Live data from Hacker News

Miscellanea: The War in Iran

acoup.blog

881–890 of 1001 posts

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#881

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These 20% will still make you dependent on foreign country. For example Germany was dependent on Russian gas (before year 2022), which they later swapped for dependency on US LNG. In addition, Germany is dependent on China for PV panels.

> Germany was dependent on Russian gas (before year 2022), which they later swapped for dependency on US LNG. In addition, Germany is dependent on China for PV panels There is merit to putting one's energy policy on autopilot by doing the opposite of whatever Berlin is up to.

> doing the opposite of whatever Berlin is up to

So you're suggesting to cut solar incentives and never discuss SMRs?

I think you might be predicting future performance from past returns here.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#882

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Or in 2022-2023 EU leaders said that Russian soldiers are fighting with shovels and stealing microwaves and washing machines to extract microchips from them. And this WAS true. At one point, Ukraine broke through Russian lines and was pushing Russia back as fast as they could get logistics organized. In response, Russia mobilized about 300000 people and forced them to fight or die. Usually both. Then started offeri…

Russia _recruited_, not mobilized as usually in popular conception that would equate with conscripted. Conscription is enforced with martial law only in ukranian territories, by both the official ukrianian government, and by the russia's occuption forces in donbas.

> Russia _recruited_, not mobilized as usually in popular conception that would equate with conscripted.

No. Russia _mobilized_ 300000 people. As in "sent mobilization notices and then grabbed whoever came". It almost resulted in uprisings, so it was quickly abandoned in favor of using prison inmates and later offering $50000 signup bonuses.

It was then memory-holed by the Russian propaganda as if it had never happened.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#884
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you talking about? The strait was open, and tankers were not paying tolls as they do now. They held the threat of closing it, as a deterrent of an attack, and once attacked, they did just that. You either live in a parallel universe, or are just spewing here propaganda.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/19/politics/houthi-red-sea-a... Lol there were routine attcaks every time things weren't going their way. Whos been in a parallel universe? And never said closed. I said ransom.

You know the Red Sea is a different body of water than the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz? Iran does not control the Red Sea directly, but most likely by funding the Houthis.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#885

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you have to go to absolutes? If 90% of countries can be 80+% self sufficient, that’s still an amazing thing

These 20% will still make you dependent on foreign country. For example Germany was dependent on Russian gas (before year 2022), which they later swapped for dependency on US LNG. In addition, Germany is dependent on China for PV panels.

but much less dependent. Its way easier to stockpile a big buffer supply of LNG if its only 20% of your supply, for example. Its way easier to trim some 20% demand and still keep the country largely running, for example.

"much less dependent" is still a huge win. Sure 100% independent is better. Isnt this obvious? i dont understand the point.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#886
post #768

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran claims 1T USD damages as a result of US leaving JCPOA alone - in 2021. Now add in 5 more years, wars, sanctions before JCPOA was signed, direct expenditures on enrichment... https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/21/us-sanctions-inflic...

That's their claim for how much less economic activity Iran (not just the government) had in total due to sanctions, not how much the government "spent on the nuclear weapons program" that could have instead been spent on desalination plants.

But without a nuclear weapons program, the entire sanctions regime wouldn't have started (yea, I know today half of those are anti-terrorist sanctions, but that's not how it started, it was morphed later on). It should be considered as part of the losses.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#887

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Per your sources it looks like they are subsidising industry use of electricity with household usage: Household electricity prices are 157% of average in SA, and 200% of industry prices. That's not a case of renewables backfiring, it's a case of strange policy resulting in weird pricing.

> they are subsidising industry use of electricity with household usage Germany had to do the same thing when their power costs threatened de-industrialisation. The base cost of electricity in Uruguay is higher than its neighbors’ in an environmentally-wonderful but economically-problematic way.

Germany made the worst possible mistake. They decided to decommission all their nuclear power in one year "for the environment"

Then they started importing all their energy from neighbouring countries including:

Nuclear power from France

Coal (!) power from Poland

Hydro from Sweden

Etc,etc.

The anti nuclear crowd in Germany fucked the environment to sate their delusional beliefs.

Electricity prices in Sweden tripled because of that and still haven't returned to normal.

Worst decision in the history of the German nation! (This statement is true, but only on a technicality: the current nation of Germany is young!)

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#888

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(1) Why do you think this is worse for the Chinese government than the US? Also, this view of the strategic goals of the war seems fundamentally incompatible with both how it began and the ongoing US government narratives about it. (2) I think we all (the author included) agree with you that it's easier to break things than to build them--both hardware and relationships--so it's obvious that maintaining trade through…

(1) China is more sensitive to shipping and oil shipments (and derivatives) than the US. It hurts both but China much more. The US is hurt in so far as high gas price are bad for elections, a small price to pay for strategic advantage. (2) Iran has a temporary but unsustainable interest in constricting traffic, and it's not the only country who could impose a filter there. The mere credible threat of a strike on ship…

[dead]

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#889

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(1) Why do you think this is worse for the Chinese government than the US? Also, this view of the strategic goals of the war seems fundamentally incompatible with both how it began and the ongoing US government narratives about it. (2) I think we all (the author included) agree with you that it's easier to break things than to build them--both hardware and relationships--so it's obvious that maintaining trade through…

(1) China is more sensitive to shipping and oil shipments (and derivatives) than the US. It hurts both but China much more. The US is hurt in so far as high gas price are bad for elections, a small price to pay for strategic advantage. (2) Iran has a temporary but unsustainable interest in constricting traffic, and it's not the only country who could impose a filter there. The mere credible threat of a strike on ship…

(1) Sure, I'm not arguing that the Chinese economy is less vulnerable to a SOH closure than the US. I do think the US government is much more vulnerable to economic pressure than the Chinese government is (especially in an election year that even before the war was shaping up poorly for the ruling party), and any calculus the government makes needs to include this. If this was the goal of the war, I think we would also see significantly different targeting and messaging than we do now. If there was a ceasefire tomorrow, it's unclear that China would be the outsize loser here.

(2) Again, sure, but Iran can clearly sustain it longer. They've read their Clausewitz and properly understand this as a contest of political will, which they have much deeper reserves of than capital or munitions. Anyone with any power in the Iranian regime knows they have no offramp.

Absolutely agree that Trump cares strongly for his legacy, maybe more than anything except for his self-image, but the most important part of that legacy is being recognized as both popular and a winner--I would argue that these are far more important to him personally than US power and influence on the world stage (shutting down USAID, for example, was a massive blow to US soft power, and the NATO infighting that he initiated is still probably a net negative for US hard power, even if it has had a positive impact on European defense spending and self-sufficiency). He also clearly wants to see that legacy established in his lifetime (hence the obsession with having things named after him). It's hard to imagine this being a particularly effective way to increase long-term US power and influence relative to China, particularly in a way that will generate positive sentiment within the US--especially among the majority voters who favored his populist-isolationist political platform.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#890
post #781

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with the OP, American sources are untrustworthy on this matter. Do you read Arabic?

I'm not disputing that American sources are untrustworthy. I'm not disputing that the situation is bad. I don't read Arabic, but I'd be happy to look at a citation with assistance: if 50% of babies in Baghdad are dying, someone would be reporting on it.

Second link:

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2009_2014/documents/...

Maybe you didn’t read it.

Post reply on HN