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British Government loses Article 50 court fight

bbc.co.uk

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Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#91

Post by notahacker »

Khol wrote: post #46
cmdkeen wrote: post #20

Mrs May has a 14 point lead in the polls and justification to call an election were Parliament to block Article 50. Given the current state of the opposition, their leader, and the fact that many Labour seats voted Leave it is a pretty safe bet that the Conservatives could end up with a 100+ majority. The key thing comes down to what "block Article 50" means. If the Government decide to not give ground during the Par…

The issue here is that Theresa May cannot call a general election. The Fixed-term Parliament Act means that the only ways to call an early general election are if parliament passes a motion of no confidence in her majesty's government or a two thirds majority of MPs passes a motion to bring an early general election. (A third alternative would be to repeal the act.)

This is a purely theoretical obstacle. In practice, she could call a vote of no confidence in her government and order her MPs to abstain at very short notice.

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#92

Post by _delirium »

jlangenauer wrote: post #44
agd wrote: post #12

For those who don't follow British politics this is very significant. - Invocation of Article 50 is likely to be delayed from Q1 as the legislation will go through parliament and the (hostile) House of Lords. - A 'hard' Brexit is less likely due to incoming amendments from remainer MPs and Lords It also increases the chances of a general election before Article 50 is invoked if the PM feels that MPs will force too ma…

The problem is, of course, that how "hard" Brexit is, is not really up to the UK, or its parliament. It'll depend what sort of deal the rest of the EU is willing to strike, and unless either the UK is willing to compromise on allowing free movement of people, or the EU is willing to compromise on the indivisibility of the "four freedoms" - neither of which seems likely - then the Brexit is, in fact, going to be quite…

There are a reasonable number of MPs who support compromise on free movement, i.e. leave the EU but reach an agreement with the EU similar to the ones that non-EU members Norway, Iceland, and Switzerland have signed. That's one of the "soft Brexit" options. It's not guaranteed that the EU would accept this proposal, but it's something the British government could choose to seek.

Whether this is consistent with the referendum result is arguable either way I think. The majority of pro-exit campaigners, and most likely of Leave voters, were against free movement, with regaining exclusive UK control over immigration being one of the foremost demands. So a soft Brexit that retains free movement could be seen as not following the spirit of the outcome, even if it follows the letter of it (by formally leaving the EU). On the other hand, the Leave majority was quite slim, and a subset of the Leave voters, probably at least 10%, in fact did think they were voting for a soft exit to more of a Switzerland-style status. So it is probably the case that while Brexit, when asked about in general terms, had 52% support, if you explicitly specify "hard Brexit" including exit from the common market, support would drop. But none of this was made precise in the referendum question, so what the referendum outcome gave a mandate for is what's now being debated.

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#93

Post by mavhc »

koolba wrote: post #61
midgetjones wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really wish they'd stop calling it a "clear majority". I'm not sure when 52-48 was ever such.

> I really wish they'd stop calling it a "clear majority". I'm not sure when 52-48 was ever such. It's a majority though. If they wanted to have a higher threshold for the vote (say 60%) they should have done as much when writing the referendum.

Only 27% of UK people voted to leave, out of all of them.

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#94

Post by antocv »

Zelmor wrote: post #75

Isn't it a well known fact for everyone by now that leaving the EU would have dire consequences to England? Losing the shared market access, researchers not being allowed into shared EU projects, the European Stock Exchange moving from London OR London leaving the UK, Scotland leaving the UK, maybe even N. Ireland leaving as well to unify the island (erin go bragh by the way!). How would it be in the interest for any…

Someone should send a memo Bashar al Assad that "dire consequences" are a valid reason to postpone democracy.

In fact, democracy seems to be reserved only for use by western NATO powers, even when not respecting a democratic vote, while imposing democracy "with dire consequences" on the rest of the world.

