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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#881

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no “reason” or justification. The decision to invade has already been made, all these explanations exist for the sole purpose of making it easier to do nothing about it when the invasion happens. Chinese people feel they way they are taught to feel. China's fundamental argument distilled to its most pure form is "we are strong enough to do this, what are you going to do about it?" A world where the strong do…

> A world where the strong do whatever they want because no one can do anything about it is not a world anyone should want to live in. You're fooling yourself if you don't think we live in, and have always lived in, this world. Citizens like me, living in a relatively just society, can tell ourselves the world is not like this because of our daily lives, but the reality is if some group of people even stronger doesn'…

So we're back to promoting slavery then? Because that is a thing that happens if we just allow the strong to do whatever they want. It seems to me that this kind of cynical "realistic" pessimism is part of what fuels totalitarianism. Russia has succeeded in falling back into this because their citizens believes that might makes right.

But might isn't one thing. Might arises from complex underlying relationships between people and it arises from what people believe in. Might makes right yes. But what people believe is right also makes might. When people stop believing that it's impossible to stand up to totalitarianism - that's when it wins.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#882

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no “reason” or justification. The decision to invade has already been made, all these explanations exist for the sole purpose of making it easier to do nothing about it when the invasion happens. Chinese people feel they way they are taught to feel. China's fundamental argument distilled to its most pure form is "we are strong enough to do this, what are you going to do about it?" A world where the strong do…

> A world where the strong do whatever they want because no one can do anything about it is not a world anyone should want to live in. You're fooling yourself if you don't think we live in, and have always lived in, this world. Citizens like me, living in a relatively just society, can tell ourselves the world is not like this because of our daily lives, but the reality is if some group of people even stronger doesn'…

> You're fooling yourself if you don't think we live in, and have always lived in, this world.

While I agree it is different now because everything is in the spotlight and you can’t get away with things like you used to. So not sure I would go as far as “always will be”.

Also not sure there is a need to say how amazed one is about one other’s opinion, since it belittles it.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#883

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Democracy isn't when you have multiple parties. It's when you elect people to govern. Many americans think that America has a uniparty, despite all appearances.

I feel like you have it the wrong way around. There are a lot of political setups where you "elect someone" that are absolutely not democracies. I can be an authoritarian supreme leader who allows citizens to elect who will run their province (from my choice of candidates of course!) and I really don't think it's reasonable to claim that this situation is a "democracy". It's autocracy with democratic characteristics.…

> I can be an authoritarian supreme leader who allows citizens to elect who will run their province (from my choice of candidates of course!)

by that definition, the united states wouldn't even be called a democracy

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#884
post #850

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear proliferation is the only logical response to this administration. Tripling the number of nuclear armed countries will greatly increase the odds of a hot conflict breaking out which risks the safety of everyone in the world. Of course this fairly straightforward calculus seems beyond what trump/musk are capable of and they are actively working to make Americans safer and less prosperous is countless ways.

They might not care. Musk (et al) seem to be addicted to risk taking.

The drugs probably help.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#885

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Threatening to annex Greenland ( Denmark) Threatening to annex Canada and start a trade war to try to compulse them. Invoking Canadian nationalism instead. Note: he arranged the previous "trade deal" he claims to hate now. Starting a trade war with Mexico, this is actually a source of Fentanyl and I can understand. Camerading with dictators ( Russia), voting the same as them in the UN. Claiming Russia isn't the aggre…

> US is getting more and more hate from literally everywhere in a very short time because of that. A lot is changing very quick and it won't take 4 years until Trump is gone. > The entire world is pretty sure that Trump will take the US in a dictatorship and is going to loosen ties. Do you have a source for this or is it just some vibey rant? That last part seems ridiculous.

