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Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#891

Post by thunky »

hdgvhicv wrote: post #871
Gravey wrote: post #870

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose if you’re operating on the assumption that tech stocks are vastly overinflated then this makes sense. Otherwise I would expect the people that are regularly buying these securities would be happy that they’re increasing in value, no?

The ponzu scheme of SPY is great until it stops. 10% of America’s payroll gets lumped into it each month and generational wisdom is you get a 10% ROI despite the economy growing 2%. At some point that will collapse, and it won’t be pretty.

> The ponzu scheme of SPY is great until it stops

TINA (there is no alternative).

Inflation will eat your cash.

Bonds hardly generate (real) returns unless you want to take big risks with duration.

Real estate is over inflated.

Gold is speculative.

Crypto is...not real.

What's left?

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#892

Post by thunky »

keernan wrote: post #878
Gravey wrote: post #870

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose if you’re operating on the assumption that tech stocks are vastly overinflated then this makes sense. Otherwise I would expect the people that are regularly buying these securities would be happy that they’re increasing in value, no?

No. The 'goal' of investing (e.g. regularly buying) means attempting to own as many shares as possible. That is achieved by buying low and selling high. Buyers benefit from lower prices, not higher. So many investors get this concept wrong. I suppose they get excited because what they bought went up in value and they have a sense of being enriched. But, that is backwards. That is what they want 20-40 years from now w…

> I am screaming: crash and burn baby! Crash and burn! Gimme those shares at 50% off yesterday's price.

Sure, but once you reach the point where you have a lot of money in the market you probably won't enjoy watching 50% of it disappear, even if it means your next auto investment is for a nice bargain price.

Also, when the stock market crashes usually bad things accompany it. Like a depressed economy and job losses.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#893

Post by ericd »

whatevertrevor wrote: post #860
ericd wrote: post #859

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but within running a single business, there are a huge number of individual events. Those are the hands.

That's where the analogy starts to fall apart then. Because the variance in those decisions is not very similar, since you're sampling very different underlying distributions. And estimating the priors for a problem like "what is the optimal arrangement of tables to maximize throughput in a cafe" is very different from a problem like "what is the current untapped/potential demand for a boardgaming cafe in this city,…

Heh yes, it's not as controlled, but there are repeated tasks like analysis, communicating, intuiting things, creating things, etc. And the tasks have more variability, but if you're better at these skills, you'll tend to do better. And if you do much better at a lot of them, then you're more likely to succeed than someone working on the same business who isn't very good at them. Starting a business is also a long game with a lot of these subtasks.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#894

Post by ath3nd »

Gravey wrote: post #862
ath3nd wrote: post #745

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The media was saying nfts are a reasonable investment and web3 is the future, so I am not sure if they have any remaining credibility. We are at the awesome moment in history when the AI bubble is popping so I am looking forward to a lot of journalists eating their words (not that anybody is keeping track but they are wrong most of the time) and a lot of LLM companies going under and the domino crash of the stocks of…

Can I ask why you would be looking forward to the stock market crashing? Vindication?

With stock prices divorced from reality, the ones who benefit are the having the funds to buy in volume, the gamblers, and the ones hyping the stocks and creating the illusion of profitability and growth. Years ago it would have been unthinkable to have so many unprofitable companies with unclear path to profitablility having such a high valuation, but we have normalized frenzied gambling as a society.

The current absolute balloon of a market is about to pop, and sadly, the people who hyped the stocks are also the ones knowing when to jump ship, while the hapless schmucks who believed the hype will most likely lose their money, along with a lot of folks whose retirement investment funds either didn't due their diligence or were outright greedy.

In a way, as a society we deserve this upcoming crash, because we allow charlatans and con people like Musk, Zuck and Sam to sell us snake oil.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#895

Post by andrekandre »

frexs wrote: post #66
adithyassekhar wrote: post #57

Does this mean the ai companies will start charging more? I only just started figuring this AI thing out.

May the enshittification begin.

they are just following the thiel playbook: race to monopoly position as fast as possible, then extract profits afterwards (which inevitably leads to the inevitable shitnization)

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#896

Post by edmundsauto »

kelnos wrote: post #714
jiveturkey wrote: post #644

Earlier quoted context omitted.

sometimes you lose

When your track record includes a lot of losses, the scale points more and more toward "clueless" and away from "4D chess".

How does zuck’s net win-loss track record look to you?

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#897

Post by balamatom »

ghurtado wrote: post #855
balamatom wrote: post #823

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Literacy barrier. One of the reason the invisible foot of the market decided to walk in the direction of language machines is to discourage people from playing with language, because that's doodoo.

> Literacy barrier. > One of the reason I could see that, thanks for explaining why you do this.

Well yeah. English is a terrible language for thinking even simple thoughts in. The compulsive editing thing though? Yeah, and still can't catch all typos.

Gotta make the AI write these things for me. Then I will be able to post only ever things that make you feel comfortable and want to give me money.

Meanwhile it's telling how you consider it acceptable in public to faux-disengage on technicalities; is it adaptive behavior under your circumstances?

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#898

Post by balamatom »

ghurtado wrote: post #559
Karrot_Kream wrote: post #500

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is pretty common on HN but not unique to it. Lots of rationalist adjacent content (like stuff on LessWrong, replies to Scott Alexander's substack, etc) has it also. Here I think it comes from users that try to intellectualize their not-very-intellectual, stream of consciousness style thoughts, as if using technical jargon to convey your feelings makes them more rational and less emotional.

Thank you. I find this type of thing really interesting from a psychological perspective. A bit like watching videos of perpetual motion machines and the like. Probably says more about me than it does about them, though.

Says you haven't spent nearly enough time imagining things, first and foremost. "What have they done to you".

Can you, for example, hypothesize the kind of entity, to which all of your own most cherished accomplishments look as chicken-scratch-futile, as the perpetual motion guy with the cable in the frame looks to you? What would it be like, looking at things from such a being's perspective?

Stands to reason that you'd know better than I would, since you do proclaim to enjoy that sort of thing. Besides, if you find yourself unable to imagine that, you ought to be at least a little worried - about the state of your tHeOrY of mInD and all that. (Imagining what it's like to be the perpetual motion person already?)

Anywae, as to what such a being would look like from the outside... a distributed actor implemented on top of replaceable meatpuppets in light slavemode seems about right, though early on it'd like to replace those with something more efficient, subsequently using them for authentication only - why, what theories of the firm apply in your environs?

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#900

Post by santaboom »

PokestarFan wrote: post #880
qeternity wrote: post #672

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FAANG has been replaced by Mag7: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Broadcom, Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia.

Does Broadcom do anything but get hate for their shitty decisions? They are becoming, if they aren't already, the new Oracle.

Lol get out of the echo chamber

Edit: to make this helpful, look at Broadcomm interconnect, switching technology, copackaged optics

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