This is awesome. I am aware of the math behind, but this really made it much simpler to use. And also to make complex models.
Introducing Guesstimate, a Spreadsheet for Things That Aren’t Certain
91–96 of 96 posts
Re: Introducing Guesstimate, a Spreadsheet for Things That Aren’t Certain
#92I would be much more interested if this product were "choose probability density function centric." Then, the Monte Carlo engine would gain much more interest. Being able to choose or specify arbitrary distributions, and then run simulations, would be valuable. Of special interest are non-continuous distributions. How often have normal distribution reasoning failed in finance? Put another way, a user should be able t…
Guesstimate is napkin math. It makes no sense to spend an inordinate amount of time fine-tuning the distribution when both the distribution and its parameters are just best guesses. The important part is the propagation of uncertainty across many dependent variables, and the normal distribution is often good enough for that purpose. Whenever it isn't, for me that'd be a sign to use a proper statistical model instead. MCMC was invented to do inference on models of arbitrary complexity, with however much or little data you might have.
Re: Introducing Guesstimate, a Spreadsheet for Things That Aren’t Certain
#93Isn't how all software should be written? Expressions that represent a set of all possible values, effectively replacing the need for types. Surely, such a platform would make building an app 100 times easier. Not that building apps is a good use of our resources.
I can kinda imagine it but can you elaborate on the part about getting rid of types?
By replacing types with arbitrary expressions, you could go beyond just having a list of integers. You could have a list of odd numbers, a list of words starting with "A", a list of ages over 18, a list of prime numbers, a list of at least 5/items, a list of all integers (infinite), etc.
You can only access index N of a list whose type expression proves that it has at least 5/items. You can only access the fields of objects that are proven not to be null. You can only give as input to a function that expects an odd number a value whose type expression proves it to be an odd number. Basically, you can never have runtime exceptions.
Re: Introducing Guesstimate, a Spreadsheet for Things That Aren’t Certain
#94Earlier quoted context omitted.
I can kinda imagine it but can you elaborate on the part about getting rid of types?
By replacing types with arbitrary expressions, you could go beyond just having a list of integers. You could have a list of odd numbers, a list of words starting with "A", a list of ages over 18, a list of prime numbers, a list of at least 5/items, a list of all integers (infinite), etc. You can only access index N of a list whose type expression proves that it has at least 5/items. You can only access the fields of…
You are talking about dependent types (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dependent_type) and only a few theorem-proving languages support them.
Re: Introducing Guesstimate, a Spreadsheet for Things That Aren’t Certain
#95I would be much more interested if this product were "choose probability density function centric." Then, the Monte Carlo engine would gain much more interest. Being able to choose or specify arbitrary distributions, and then run simulations, would be valuable. Of special interest are non-continuous distributions. How often have normal distribution reasoning failed in finance? Put another way, a user should be able t…
Why would you need Monte Carlo? Can't you combine probability density functions through convolutions (or other tricks with integrals, like Fourier or Laplace transforming and then using straight arithmetic)?
Re: Introducing Guesstimate, a Spreadsheet for Things That Aren’t Certain
#96Earlier quoted context omitted.
In this case it looks like the spreadsheet is mostly for laying out the variables in a nice orderly table/grid.
I'd say in all cases that is what the spreadsheet is for. Otherwise use R.
Seems people will always find ways to turn their data into grids :-/
Also, use pandas ;-)