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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

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Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#891

Post by Saline9515 »

lpcvoid wrote: post #871
Saline9515 wrote: post #856

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't like "Kremlin influencers", that said the Streisand effect is real, and the slope is very slippery from here to include other people along the ride. Will we also sanction Elon Musk and other pro-MAGA individuals after the current rift between the EU and the US? Why not include Chinese ones, too, who are actually quite active? Also, far-right influencers? Far-left? They are nazis/communists after all! Or, if y…

I find the hate speech laws good. They enforce a certain decency in communication, something that MAGAs lack. >Will we also sanction Elon Musk and other pro-MAGA individuals after the current rift between the EU and the US? Why not include Chinese ones, too, who are actually quite active? Also, far-right influencers? Far-left? They are nazis/communists after all! Fantastic idea, unironically. But IMHO the far left is…

So you defend freedom of speech, but not for the people and the ideas you don't like. That's not freedom of speech, and you have a lot in common with Putinists on that matter.

They also sanction who they perceive as western assets, by the way. And see nothing wrong sending dissidents to jail with similar vague hate speech laws that we have in the EU [0]. In fact, they even eradicated their far-right! [1] Navalny was prosecuted because he was "extremist", for instance.

So how do you feel being in such ideological proximity with Putin's Russia? Just like others, you enjoy gloating about feel-good "values" but don't believe at all in them, which would require some discomfort and radicality.

[0] https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/freedom-and-restriction-s...

[1] https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2017/12/16/the-death-of-t...

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#892

Post by [deleted] »

troad wrote: post #756
elAhmo wrote: post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't believe people actually bring BRICS in serious discussions.

HN is great for technical discussions, but is below average for political or macroeconomic discussions. A HN comment thread on those topics is essentially indistinguishable from a NYT comments section, which I mean as an unfavourable comparison. Turns out that being good at SQL does not make one good at the subtle social art / science of power and governance. If anything, the correlation is inverse. This shouldn't be…

[deleted]

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#894

Post by Y_Y »

linkregister wrote: post #882
Y_Y wrote: post #843

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm afraid you may have misunderstood. The SDR is a time-varying basket of USD, EUR, RMB, GBP, and JPY. At time of writing Afghanis are not part of SDR, even though Afghanistan owns some SDR.

Thanks for the clarification. The hyperlink you gave was to the general IMF website and did not contain an in-page search hit for "RMB," "Renminbi," or "China". Where can one find the size of the RMB allocation? Presumably the IMF is not bound by the typical RMB capital controls that limit its utility for commercial entities and individuals.

12.28%

I found that information at the top of the linked page, which I just checked again was indeed the page about SDRs. Maybe they're doing some stupid redirection that's browser dependent.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#896

Post by datsci_est_2015 »

roenxi wrote: post #829
datsci_est_2015 wrote: post #819

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nobody sane would believe that invading a country promotes regional stability. Then you should read about some of the biggest influencers in US foreign policy since WW2. There’s one guy whose entire career was spent essentially trying to convince the president / military brass to bomb enemies into submission: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curtis_LeMay I’m sure you’ve also heard of Henry Kissinger. Anyway, pretty st…

Are you suggesting that LeMay or Kissinger believed that invasions promoted regional stability? On what basis? When Kissenger wanted stability he famously promoted détente with Russia and negotiating with the Chinese. Kissinger did a lot of evil stuff, but a big part of his thinking was when he wanted an area wrecked he sent in an army, and when he wanted stability he negotiated.

Nah more that there’s plenty of history of influential American policymakers being convinced of a certain strategy’s effectiveness only to be proven wrong by history and in the process completely obliterating peoples and countries.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#897

Post by tomashm »

Personally, I’m selling my U.S. stocks and bond holdings in my pension portfolio. Partly because I see them as a risk, and partly for moral reasons: I don’t want to support what I see as the current U.S. oligarchy. I'm also sad to say I've also bought 4 Teslas until I realized how bad things are, but I'll send no more money in that direction from now on, and I try to convince people I know to do the same.

Our company cloud infrastructure at Azure has already been replaced by VPSs at Hetzner in Europe.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#898

Post by RGamma »

mullingitover wrote: post #888
etruong42 wrote: post #874

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(As a US citizen self-identified moderate) I think I understand some of the intentions of de-dollarization. Being the reserve currency is an exorbitant privilege of forcing the world to allow the US to essentially print money that the world ends up using. It is not a privilege that "the average American" gets to enjoy for many, many reasons. It might be telling that no other nation is trying to fill that role of rese…

The thing is, either some country is going to be the world's referee, or we're going to descend into a lot of regional conflicts with a million dead here, ten million dead there, forever, or we will see rampant nuclear proliferation. My money is on the last possibility. Honestly that might be the best outcome, even if it's the riskiest. A nuclear-armed Ukraine never would've been invaded. A nuclear-armed Taiwan will…

> even if it's the riskiest Future ancient history: How one loose screw ended the anthropocene.

We may fare better with super intelligent AGI as the ultimate referee. It is developed with similar urgency as nuclear weapons were after all.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#899

Post by kipchak »

jollyllama wrote: post #872
kipchak wrote: post #767

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Couldn't you make the same case for every other former reserve currency which has had something replace it?

Prior reserve currency failures involved currency collapses. I think Gresham accounts for this. Looking at the particular mechanisms of collapse, I think they all involve a failed transition to fiat. Can you name another example of a currency that survived the transition to pure fiat (i.e. not backed by metals in any respect)? The dollar did this in the 70s and continued to increase its dominance in the decades that…

I agree the dollar is uniquely successful, but the Pound ended convertibility in 1931, and limped as a reserve currency into the 70s. While not a reserve currency, another example is Chinese currencies like the second zhiyuanchao going off silver convertibility, which lasted for a bit over 50 years.[1]

When the Dutch for example did try to go off a metallic standard it was essentially a last ditch effort as they were completely broke. The US on the other hand had the advantage of still controlling global trade/it's military, liquid markets and the petrodollar system. The dollar's floating exchange rate also served as a release valve, allowing devaluation to occur gradually over the decade that followed versus all at once.

Re a dollar collapse I see a gradual shift towards a more multipolar world with no clear singular reserve currency and no currency which eclipses the dollar as more likely than a collapse or eclipse. For example where the Americas still primarily transact in dollars, the Yuan becomes an increasing percentage of belt and road trade, and the Euro in it's sphere.

[1]https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/rise-and-fall-paper-money-yua...

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#900

Post by cco »

cogman10 wrote: post #768
cco wrote: post #752

I strongly encourage interested folks to read Miran's "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System" (I won't link directly since it auto-downloads a PDF). Miran, and his thinking, clearly have this admin's ear and they're following many of the prescribed steps in his white paper. To the T frankly. So if you're surprised by the USD devaluing by 10% last year or the immense pressure to drop the fed rate t…

Peter Navarro is the idiot whose mostly pushing the Trump economic policies. I say idiot, because he is really a complete and total crackpot. He's written a couple of papers where he cites himself on uncited principles as if they were ironclad economics. A flat earther to an astronomer is what Navarro is to an economist. He is anti-trade and pro-isolation. He actually wants the US dollar to lose it's status as a worl…

Yup! I too was befuddled at why the admin was purposefully devaluing the dollar, but well, like you said, they tell you plainly if you go read and listen to them.

Make decisions accordingly folks! They want the dollar down >30% from where it was when they took over, we're about 1/3 the way there so far, be prepared for more.

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