google and the big car companies are on board with this. Tesla has grudgingly accepted it.

Re: Baidu’s self-driving cars begin public test in Wuzhen, China

#94

Post by kpil »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #88
rahimnathwani wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd love it if all cars in China were self-driving. The road situation causes me stress whether I'm a pedestrian, cyclist or a car passenger (I don't drive here in Beijing). A few weeks ago, it took me over 3 hours to cover 16km in Beijing. It would have been faster to walk. The visible causes were: - Drivers in Beijing drive slowly when there's heavy rain - The sheer number of cars - Drivers in Beijing advance into…

China lacks road infrastructure in dense cities, and lacks the room to build what it actually needs. By moving to self driving cars from say taxis, road usage can be increased dramatically (closer following distances, faster speeds, cooperative traffic control). It isn't the cost of the driver that is the issue here, it isn't the same benefit as we are expecting for the USA. People in china are already ok with Uber,…

In Europe, during the 18th and 19th century, the kings and emperors decided that they wanted grand esplanades and straight roads so they could have nice parades, preferably between some nice castles or parks. So they just demolished everything that was in the way. But hey! Marching in cool hats!

I am not sure about U.S, but my guess is that the cities started to grow a little bit later, the people probably looked at the European kings cool-looking roads, and probably decided that they could do even better and just went for an even cooler looking grid instead just some avenues scattered here and there!

Re: Baidu’s self-driving cars begin public test in Wuzhen, China

#95

Post by hx87 »

rfghsfgt wrote: post #81
hx87 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there is little need for work, extrinsic incentives to work don't matter much. Intrinsic incentives (i.e. work is fulfilling) will be enough.

But that often isn't enough to get people to work on boring but necessary work.

> boring but necessary work

Sounds like a fantastic job for machines! Humor aside, even with UBI you will always increase your income and wealth if you put in extra work, unless some current schemes where your income stagnates or even falls if you earn enough to put yourself outside some arbitrary bracket.

Re: Baidu’s self-driving cars begin public test in Wuzhen, China

#96

Post by serge2k »

ThomPete wrote: post #4
hesdeadjim wrote: post #2

There is so much talk in the current rhetoric about the US losing its dominance in science and technology. But it is a tad myopic to not be excited about a country of a billion people pushing the boundaries of what is possible. It is not a zero sum game and we will all benefit.

How? How do the uneducated in the rust belt benefit? And perhaps more importantly when? I agree that technology for society in general make us better of over time, but society consists of individuals who don't necessarily benefit from this. In fact 12 million jobs are in danger of being lost to automated cars. How are they going to benefit from that?

Well step 1 is accept that the jobs are gone/will be gone and they aren't coming back.

Step 2 is on the TBD. We'll let you know when we promise. Just around the corner really. We promise.

I'm serious about step 1 though. Should be preparing now.

Re: Baidu’s self-driving cars begin public test in Wuzhen, China

#97

Post by hx87 »

grecy wrote: post #73
hx87 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We can't enforce that humans drive that way after they're licensed Wait, isn't that what traffic police are for? Sometimes I wish speed limits were universally removed so that police will be forced to enforce the other 99.99% of traffic laws more strictly.

> Wait, isn't that what traffic police are for? They just punish after the fact. I'm still able to make a poor driving choice that results in the injury or death of a bunch of people.

They also incentivize you to get your shit together before terrible things happen. After all, that's 50% of what punishments are for.

Re: Baidu’s self-driving cars begin public test in Wuzhen, China

#98

Post by serge2k »

JulianMorrison wrote: post #27
ThomPete wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How? How do the uneducated in the rust belt benefit? And perhaps more importantly when? I agree that technology for society in general make us better of over time, but society consists of individuals who don't necessarily benefit from this. In fact 12 million jobs are in danger of being lost to automated cars. How are they going to benefit from that?

People used to have jobs walking behind horses in fields, while the horses pulled ploughs and so forth. Pretty stultifying, dawn to dusk staring at horse's ass. A generation from now, manual driving will be viewed as maddeningly dull makework for human drones. Hours of staring at roads with instant death the punishment for dozing off? Wouldn't do it if you paid me. I'd have said, hopefully the world gets basic income…

> hopefully the world gets basic income and then a full leisure society sorted out

Your job is gone? Here just have money.

Dignity? Oh no see you don't need that. Just have money. What will you do all day in a world where people derive a lot of purpose from jobs and your basic income isn't enough to just do what you want? ummm... we could legalize pot.

Re: Baidu’s self-driving cars begin public test in Wuzhen, China

#99

Post by serge2k »

finid wrote: post #52
forgotpwtomain wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In fact 12 million jobs are in danger of being lost to automated cars. How are they going to benefit from that? Jobs are going to be lost anyways, whether from cars or from a different technology. Are you arguing the problem is that people aren't able to continue to do trivial things which technology can easily replace them at? Or that they will not have a relevant skill / source of income? If the former than we sh…

People seem to be too focused on jobs that will be lost because of automated cars/vehicles, but are not looking at the jobs that will be created because of that. Think back to when people were just becoming aware of computers and how they will change the workplace. The same arguments were made - high unemployment, etc. Look where we are today. Imagine a world without computers! I see the same for automated driving. I…

> finid 3 hours ago | parent | on: Baidu’s self-driving cars begin public test in Wuz...

People seem to be too focused on jobs that will be lost because of automated cars/vehicles, but are not looking at the jobs that will be created because of that. Think back to when people were just becoming aware of computers and how they will change the workplace. The same arguments were made - high unemployment, etc. Look where we are today. Imagine a world without computers! I see the same for automated driving. It will lead to the creation of more jobs than it will kill.

Not sure how you figure that.

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