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How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

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Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#91

Post by greedo »

madaxe_again wrote: post #17
steve19 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we're likely to see prices at the pump go up by orders of magnitude over a relatively short timescale Do you really believe that in a short period of time gasoline is going to cost a few orders of magnitude more... that's 1,000x the current cost? Post-fracking that's unlikely to happen. Prices may return to previous levels, but they won't move much more than that. Alternative energy will reduce demand for oil and t…

Orders of magnitude doesn't mean 1000x - just 10x is enough. As to fracking - the wheels have already fallen off, low oil prices forced a production hiatus, stop/start is inefficient and costly, and you need only look at the headlong rush in the UK that kinda petered out to get an idea of where fracking is going - nowhere. The fossil sector is in big, big trouble - this chaotic oscillator will not stop until the mark…

Wishful thinking, and backtracking as well. Magnitude change isn't 10x, and short of an increase in taxation, the idea that my current $2/gal gas will become $20 is just inane.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#92

Post by JulianMorrison »

I confidently predict, in my lifetime,

- Nearly all cars will be electric.

- Nearly all cars will be self driving.

- Nearly all cars will be Uber, or something like it.

- Exceptions to the above will be owned by the same sort of people who currently own Ford model Ts. They will be lovingly maintained, proudly exhibited, and illegal to drive on the public highway.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#93

Post by treehau5 »

S_A_P wrote: post #43
pmontra wrote: post #13

A car sharing service in Milan, Italy, is using small two seater electric cars from China. Prompted by this article I finally investigated and found them at http://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/China-eec-l7e-80-elect... They're quoted with a maximum price of $8000. They're definitely made for driving inside a city. Not very good suspensions (don't drive too fast on cobble stones) but good torque (easily beats a gas…

I feel like the size = safety is fallacious. Size can equal safety, but its not a guarantee. Sure I would not want to get hit by a 3 ton lifted SUV with ranch style bumpers on it. I would feel that way even if what I were driving was a 3 ton suv with the same bumpers. There was an NHTSA video a few years back of a modern chevy impala hitting a 1959 impala and the much larger 59 getting demolished, while the new one h…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLfK35O91gE a honda fit versus a honda accord of the same year. It's pretty clear which one would take less damage.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#94

Post by mark-r »

epistasis wrote: post #69
mark-r wrote: post #49

Such an interesting premise, such a flawed assumption... An electric car shares most of its parts with a gas one, so you can't expect any savings from economies of scale there. Going back to the Model T for the cost curve is just laughable.

An electric car has far fewer parts, simplifying the supply chain. Also the battery in an EV is a massive amount of the cost, and will be dropping on its own curve. I've been reading this guy for years, and complaints like yours are typical, but Naam has been far more right than his critics in the time I've been watching. If he feels this is a conservative estimate then I believe him. He didn't show his full work on…

It's certainly believable that an electric car could someday cost less than a gas one. My only beef is in the methodology of calculating the magnitude and timing of the difference, which has a lot to do with whether this will be a disruptive technology or not.

If he's publishing some silly analogy instead of his actual reasoning, then he should expect it to be dismissed out of hand.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#95

Post by dragontamer »

icebraining wrote: post #26
gregwtmtno wrote: post #25

The author believes that electric cars will be better for ride sharing services than gasoline cars because the cost per ride is cheaper. I'm not sure I agree. Unlike private cars, shared cars are in use many more hours per day and charging time versus gasoline refill time should be considered.

Three years ago Tesla already had a robot that could replace a battery in 90s: https://www.teslamotors.com/videos/battery-swap-event

Yeah. Except no one can figure out how the system would work.

The Roadster's battery pack costs $28,000. The Tesla Model S's battery pack is expected to cost $10,000+ AFTER the efficiency of the Gigafactory in 2020.

Swapping out a $10,000+ part and sharing it between cars is going to be a major, MAJOR business / economic question. How do you do it fairly? How do you ensure that the quality of the battery remains the same? Can people cheat the system?

