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Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

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Re: Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

#91

Post by thelambentonion »

marze wrote: post #66
thelambentonion wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I personally don't think that I have a lack of understanding of what Musk has claimed or SpaceX has demonstrated, and I'm incredibly skeptical of their ability to safely deliver on their promises within his proposed timeline. I'd quite like to be proven wrong, spaceflight is an area very near and dear to my heart, but from my point of view Musk's reach appears to vastly exceed his grasp. EDIT: I did enjoy the AMA tho…

thelambentonion, I can't help but notice your numerous posts expressing skepticism regarding SpaceX in this thread. I see a post in your comment history where you included a disclaimer, saying that you worked for a competitor to SpaceX. Does the fact that you aren't including any disclaimers in your posts now mean you no longer work for a competitor to SpaceX?

Ah yes; I sold out not-too-long-ago to go work in commercial software :)

I suppose it might be worth it to keep including the disclaimer, as it'a possible I may be biased in some way that I'm not consciously aware of. Although it bears mentioning that if my former employer made half of SpaceX's promises, I'd be twice as skeptical! So a point in their favor.

I hope I'm not coming off as too much of an asshole in these threads; I really do want to see commercial space flight grow and succeed going forward. It's just that my experience and the conversations I've had with current and former SpaceX employees gives me an unhealthy dose of skepticism regarding a lot of their claims.

Re: Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

#92

Post by M_Grey »

nickik wrote: post #83
M_Grey wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's good to see that the initial nearly religious fervor has worn off, and comments like yours can survive the voting process here. There are a number of issues with the "colony" concept, even beyond that excellent article, but until recently such a point was met with some version of fury. The general theme seems to have been that getting people excited, even with empty promises, was somehow virtuous and might lead…

What I don't understand about people like you is how you can still talk this crap. Musk has done incredible stuff already, he has shown multiple prototypes of what they are building. Sure, maybe they will fail, but I don't understand how you can call everything "empty promises". He promised a orbital rocket landing, he delivered. He promised a reusable rocket, this he is very close to as a used rocket was already did…

It seems to me that you've decided I fit some kind of preconceived archetype "people like you", which largely seems to consist of a lack of faith. "He's done X, why not Y?" Because when he promised X, he did so with a plan which accounted for the issues inherent in X. This is not the case for the orders-of-magnitude more ambitious Y.

"He's done incredible stuff, so take him at his word" is the kind of nearly religious suspension of logic I'm talking about, mixed with equally unfortunate hostility at the "unbelievers" (aka 'people like me'). That you end with a note of incredulity at the notion that I could have arrived at my viewpoints while fully informed walks the fine line between insulting me, and insulting yourself.

Re: Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

#93

Post by Animats »

Loic wrote: post #72
Animats wrote: post #69

There's a lot of hand-waving about how a base on Mars would operate. Remember the Biosphere II debacle, an attempt to build a closed ecosystem in a big dome. That was intended partly as a test for a Mars colony. They had a terrible time trying to stabilize their little ecosystem. They had far more resources at start than a Mars mission could carry, and were only trying to support eight people.

The one difference is that for Biosphere II they tried to be cut out of the Earth atmosphere. They tried to be totally autonomous. For Mars, they will mine the local resources so they will not be "sustainable" at first.

Mining will be tough. Water, if it can be found, will be in the form of brine ice mixed with perchlorate. It's going to take a lot of energy and equipment to get usable water out of that. Reverse osmosis and ion-exchange resins will work, but they have consumables which must be brought from Earth.

The atmosphere of Mars, such as it is, is mostly CO2. It takes a lot of effort to get oxygen out of that. Sunlight intensity on Mars is about a quarter of what it is on Earth, so solar panels and plants will have about a quarter of the effectiveness.

There are no easily exploitable resources on Mars. It's going to be more like an Arctic base - you have to bring almost everything.

Re: Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

#94

Post by TrevorJ »

javier2 wrote: post #86
thelambentonion wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The AMA, and even that specific question was all about the engineering challenges... Re: that specific question, I may just have a different view of what constitutes a question on engineering challenges. That AMA is of exceptional caliber, however, and there are definitely some gems to be found (see [0] and [1], in particular). The fuel tank and rocket tech represent novel advances in rocket tech that are as-yet un…

Which has been the case in all of Elons endeavours. They usually take twice the time at double the cost, and probably cost some marriages along the way. But he does get publicity and funds it out of his own pocket as far as he can.

A valid point. It's the case with most human endeavors that involve trying something new, I don't think it is unique to Elon's companies.

Re: Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

#95

Post by Symmetry »

ceejayoz wrote: post #53
icebraining wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but Elon Musk mentioned them as living spaces.

Everyone's going to appreciate the opportunity to wander a green garden in a t-shirt. Do it at night and you're getting a lot less radiation, and I'll wager it'll be a hell of a sky too.

My impression was that once you're down on the surface of Mars the radiation that isn't blocked by the atmosphere is mostly cosmic rays which don't depend on day or night.

Re: Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

#96

Post by MrZongle2 »

pmoriarty wrote: post #55

One serious danger I haven't heard anyone mention mention in regards to the Mars colonization project (though it was considered to some extent in Carl Sagan's "Contact" and probably some other science fiction) is the possibility of terrorism against either the fragile spacecraft or colony. Musk has said there will be no screening of the Mars colonists, and that anyone could go. That means someone who's mentally unsta…

"Musk has said there will be no screening of the Mars colonists, and that anyone could go."

I suspect that will go out the door as soon as a major funding partner demands otherwise, to mitigate potential risk to their investment.

Eventually, sure, the screening will likely become less and less invasive; but at that point we'll have hundreds of people on Mars and the launch/voyage will be routine.

I wouldn't take Musk's word as gospel here.

Re: Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

#97

Post by Neeek »

icebraining wrote: post #71
Neeek wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plants are living?

So you're saying that beyond everything else Musk is also making contributions to the marketing of greenhouses? Because "living space" is always related to humans, as far as I can tell.

Yes, thank you, my reply was tongue in cheek.

Though some other comments I think mentioned that it probably wouldn't be too dangerous to allow the occasional stroll through the greenery. Doesn't sound too far fetched if you consider I can choose to hang out at the park without a hat in exchange for an extra dose of UV radiation for the day. Not saying UV is on the same level as cosmic radiation, it's just something to think about :)

Re: Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

#98

Post by javiramos »

matt4077 wrote: post #61
javiramos wrote: post #5

Elon has a fantastic image. He is just an amazing PR machine.

He has also, you know, achieved stuff. Actual rockets, actually going up. There's a tendency of people to devalue the successes of others by attributing it to marketing. But for the life of me I can't find a way that would work to sell rockets to governments. Musk has also started at least three somewhat successful businesses, and at this point I don't think either marketing or luck are sufficient explanations. It re…

Didn't mean to demean Musk's achievements! He is indeed an amazing individual and I hope he continues to push space/cars/solars etc. forward.
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