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Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

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Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#891

Post by hetoh »

ahmeneeroe-v2 wrote: post #839
rchaud wrote: post #796

The US appears to be fully in the grips of centralized economic autarky. A tiny coterie of industrialists who have the President's ear decide how to allocate a gigantic amount of capital for their pet projects while the state raises tariffs and implements bans to protect them from competition. Didn't go well for South America in the 60s and 70s but perhaps, as economists are prone to saying, "this time will be differ…

Private capital. That detail seems to derail your whole comment.

Bookmark this - This private capital will eventually backed by Govt guarantees on the loan banks gives. Which will socialize the loss and privatize profit...

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#892

Post by knowaveragejoe »

stronglikedan wrote: post #815
rchaud wrote: post #796

The US appears to be fully in the grips of centralized economic autarky. A tiny coterie of industrialists who have the President's ear decide how to allocate a gigantic amount of capital for their pet projects while the state raises tariffs and implements bans to protect them from competition. Didn't go well for South America in the 60s and 70s but perhaps, as economists are prone to saying, "this time will be differ…

It will be different (and as another commentor pointed out, it probably always has been), because the adults are back it charge, thankfully.

Tariffs, mass deportations, rescinding anything the predecessor did because of your personal egotism. None of these are the behavior of adults, and you know better.

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#893

Post by LeftHandPath »

rhubarbtree wrote: post #579
famouswaffles wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"There are maybe a few hundred people in the world who viscerally understand what's coming. Most are at DeepMind / OpenAI / Anthropic / X but some are on the outside. You have to be able to forecast the aggregate effect of rapid algorithmic improvement, aggressive investment in building RL environments for iterative self-improvement, and many tens of billions already committed to building data centers. Either we're a…

The problem is, they are hugely incentivised to hype to raise funding. It’s not whether they are “wrong”, it’s whether they are being realistic. The argument presented in the quote there is: “everyone in AI foundation companies are putting money into AI, therefore we must be near AGI.” The best evaluation of progress is to use the tools we have. It doesn’t look like we are close to AGI. It looks like amazing NLP with…

Absolutely. Look at how Sam Altman speaks.

If you've taken a couple of lectures about AI, you've probably been taught not to anthropomorphize your own algorithms, especially given how the masses think of AI (in terms of Skynet, Cortana, "Her", Ex Machina, etc). It encourages people to mistake the capabilities of the models and ascribe to them all of the traits of AI they've seen in TV and movies.

Sam has ignored that advice, and exploited the hype that can be generated by doing so. He even tried to mimic the product in "Her", down to the voice [0]. The old board said his "outright lying" made it impossible to trust him [1]. That behavior raises eyebrows, even if he's got a legitimate product.

[0]: https://www.wired.com/story/openai-gpt-4o-chatgpt-artificial...

[1]: https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/28/24166713/openai-helen-ton...

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#894

Post by jnurmine »

tempusalaria wrote: post #393
SecretDreams wrote: post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Serious question - why Texas???

Texas is a world leader in renewable energy. Easy permitting, lots of space, lots of existing grid infrastructure from the o&g industry.

What about hurricanes? Extreme weather events which spew a lot of water, wind and debris around might potentially do a lot of damage to a data center.

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#895

Post by whiplash451 »

DebtDeflation wrote: post #710
famouswaffles wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"There are maybe a few hundred people in the world who viscerally understand what's coming. Most are at DeepMind / OpenAI / Anthropic / X but some are on the outside. You have to be able to forecast the aggregate effect of rapid algorithmic improvement, aggressive investment in building RL environments for iterative self-improvement, and many tens of billions already committed to building data centers. Either we're a…

>Maybe they really are all wrong All? Quite a few of the best minds in the field, like Yann LeCun for example, have been adamant that 1) autoregressive LLMs are NOT the path to AGI and 2) that AGI is very likely NOT just a couple of years away.

Who says they will stick to autoregressive LLMs?

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#896

Post by sgt101 »

Davidzheng wrote: post #373
TheAceOfHearts wrote: post #300

I'm confused and a bit disturbed; honestly having a very difficult time internalizing and processing this information. This announcement is making me wonder if I'm poorly calibrated on the current progress of AI development and the potential path forward. Is the key idea here that current AI development has figured out enough to brute force a path towards AGI? Or I guess the alternative is that they expect to figure…

Let me avoid the use of the word AGI here because the term is a little too loaded for me these days. 1) reasoning capabilities in latest models are rapidly approaching superhuman levels and continue to scale with compute. 2) intelligence at a certain level is easier to achieve algorithmically when the hardware improves. There's also a larger path to intelligence and often simpler mechanisms 3) most current generation…

What is the evidence for 1) ? I thought that the latest models were getting "somewhere" with fairly trivial reasoning tests like ARC-1

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#898

Post by pillefitz »

kristianp wrote: post #423
burnte wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was literally my question. Is this basically just for more datacenters, NVidia chips, and electricity with a sprinkling of engineers to run it all? If so, then that $500bn should NOT be invested in today's tech, but instead in making more powerful and power efficient chips, IMO.

Nvidia and TSMC are already working on more powerful and efficient chips, but the physical limits to scaling mean lots more power is going to be used in each new generation of chips. They might improve by offering specific features such as FP4, but Moore's law is still dead.

And we are, running on a 20W brain.

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#899

Post by azemetre »

biimugan wrote: post #867
Valakas_ wrote: post #856

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's fascinating how most people still don't get it. ASI is basically a god. This is the ultimate solution (or problem). It will push us to the singularity, and create an utopia or drive humanity to extinction. Imagine someone who is so smart that would win every single nobel prize available, and make multiple discoveries in a matter of a year. And now multiply this person's intelligence by 100 (most likely more, but…

This type of comment is another thing I don't quite understand -- as if no one but AI proponents have heard of the Singularity. "There's no point in investing in anything else" is a very presumptive, fact-free idea. It's just begging the question. Many promising false starts have occurred in this area. Predictions from technologists such as Kurzweil have been wrong more than they've been right.

If you investigate the language of these individuals and where these ideas come from, it's basically taking ideas from Christianity while giving it a techno. Things like requiring data to live "forever" is not that different than ideas of the afterlife.

Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers

#900

Post by ozim »

ajmurmann wrote: post #749
ozim wrote: post #646

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money doesn't fix stuff. You need good will people and good will people don't need that much money.

More importantly, money, at global scale, doesn't solve scarcity issues. If there are 100 apples and 120 people making sure everyone has a lot of money doesn't magically create 20 more apples. It just raises the price of apples. Building an apple orchard creates apples. Stargate is people betting that they are building a phenomenal apple orchard. I'm not sure they will and an worried the apple orchard will poison us…

On global scale if you have 100 people and 150 apples but apples are on the opposite side of the globe it is not like you can sustainably get those apples delivered all the time.

Getting 150 apples once is better than nothing but still doesn’t fix the problem.

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