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#96

Post by lazylizard »

pmontra wrote: post #13

A car sharing service in Milan, Italy, is using small two seater electric cars from China. Prompted by this article I finally investigated and found them at http://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/China-eec-l7e-80-elect... They're quoted with a maximum price of $8000. They're definitely made for driving inside a city. Not very good suspensions (don't drive too fast on cobble stones) but good torque (easily beats a gas…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6NhuIS1RAE

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#97

Post by patrickk »

grandalf wrote: post #58

When you buy a car in the US, most of what you pay for is fancy molded plastic and attractive sheet metal work, cleverly organized by the manufacturer into trim level "tiers" intended to create maximum perceived value. The package is then financed or leased with incentive financing and the sights are set on getting you to replace it after 2-4 years whether it needs to be replaced or not. I think a 6 passenger mini-va…

You might be interested in: https://localmotors.com/vehicles/

You could use a standardised software like with a raspberry pi to provide entertainment and more: http://imgur.com/a/9Xpil

With Chinese sourcing, it could be possible to drive down the components cost even more (e.g. http://www.aliexpress.com/category/34/automobiles-motorcycle...). Obviously you need to be careful about quality, but bulk buying for a reliable supplier would really help drive down costs. You won't get the fanciest latest-gen stuff, but it would get the job done for simpler components like knobs and switches.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#98

Post by grandalf »

patrickk wrote: post #97
grandalf wrote: post #58

When you buy a car in the US, most of what you pay for is fancy molded plastic and attractive sheet metal work, cleverly organized by the manufacturer into trim level "tiers" intended to create maximum perceived value. The package is then financed or leased with incentive financing and the sights are set on getting you to replace it after 2-4 years whether it needs to be replaced or not. I think a 6 passenger mini-va…

You might be interested in: https://localmotors.com/vehicles/ You could use a standardised software like with a raspberry pi to provide entertainment and more: http://imgur.com/a/9Xpil With Chinese sourcing, it could be possible to drive down the components cost even more (e.g. http://www.aliexpress.com/category/34/automobiles-motorcycle... ). Obviously you need to be careful about quality, but bulk buying for a reli…

wow, wasn't familiar with that project! very cool.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#99

Post by djrogers »

nathan_long wrote: post #56
blisterpeanuts wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the real test is how survivable the vehicle is in a collision. Probability of suffering an accident is a separate discussion. If your family is T-boned in an intersection by a drunk driver who ran a red light, are you going to say, "Well, at least the odds of that happening were very small, since she rarely drives!" No, you're going to be dealing with serious injuries or possibly deaths and you're going to be say…

Once, I was driving about 65mph on a state highway and a car pulled out of a farm road right in front of me. I had one or two seconds to react and swerve around them. They were probably going 10mph when I passed them. I was driving a Toyota Camry. If I'd been driving a large truck, I probably couldn't have avoided the crash. When I buy a car, I want to know both how likely it is that I can avoid a crash (manueverabil…

> To say that the weight of your car is a safety factor but stopping distance isn't is just silly

Size is not the same things a weight. Crumple zones are what size buys you in modern vehicle design, and you don't have to have a heavy car to have nice big cushy crumple zones.

This discussion started about size, not weight.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#100

Post by Shivetya »

When they perfect the fuel cells stack technologies then electric cars will get cheaper. The issue with batteries is their power to weight ratio is not good. Who wants 400kg of batteries added to the mass of every car?

BMW did show the direction the market will go to overcome that weight, composites for the rest of the car. Aluminum was good when it came about but composites are the only future.

I do think the 100 mile range city car is a good opportunity to exploit provided they get it to city car sizes (read: Smart) and make it cheap that its such a viable alternative you cannot say no. In the US this would be 10k to 12k new pricing but specifically they would always be leased which would further increase affordability. The key to acceptance is getting people to accept a smaller package single purpose vehicle

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