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US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

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Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#891
post #750

It's true that free trade is hugely beneficial to the US economy as a whole, particularly with the USD being the reserve currency. The flow of goods is balanced by a flow of US dollars to other countries, which are ultimately cycled back into the US financial system - enabling budget deficits and an abundance of capital to invest in high growth industries. The flip side of this is that it also drives inequality - the…

> The obvious solution is not to hurt the economy as a whole, but rather for the government to lower the cost of high-quality education, build out social systems, and invest into onshoring select strategic industries by raising taxes at the high end.

You're proposing to tax an international supply chain. To tax something it has to be in your jurisdiction to begin with, and then you have several problems.

The most obvious of these is, what happens when the stuff just isn't there anymore? Suppose the US isn't competitive with China for manufacturing certain goods, e.g. because the US has a higher cost of living as a result of a purposeful housing shortage and then has higher labor costs, or for any other reason. So manufacturing moves to China, not just to sell to the US but also to sell to the domestic market in China and to Europe and India and the rest of the world. No part of those other transactions is in the US, so the US can't tax them and use the money to help the people in the US who used to be doing that manufacturing and selling those products to the rest of the world. Whereas if you sustain domestic manufacturing through some means then it exists and can make products to sell to the rest of the world because the fixed costs of establishing a manufacturing base can be covered by the domestic market and then it only has to compete in the international market on the basis of variable costs.

Next consider the industries where the US still makes stuff. You could tax those things because they're still in the US. But that makes the US less competitive in the global market for investment capital, which is highly mobile. If higher US taxes cause returns to be lower in the US than they are in other countries then investors go invest in the other countries instead, and then the thing stops being in the US. So that doesn't really work. You can see this in the case of e.g. Europe, which has even worse problems with the loss of manufacturing than the US.

Which leaves the activity where it's the other half of the transaction happening in the US, i.e. China is manufacturing something but the customer is in the US. That you could tax without a huge risk of capital flight, because companies can rarely change the location of their customers, but that still leaves you with two problems.

First, either of the countries participating in the transaction could levy the tax. In the case of China, then they can levy a tax (or some tax-equivalent) to only such an extent that it consumes the surplus in the transaction attributable to the competitive advantage of their country. China can do this because they have a lower cost of living etc., which doesn't work for the US. But because they do that, the US can't tax that portion of the surplus, which was the gain from moving manufacturing to China.

And second, a tax on imports is called a tariff. Which the US can impose to tax that portion of the transaction surplus that isn't attributable to the foreign country's cost advantage, i.e. the preexisting transaction surplus where it costs $8 to make something someone is willing to pay $10 for regardless of where it was made. But tariffs are the thing you don't like.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#892

Here's a csv and google sheet of the data. Turns out they aren't tariffs countries charge us. They are trade imbalance percentages. Unreal: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xK0OQ5VGl8JHmDSIgbXh... https://gist.github.com/mcoliver/69fe48d03c12388e29cc0cd87eb...

Does this mean that software worldwide gets a boon since: 1. It’s not affected by these tariffs 2. It wasn’t used as a basis for the calculation

The Eu will take care of that by slapping taxes/tariffs or regulations, and the rest of the world will also do the same. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#893
post #750

It's true that free trade is hugely beneficial to the US economy as a whole, particularly with the USD being the reserve currency. The flow of goods is balanced by a flow of US dollars to other countries, which are ultimately cycled back into the US financial system - enabling budget deficits and an abundance of capital to invest in high growth industries. The flip side of this is that it also drives inequality - the…

> The obvious solution is not to hurt the economy as a whole, but rather for the government to lower the cost of high-quality education, build out social systems, and invest into onshoring select strategic industries by raising taxes at the high end.

Like... Scandinavia?

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#894
post #846
post #750

It's true that free trade is hugely beneficial to the US economy as a whole, particularly with the USD being the reserve currency. The flow of goods is balanced by a flow of US dollars to other countries, which are ultimately cycled back into the US financial system - enabling budget deficits and an abundance of capital to invest in high growth industries. The flip side of this is that it also drives inequality - the…

> for the government to lower the cost of high-quality education Devils advocate point, and one nobody wants to talk about: what if everyone can't be a high-skill employee? Imagine if the highest earning jobs required immense physical endurance and strength. Nobody would argue that everyone can do that. It would be obvious that only a subset of people are capable of doing those jobs. For some reason, with intellectua…

This is the kind of side debates you get by framing it as “low-skill” versus “high-skill”. Whether the “~20% of the ability” curve should help the poors from their apparent attraction to demagogues.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#895
post #625

Everyone is quick to deride this move as stupid. I don’t disagree that there are downsides to the approach, but there is a set of very real national problems that this might address. For instance, globalization and offshoring of production has made goods cheaper for consumers, but what about the former domestic producers who could not compete, and do not have the skills or capital to find a new job which pays as well…

> very real national problems that this might address.

