Earlier quoted context omitted.
Slightly tangential, but I want an LLM which can debug windows.
Debug And locally fix security holes.
Or sell the found exploit to the friendly nation state actor to pay for its compute behind your back
Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
891–900 of 1001 posts
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#892Earlier quoted context omitted.
The crash is absolutely rational; the cascading effect highlights the missing moat for companies like OpenAI. Without a moat, no investor will provide these companies with the billions that fueled most of the demand. This demand was essential for NVIDIA to squeeze such companies with incredible profit margins. NVIDIA was overvalued before, and this correction is entirely justified. The larger impact of DeepSeek is mo…
It has been clear for a while that one of two things is true. 1) AI stuff isn't really worth trillions, in which case Nvidia is overvalued. 2) AI stuff is really worth trillions, in which case there will be no moat, because you can cross any moat for that amount of money, e.g. you could recreate CUDA from scratch for far less than a trillion dollars and in fact Nvidia didn't spend anywhere near that much to create it…
Yes this is exactly correct! Well said
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#893Earlier quoted context omitted.
It has been clear for a while that one of two things is true. 1) AI stuff isn't really worth trillions, in which case Nvidia is overvalued. 2) AI stuff is really worth trillions, in which case there will be no moat, because you can cross any moat for that amount of money, e.g. you could recreate CUDA from scratch for far less than a trillion dollars and in fact Nvidia didn't spend anywhere near that much to create it…
Related to your #2. I mentioned this elsewhere yesterday, but NVDA's margins (55% last quarter!) are a gift and a curse. They look great for the stock in the short term, but they also encourage its customers to aggressively go after them. Second, their best customers are huge tech companies who have the capital and expertise (or can buy it) to go after NVDA. DeepSeek just laid out a path to put NVDAs margins under pr…
Their data center margins are even dumber. 80-90% margins on a product just are not sustainable. No chance they keep this monopoly long term.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#894Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#895Not long ago Sam Altman was talking about how they were loosing money even on the paid version of chatgpt. Those incoming prices hikes going to be difficult to sell now.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#896Here’s a take I haven’t seen yet: If training and inference just got 40x more efficient, but OpenAI and co. still have the same compute resources, once they’ve baked in all the DeepSeek improvements, we’re about to find out very quickly whether 40x the compute delivers 40x the performance / output quality, or if output quality has ceased to be compute-bound.
In the long run (which in the AI world is probably ~1 year) this is very good for Nvidia, very good for the hyperscalers, and very good for anyone building AI applications. The only thing it's not good for is the idea that OpenAI and/or Anthropic will eventually become profitable companies with market caps that exceed Apple's by orders of magnitude. Oh no, anyway.
Yes! I have had the exact same mental model. The biggest losers in this news are the groups building frontier models. They are the ones with huge valuations but if the optimizations becomes even close to true, its a massive threat to their business model. My feet are on the ground but I do still believe that the world does not comprehend how much compute it can use...as compute gets cheaper we will use more of it. Ignoring equity pricing, this benefits all other parties.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#897Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is partially why Apple is the one that stands to gain more, and it showed. Their "small models, on device" approach can only be perfected with something like DeepSeek, and they're not exposed to NVIDIA pricing, nor have to prove investors that their approach is still valid.
Until AGI removes the need for iOS. Apple is not immune to AI disruption. The Rabbit R1 was a scam but the concept was the right approach. It was just 5 years too early. You don’t need an iPhone with AGI. You just need a 5G device with a screen, connected to an AGI.
I keep seeing this argument, but I don't buy it at all. I want a phone with an AGI, not a phone that is only AGI. Often it's just easier to press a button rather than talk to an AI, regardless how smart it is. I have no interest in natural language being the only interface to my device, that sounds awful. In public, I want to preserve my privacy. I do not want to have everyone listening in on what I'm doing.
If we can create an AGI that can literally read my mind, okay, maybe that's a better interface than the current one, but we are far away from that scenario.
Until then, I'm convinced users will prefer a phone with AI functionalities rather than the reverse. It's easier for a phone company to create such a phone than it is for an AI company.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#898NVIDIA sells shovels to the gold rush. One miner (Liang Wenfeng), who has previously purchased at least 10,000 A100 shovels... has a "side project" where they figured out how to dig really well with a shovel and shared their secrets. The gold rush, wether real or a bubble is still there! NVIDA will still sell every shovel they can manufacture, as soon as it is available in inventory. Fortune 100 companies will still…
Can anyone comment on why Wenfeng shared his secret sauce? Other than publicity, there only seems to be downsides for him, as now everyone else with larger compute will just copy and improve?
Well, American investors seem to be shaking in their boots and publicizing this attracts AI investments in China because it shows China can out/compete with the US in spite of the restrictions.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#89990% of the comments in this thread make it clear that knowing about technology does not in any way qualify someone to think correctly about markets and equity valuations.
Because your comment was posted 9 hours ago, I have no idea what view you think is wrong. Could you explain what the incorrect view is and — ideally — what’s wrong with it?
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#900I will never forget HN's not-made-in-the-US bias https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42514633
Which replies in particular? I read that thread and didn't see any bias?