He has "joked" numerous times about his third term. It looks like he's preparing the ground for a Putin-style forever presidency.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#886

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China doesn't want Taiwan for TSMC. They want Taiwan because they see them as a rebellious province. In their mind, the Chinese civil war never ended and that island is the last bastion of the Kuomintang. One way I've heard it described in a way that is easier for Americans to understand is; Imagine at the end of the American Civil War, a confederate army retreated to an island like Cuba or Hawaii, they took it over…

It's worse than a rebellious province. It's a more successful rebellious province. For China, they hold up all of these technical accomplishments and quality of life improvements they have made under their one party system. But now over here is Taiwan that never bought in and is doing even better! It undercuts all of their messaging. If the communist party could wave a magic wand, they would take Taiwan and not just…

I mean, it depends on what you mean by "rebellious". There is a lot more nuance than that. From the Kuomingtang's perspective, the CCP are the rebels.

One piece of history is that after Sun Yat-Sen died, his successor Chang Kai Shek purged the Kuomingtang of any socialist, community, and otherwise left-leaning members of their assembly. When some members escaped the purge, this sowed the seeds of the CCP that came to fruit after fighting off the Japanese during WWII.

When the Kuomingtang retreated to Taiwan, it was not run as a republic or a democratic society. Martial law ended in 1987 and a second political party did not appear until it was illegally formed in 1986. The Kuomingtang and its coalition continues to identify with China -- the civilization -- whereas the DDP-lead coalition is done with that and wants their own national identity of Taiwain.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#887

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. China takes Taiwan quickly. That is extremely unlikely to happen, Taipei has invested a lot in defense, and until lately the public in Taiwan at least says they would fight[1]. It's extremely unlikely that they will fold so fast that the US won't have to get involved or to choose to not get involved. > 3. Taiwan successfully defends itself, repels the Chinese invasion, and possibly even takes back some territory…

I think it's more likely that over the next few years US power fades in the region and Taiwan strikes a bargain with China. The Taiwanese are extremely pragmatic when it comes to these sorts of things, and I somehow doubt they'll enter into a conflict they know they can't win. China is also pragmatic and would be willing to allow Taiwan significant autonomy if they can on paper say they've reunited Taiwan with the mo…

In my opinion, the most likely scenario is that China will ramp up pressure with "gray zone" actions, (exercises of the coast, election interference, propaganda, cyber attacks, air defense zone and airspace incursions, overflights over straits islands), while at the same time pushing for negotiations for peaceful reunification.

Essentially salami slicing Taiwan sovereignty, in order to undermine their authority and erode their red lines without triggering a conflict, and attempting to demonstrate resistance as futile.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#888

I was surprised to learn Taiwan has dabbled in nuclear weapons in the past. They actually got caught developing them and had to swear they'd stop. Given that the US is doing a professional wrestling 'heel turn' and is now The Bad Guys, I wouldn't be surprised if, like NK, they just come out and announce that they have nukes. Honestly, and this is bad for the world but smart in a game theory sense, I think a lot of co…

I don't understand what makes the US "The Bad Guys" in the same sentence that mentions North Korea and China?

I think it’s Eurocentric to imply that China is morally inferior to the US. Yes the United States have more personal liberties, but China has less wealth inequality. While the US is more democratic, we have had many questionable elections in our history. Most notably in favor of the victor, Nixon committed treason by sabotaging peace talks in order to influence the ‘68 election [0]. Giving more recent examples of questionable elections would be too controversial and political for HN.

When discussing nuclear proliferation, North Korea is pretty much the worst example and should be mentioned.

[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/02/us/politics/nixon-tried-t...

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#889

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand what makes the US "The Bad Guys" in the same sentence that mentions North Korea and China?

I don't think they were equating the US to North Korea (where is China mentioned?), but saying that since the US can no longer be relies on for protection (instead of the sheriff we're at best the anti-hero that will maybe protect you if there's something in it for us). This means countries need to put up a stronger front themselves since there's no larger stabilizing force to rely on. It's interesting, because I'm s…

Agreed that stability is super important.

So much so in fact that you’d think more rich countries would help pay to maintain it.

But yet here we are…

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#890

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can we really be sure what the new 2025 version of the US would do in such a scenario? I highly doubt the new US is going to intervene in defence of any of its erstwhile allies.

Trump's extreme unpredictability might actually be a advantage in this scenario.

He's not unpredictable. He's extremely self interested which makes him predictable.
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