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#95

Post by _benedict »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #24
agd wrote: post #12

For those who don't follow British politics this is very significant. - Invocation of Article 50 is likely to be delayed from Q1 as the legislation will go through parliament and the (hostile) House of Lords. - A 'hard' Brexit is less likely due to incoming amendments from remainer MPs and Lords It also increases the chances of a general election before Article 50 is invoked if the PM feels that MPs will force too ma…

MP's are in a hard place because of this. The majority of them are pro-remain, having concluded that brexit is damaging and dangerous and cannot result in a better deal. ... but they will be whipped into line by government (Tory) and party leadership (Labour) insisting that they follow the settled will of the clear majority of the people ... but the will of the people is neither settled nor a clear majority.

If you translate votes into parliamentary seats, the majority was much larger than the tally of the referendum. So it is very likely to happen with or without party whips, as the MPs would be denying the decision of most of their constituents still which would be damaging at election time. But this may result in a more moderate, softer Brexit.

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#96

Post by duckliffe »

ldjb wrote: post #59
nicolapede wrote: post #15

I think it was quite arrogant from Theresa May to decide not to involve the Parliament in the first place. People did not give a blanket mandate to her for implementing whatever she thinks Brexit means.

Parliament is involved in the Brexit process, including through the Brexit Select Committee. Politicians from across different parties will have their say on how the UK leaves the EU. However, the British people have voted to leave the EU, and it would be an affront to democracy if the will of the people were denied by Parliament. It would be unacceptable for Parliament to vote against triggering Article 50, so why e…

Because parliamentary sovereignty, which is the entire basis of our political system? Treaties are required to be ratified by parliament as I understand it, and I personally feel that activating article 50 should stand on the same constitutional footing.

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#97

Post by akhatri_aus »

pjh68 wrote: post #83
emp_zealoth wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can they be whipped into pary line? Isn't the worst that can happen to them exclusion from said party?

Or become party leader, as in the case of Jeremy Corbyn who defied the labour whip over 500 times.

Labour party members voted for him, not necessarily the leaders of the party.

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#98

Post by DominikR »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #24
agd wrote: post #12

For those who don't follow British politics this is very significant. - Invocation of Article 50 is likely to be delayed from Q1 as the legislation will go through parliament and the (hostile) House of Lords. - A 'hard' Brexit is less likely due to incoming amendments from remainer MPs and Lords It also increases the chances of a general election before Article 50 is invoked if the PM feels that MPs will force too ma…

MP's are in a hard place because of this. The majority of them are pro-remain, having concluded that brexit is damaging and dangerous and cannot result in a better deal. ... but they will be whipped into line by government (Tory) and party leadership (Labour) insisting that they follow the settled will of the clear majority of the people ... but the will of the people is neither settled nor a clear majority.

What does a "clear majority" even mean? A majority that you personally would accept? Like a majority of your favourite TV celebs and comedians like John Oliver agreeing that Brexit is a good thing?

The rules for the referendum have been set by the government therefore it has committed to follow these rules regardless of outcome. And the outcome has been clear for anyone who understands basic arithmetic.

This whole debate about how to best screw the voters reminds me of Stalin's attitude towards democratic elections.

The right wing in Europe is calling the EU the EUSSR for a very good reason!

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#99

Post by walshemj »

usgroup wrote: post #26
agd wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you've been following the case, this was not unexpected. Also the government have already confirmed they will appeal.

Yes, 2 minutes ago on the BBC :) I had not seen it. What do you think will happen at Supreme Court? Same again?

so? Parliament is sovereign here the UK supreme court is nothing like the US one

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#100

Post by sasvari »

zigzigzag wrote: post #85
zimpenfish wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...and the referendum was purely advisory which means they can do whatever they wish.

Theoretically, yes. That's sort of like saying the British army ultimately answers to the Queen so the Queen could run the country as a dictatorship if she wanted to. It's not an argument rooted in the real world though. Queenie would be gone tomorrow if she tried that. The vast majority of the British voters do not like the EU. Most voted out and of those who voted remain, about half were motivated by simple fear of…

in the face of an EU that's already committed to screwing the UK

Would you care to elaborate?

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