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Tesla ending Models S and X production

cnbc.com

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Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#881

Post by pibaker »

IncreasePosts wrote: post #821
root_axis wrote: post #795

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do you have any sources for that claim? I can attest that current iteration of FSD is very, very good, and very likely is a safer driver than I am. That's a damning statement about your driving skills, and probably not true or you'd have had your license revoked by now. I've had FSD for five years, and even today it regularly makes dangerous mistakes. For example, left turns and roundabouts are the equivalent of Ru…

If your Tesla is 5 years old aren't you getting a degraded FSD model due to weak hardware?

"The computer is not beefy enough" is not an acceptable excuse for blowing a red. If your model cannot comply with the most basic law of traffic, it should not be sold to consumers as "full self driving."

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#882

Post by sidcool »

flakeoil wrote: post #861
sidcool wrote: post #684

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How so?

They say Tesla cars are not better than any other EV nowadays. They say the Tesla stock is overvalued. They say the Tesla robot will likely not be a super hit in terms of sales. I don't see it as hate. It's quite pragmatic views.

Tesla Model Y is not the best selling car in the world?

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#883

Post by rkagerer »

memish wrote: post #839
sgjohnson wrote: post #485

Tesla will become a case study on how to completely waste the first-mover advantage. For many people, the very term EV itself is still ubiquitous to Tesla. And somehow Tesla is still worth more than every other non-Chinese automaker combined. $1.5T. GM? $80B. Stellantis? $40B. Toyota? $280B. Mercedes-Benz? $60B. BMW? $55B. Volkswagen Group? Also $55B. I’m sure I’ve missed plenty of others, but I could miss some 18 $5…

1. Tesla has $40B in cash and is profitable. To say it's worth $5B is beyond absurd. 2. The market determines what is a fair value, not rando haters on the internet. Even professional Wall Street consensus is that it's fair value at approximately $1.2T market cap.

$40B in cash/equivalents, minus some $13-20B in debt (depending what source you pick).

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#884

Post by groundzeros2015 »

WorldMaker wrote: post #849
groundzeros2015 wrote: post #747

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if they have planned product lines we don’t know about.

Then the smarter PR move would be to tease those before announcing massive cuts?

that's a reasonable strategy. Maybe they want to clear some inventory first?

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#885

Post by gkfasdfasdf »

gwbas1c wrote: post #703
sgjohnson wrote: post #485

Tesla will become a case study on how to completely waste the first-mover advantage. For many people, the very term EV itself is still ubiquitous to Tesla. And somehow Tesla is still worth more than every other non-Chinese automaker combined. $1.5T. GM? $80B. Stellantis? $40B. Toyota? $280B. Mercedes-Benz? $60B. BMW? $55B. Volkswagen Group? Also $55B. I’m sure I’ve missed plenty of others, but I could miss some 18 $5…

> And to add insult to injury, even GM Super Cruise is widely renowned as better and safer than Tesla’s current “FSD”. My Huyndai's Autopilot equivalent (I don't even know what they call it) is better than the enhanced Autopilot in the Model 3 that I traded in. It actually changes lanes when I put on the blinker, instead of only changing lanes 70% of the time, and the other time just sitting with the blinker on and a…

Tesla FSD will change lanes when you use the blinker. It will also accelerate and remain engaged if you press the pedal, e.g. if you want to coax it forward at an intersection.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#886

Post by FL33TW00D »

jkrejcha wrote: post #789
FL33TW00D wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like the comparison, but with aviation on a fundamental level we made it simpler (removing actuation), not added more (senses we dont need)

Others in this subthread discussed the comparison of the complexity of different ways of achieving flight itself, but I think there is an interesting discussion in that... well... we do add senses we don't technically need to achieve stable flight (but are very useful for safe flight and have reduced the incidence of aviation incidents and accidents dramatically). Whether it be altimeters based on radio[1] or air pre…

How many of these are due to going outside the normal envelope of what birds do?

