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Global warming has accelerated significantly

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Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#891

Post by bjourne »

tarr11 wrote: post #162
eykanal wrote: post #3

For those (like me) who don't know the authors, apparently they are well-published authors in the field of climate science whose work is very highly cited: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C39&q=gra... Not a perfect measure of whether this is a reputable article but at least readers should know this isn't from some randos in a basement somewhere.

It says this in bold red at the top - "This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal." I am not a climate scientist - how should I think about this statement? Normally I am looking for some statement that shows a document has been vetted.

Pre-prints exists because it can take up to 18 months to get a paper published in a journal or reputable conference. Since lots of people can publish pre-prints[1] what you should think depends on the authors. If they have a record of publishing good research you should think highly of the paper.

[1] - Actually, there are hoops on pre-print repositories, such as arXiv, so not everyone can post there. I guesstimate that 99% of the public has no means of posting on arXiv.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#892

Post by brewdad »

fasterik wrote: post #843
Kiboneu wrote: post #813

Let’s not pretend anymore. The uncomfortable truth is that that people in affluent countries don’t want to change their lifestyle. Affluent countries are less affected by global warming than countries responsible for a fraction of global emissions. All the emissions from manufacturing follow suit.

It's not primarily a lifestyle issue, and the problem is no longer primarily developed countries. Per-capita carbon emissions in developed countries have decreased 30% in the past 20 years, and energy demand has remained relatively constant, in fact decreasing slightly in some places due to increases in efficiency. Meanwhile, developing countries like China and India are projected to account for 35-40% of total globa…

China and India currently make up 35% of the global population. So saying they account for 35%of emissions is to be expected.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#893

Post by m4x »

transcriptase wrote: post #428
pinkmuffinere wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No offense, but internet opinions are a dime a dozen -- do you have some special experience / credentials in this area? The arguments you provide are all just the sort of thing that PhD students would study, and incorporate into their models. I'm inclined to believe the experts, but if you _are_ one, and are saying with authority that these effects are missed, that is a much more interesting story.

Would a PhD student incorporate something into their model that flipped their results from agreeing to disagreeing with the premise that has not only practically become a religion, but forms the foundation for more and more funding flowing into their field each year? Would they really want to risk being basically excommunicated from their area of research for daring to provide ammo to “climate change deniers”?

This is rather disingenuous. It can be hard to overcome momentum in research, but most researchers would be giddy with excitement if they could show our (extremely disturbing) forecasts regarding climate change are wrong and that things are much rosier than expected.

I also suspect you would find easy funding from existing climate change deniers. There is no shortage of well-heeled folk in that space.

Do you have a chip on your shoulder regarding research? You're begging the question by stating it is conducted in a "practically religious" way. Ask whether that's true before you question the effect it would have on somebody's behaviour.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#894

Post by bjourne »

timr wrote: post #868
eykanal wrote: post #3

For those (like me) who don't know the authors, apparently they are well-published authors in the field of climate science whose work is very highly cited: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C39&q=gra... Not a perfect measure of whether this is a reputable article but at least readers should know this isn't from some randos in a basement somewhere.

Setting aside the names of the authors, this is a very bad paper. They take temperature data sets, "adjust" [1] them by attempting to remove the biggest recent factors (volcanism, solar and el nino cycles) affecting temperatures , then do a piece-wise regression analysis to look at trends in 10-year chunks. This is just bad methodology, akin to what a junior graduate student with a failing thesis might do to find sig…

Your summary of the article is wrong. The authors model temperature using time series over solar irradiance, volcanic activity, and southern oscillation. They calibrate that model using time series over global surface temperatures. This allows them to isolate and remove each of the three listed confounding factors. The resulting time series fits a super-linear curve -> accelerating global warming.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#895

Post by fasterik »

budududuroiu wrote: post #864
fasterik wrote: post #843

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not primarily a lifestyle issue, and the problem is no longer primarily developed countries. Per-capita carbon emissions in developed countries have decreased 30% in the past 20 years, and energy demand has remained relatively constant, in fact decreasing slightly in some places due to increases in efficiency. Meanwhile, developing countries like China and India are projected to account for 35-40% of total globa…

> Meanwhile, developing countries like China and India are projected to account for 35-40% of total global emissions in the next decade, far outweighing the impact of individual lifestyle choices in the West. Sure, but that's still mostly driven by Western demand for... Stuff. I'd like to see that share of global emissions if the West was still industrialised and didnt rely on China to be its factory

80% of China's manufacturing output is consumed domestically. Of the goods exported from China, only about 15% go to the United States. While that still represents a lot of exports in absolute terms, it's simply false to say that it's "mostly driven by Western demand for stuff".

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#897

Post by iLoveOncall »

yanhangyhy wrote: post #875

The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) outline draft has listed making new and significant progress in building a Beautiful China as one of its main objectives, with achieving the carbon peaking target on schedule being a crucial aspect of this goal. In 2020, China made a commitment to the world: to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Last year, China announced…

China is already so much ahead in some aspects.

I'm literally in the plane flying back from Shanghai right now, where cars have blue plates for petrol cars and green plates for electric ones.

Easily 70% of the cars on the road are electric, and basically all of the scooters used for deliveries.

The roads are so quiet it's sometimes dangerous because you don't hear the scooters come behind you.

They'll undoubtedly be the world leaders in clean energy.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#898

Post by yanhangyhy »

iLoveOncall wrote: post #897
yanhangyhy wrote: post #875

The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) outline draft has listed making new and significant progress in building a Beautiful China as one of its main objectives, with achieving the carbon peaking target on schedule being a crucial aspect of this goal. In 2020, China made a commitment to the world: to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Last year, China announced…

China is already so much ahead in some aspects. I'm literally in the plane flying back from Shanghai right now, where cars have blue plates for petrol cars and green plates for electric ones. Easily 70% of the cars on the road are electric, and basically all of the scooters used for deliveries. The roads are so quiet it's sometimes dangerous because you don't hear the scooters come behind you. They'll undoubtedly be…

https://youtu.be/WZKbEj39gEw

Remind me of this video

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#899

Post by iLoveOncall »

nairoz wrote: post #335
standeven wrote: post #303

The main driver of this is human-produced CO2, and there are meaningful ways to reduce usage. -Switch to an electric vehicle -Migrate from gas appliances (range, furnace, water heater) to electric (induction, heat pumps) -If your power grid isn’t clean, add rooftop or balcony solar -Encourage friends and family to do the same

And don't fly

Flights represent 3% of CO2 emissions. It's nothing. A tiny drop in the bucket.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#900

Post by iLoveOncall »

standeven wrote: post #303

The main driver of this is human-produced CO2, and there are meaningful ways to reduce usage. -Switch to an electric vehicle -Migrate from gas appliances (range, furnace, water heater) to electric (induction, heat pumps) -If your power grid isn’t clean, add rooftop or balcony solar -Encourage friends and family to do the same

The number one solution is obvious and I don't know why nobody talks about it: mandate work from home whenever possible.

Daily commute represents 20% of CO2 emissions, it's an insanely high number, and it has an incredibly easy, already tested thanks to COVID, solution.

People will say "but what about the shops that will close". They won't, they will relocate in residential neighborhoods where people now live AND work.

All the potential issues people might raise actually disappear as WFH becomes the new normal and not a potentially temporary state like it was during COVID.

Even if only 50% of jobs can be done from home, that's an instant 10% reduction JUST from commute. But in reality it'll lead to a much larger decrease, with less spending on fast-fashion, more proximity businesses, etc.

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