This is a dubious claim to begin with. If you believe that 'trade deficits are bad,' can you explain why? Post Covid, the US economy has emerged in significantly better shape than nearly every other country in the world, so I'm failing to see how these deficits are meaningful.

> Globalization has played a big role in creating the massive income inequality in our country

What is your source for this belief, especially when comparing globalization with other factors that cause inequality? From my understanding, the biggest recent contributors to a higher cost of living in the US are housing, health, and education. Health and education purely services-oriented, and housing is one-third a labor cost.

> our society as such is biased heavily toward importing goods rather than exporting goods

I think that's great. America exports services. We innovate to create new technology, are a leader in designing the things and systems that people want (think of our tech industry), and we delegate the work of manufacturing to others. That seems fine to me, and a function of having (relatively) open, free trade.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#896
post #750

It's true that free trade is hugely beneficial to the US economy as a whole, particularly with the USD being the reserve currency. The flow of goods is balanced by a flow of US dollars to other countries, which are ultimately cycled back into the US financial system - enabling budget deficits and an abundance of capital to invest in high growth industries. The flip side of this is that it also drives inequality - the…

> The obvious solution is not to hurt the economy as a whole, but rather for the government to lower the cost of high-quality education, build out social systems, and invest into onshoring select strategic industries by raising taxes at the high end. Like... Scandinavia?

As an example, yes.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#897
post #750

It's true that free trade is hugely beneficial to the US economy as a whole, particularly with the USD being the reserve currency. The flow of goods is balanced by a flow of US dollars to other countries, which are ultimately cycled back into the US financial system - enabling budget deficits and an abundance of capital to invest in high growth industries. The flip side of this is that it also drives inequality - the…

> the upside of this system is felt by the entrepreneurs, investors and high-skill employees in tech and finance, while the downside is concentrated with low-skill workers whose jobs are offshored to lower wage countries. This is true only if we impose barriers to geographic mobility, which we do via artificial scarcity of housing in our major cities. If we produced housing like we did cars, all the "low-skill" peopl…

> If we produced housing like we did cars, all the "low-skill" people would be able to move to the city and find a job in the many other services that require human labor.

Why would they want to do that? Their priorities are myriad, but raising a family, having a degree of autonomy and space to themselves, and remaining a part of their community are all generally on the list.

What’s generally not on the list is living in a tiny rabbit hutch, owning nothing, working a dead-end service job, trying to raise a family in a city (or just not trying at all), and paying a higher price for the privilege.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#898
post #846
post #750

It's true that free trade is hugely beneficial to the US economy as a whole, particularly with the USD being the reserve currency. The flow of goods is balanced by a flow of US dollars to other countries, which are ultimately cycled back into the US financial system - enabling budget deficits and an abundance of capital to invest in high growth industries. The flip side of this is that it also drives inequality - the…

> for the government to lower the cost of high-quality education Devils advocate point, and one nobody wants to talk about: what if everyone can't be a high-skill employee? Imagine if the highest earning jobs required immense physical endurance and strength. Nobody would argue that everyone can do that. It would be obvious that only a subset of people are capable of doing those jobs. For some reason, with intellectua…

> Devils advocate point, and one nobody wants to talk about: what if everyone can't be a high-skill employee?

You still need education to become a nurse, caregiver, welder or kindergarten teacher. And the right subsidies (free education) allows people to make the switch.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#899

Aside from everything else one thing what strikes me as particularly insane is how it’s not even defensible as a protective measure. My favorite everyday olive oil comes from Tunisia. They now have a 38% tariff on them. There are no out of work olive farmers in the US. The orange man wanted tariffs, the orange man is going to get tariffs. Now we have to hope the American people aren’t so dumb as to still be convinced…

US does produce olive oil, particularly in states like California, Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Florida, Oregon, and Hawaii. So you do have a few options: 1. Support local producers. There are high-quality olive oils made right here in the US that might surprise you. 2. Work with Tunisia manufacturers to move their production to the US 3. If you don't want to support local producers, pay extra and enjoy your Tunisia oliv…

Difficult to move the production of olive oil.

I don't know how much you know about olive oil, but it comes from olives, which grow on olive trees. Olive trees are famously long-lived and, together with the very specific types of land that they grow on, they represent extremely persistent and valuable investments for the people who produce olive oil.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#900
post #750

It's true that free trade is hugely beneficial to the US economy as a whole, particularly with the USD being the reserve currency. The flow of goods is balanced by a flow of US dollars to other countries, which are ultimately cycled back into the US financial system - enabling budget deficits and an abundance of capital to invest in high growth industries. The flip side of this is that it also drives inequality - the…

> It's true that free trade is hugely beneficial to the US economy as a whole, particularly with the USD being the reserve currency. It's true that free trade is hugely beneficial to large cap U.S. companies and their shareholders. If you are U.S. worker without a lot of equity in the market all you notice is that your job gets outsourced.

This “free money” also inflates housing prices. It’s one application of “trickle down economics” that works; except it’s housing prices.

Even for highly paid Silicon Valley engineers what does it matter if much of that money goes right back to landlords?

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