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#887

Post by dstroot »

breve wrote: post #561
Traster wrote: post #517

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're totally wrong on this. Tesla didn't waste the first mover advantage. They benefitted from it whilst it existed, but Electric vehicles turned into a commodity, which was entirely expected and there's no moat. You've explained yourself why it would be untenable for Musk to pursue becoming the biggest car manufacturer in the world - if he succeeded in that goal... he would have succeded in shrinking the v…

Why is making humanoid robots a moat? Other companies have been making robots for longer, humanoid and otherwise, and doing it better. Has Optimus signed up for any sports yet: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/02/china/china-humanoid-robo... Is Optimus close to what Boston Dynamics is doing with Atlas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIhzUnvi7Fw

Anyone who owns a tesla vehicle with "full self driving" is probably chuckling to themselves about Tesla ever making useful general purpose robots any time soon. Disclaimer, I own two tesla's with FSD and it's far from "full" or "self". I am very sceptical of robotaxis unless they have the appropriate sensors & SW (e.g. Waymo) which Elon has not done.

Finally, I know lots of people who own cars, but none who own robots. Many friends will not have Alexa in their homes due to privacy concerns. How many people will trust Elon to have a robot in their homes and assume he's being benign and safe with your personal data?

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#888

Post by 2OEH8eoCRo0 »

bob1029 wrote: post #353

I think Tesla would make way more sense if they got out of the car part of the business. Serving the consumer market directly is very expensive. Their electronics, batteries, motors, etc., are world class. Packaging this up into something a partner can use to build actual cars could have less risk. An electric motor or battery can propel many kinds of automobile. They tend to keep their value better when stored in th…

They don't make their own battery cells they are an integrator of third party cells.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#889

Post by enragedcacti »

digiown wrote: post #866
enragedcacti wrote: post #856

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lemonade doesn't support your claim that FSD is a safer driver than you are. It just says that, most charitably, they believe FSD and a human operator are safer than just a human operator (The co-founder said exactly this to Reuters [0]). Further, the program has only been around for a week and their marketing copy specifically cites "Tesla's data" as the source for the 50% reduction rather than any sort of independe…

They are putting their money behind their words, unless there is some backroom deal we don't know about. If a human operator + FSD is twice safer than human operator alone, then FSD is still a large safety improvement. Considering how human operators behave with these systems, I'd also wager having the human operator (many don't even look at the road!) makes only a small difference.

> They are putting their money behind their words, unless there is some backroom deal we don't know about.

Their product is dynamically priced and individualized, and there is no guarantee of what the base rate will be. I don't see any reason they can't keep offering the 50% discount and then adjust the base rates to reverse engineer a sustainable price regardless of FSDs real safety.

> Considering how human operators behave with these systems, I'd also wager having the human operator (many don't even look at the road!) makes only a small difference.

Lemonade will likely be getting driver monitoring telemetry and calculating rates accordingly, but in either case I'm convinced that we are still on the left hand side of the Valley of Degraded Supervision [0]. Operators may not pay full attention at all times but they likely still have pretty good heuristics for what situations are difficult for FSD and adjust their monitoring behavior accordingly.

Tesla could of course release detailed crash and disengagement data to prove FSD safety. That they do not is itself a form of evidence, and in lieu of that we have to rely on crowdsourced data which says FSD 14.x still has a very long way to go to be safer than the average driver [1].

[0] https://www.eetimes.com/disengagements-wrong-metric-for-av-t...

[1] https://teslafsdtracker.com/Main

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#890

Post by saalweachter »

WarmWash wrote: post #773
Cthulhu_ wrote: post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Without some big jumps in battery tech, EVs are going to be difficult to sell without subsidies. The actual sales figures show otherwise, but sure, there's still a lot of uncertainty with regards to batteries / range, I can imagine even moreso in the US. Traveled to Austria a while ago in an EV (~1000 kilometers), we had to stop 3x on the way, but the battery was good for another 2.5 hours of driving after a coffee…

The whole battery thing is a massive misunderstanding of how EVs work vs gas vehicles. For an EV with a range of 250 miles (400km) you can drive 400mi (645km) with one (1) thirty minute stop. That's pretty much, drive 3 hours, stop for 30 minute lunch, drive 3 hours. The confusion stems from the fact that gas cars don't fill up themselves before you depart, and they don't fill up themselves when you arrive. There are…

Isn't it more like 4 hours?

The EPA tests at 55MPH, and driving faster than that will yield a lower range, so each 200 mile leg should take closer to 4 hours.

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