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Priced out of home ownership

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Re: Priced out of home ownership

#881
post #864
post #833

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly! And important to recognize the interest groups behind preventing progress on each. Fixing the issue has been stymied for too long by each pointing at the others and saying "They're the real problem!" to justify inaction / rolling back fixes on their pet interest. All need to be addressed.

These aren't all issues though. Another contributing factor is that home/lands ownership can be inherited. That's going to be the biggest contributer as time goes on (not right now though), as eventually all desired land will have been bought by what amounts to an oligarchy. Honestly, land/homes should never be inheritable, and companies should never be able to own land altogether. Not that this would ever happen. Th…

Where do you get this "should"? What moral basis do you use for saying that it "should" be this way?

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#882
post #677

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is it takes significant pressure over time for any real effect to occur here. Think San Francisco or New York in the 70’s type of ‘urban decay’. [ https://amp.theguardian.com/cities/2015/may/18/welcome-to-fe... A one-off broken window, or never cutting your grass isn’t going to do anything. Realistically? High central bank rates for awhile does the same thing. 1974 had a fed rate of 10.74%, 1975 5.82%, etc.…

But we don't control the fed. The degree to which these investments are risky is our only lever.

Unless you’re forming your own street gang (or conspiracy in the city planning dept.), my point is that you aren’t meaningfully influencing how risky the investment is either.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#883
post #795

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UK has massively high house prices - at least in "desirable" areas, and some not so desirable ones where it's possible to commute to work in a desirable area. That doesn't necessarily reflect a shortage, it also reflects availability of money - and therefore the market bearing higher prices. It also reflects the unevenness of the UK economy: the expensive and unaffordable housing is mostly in and around London (where…

> UK has massively high house prices - at least in "desirable" areas, and some not so desirable ones where it's possible to commute to work in a desirable area. Other than very undesirable areas, the house prices are pretty bad. I have friends living nowhere near London in remote Scotland noticing the house price increase. I've seen a local property double in price after ~11 years. > That doesn't necessarily reflect…

> It's not clear who has an availability of money. I'm aware of zero people within recent years buying a home without a mortgage. Availability of money has never been worse.

"Availability of money" includes the ability to apply for, and service the debt on, a mortgage.

> I don't think we're seeing 4x the living standard of 1970. It also doesn't explain that we see house prices increase by more than 4x relative to wages [1].

I don't remember 1970, but there's no particular reason we should expect to have 4x living standard.. competition for housing can eat up a much bigger slice of the overall pie, as long as people are willing to compete.

> But this would defend what I said, that demand outstrips supply. There is a saying at auctions: "it's only worth what somebody else is willing to pay for it."

100% - but if nobody CAN pay (the asking price), nobody will be willing to pay it. And that's where positional goods matter, because effectively people are jostling for a place in a ranked queue. The prices are a function of "how much money are the people in the queue able and willing to raise and deploy". And so it's natural to have situations where incomes might only go up by 50%, but house prices can rise MUCH more if interest rates are low and the bulk of that extra income is discretionary.

> It's not working, the NHS is failing. Where I live I cannot get an appointment any more. If I am lucky the doctor calls me and essentially prescribes anything I ask for. I recently saw a similar situation with midwifery.

Bad here too, but most of the staff are immigrants or of immigrant background so I find it hard to blame that on migration, it'd be a lot worse if they turned the taps off. It's more to do with our population (native Brits and 1960s/70s immigrants) being elderly, unhealthy and generally decrepit, and a health service that tries to do too much. It excels at keeping people alive, but it sucks at keeping them healthy.

> We are now at the state where children are deferred from starting school because there just are no place

Not the case here, in a high-immigration area: they're actually closing primary schools because there aren't enough kids to fill them.

> I don't think that is fair, the answer isn't to build on every square metre of the UK until it's gone. Besides, if they get rid of the train station car park, where will all the commuters park? (I've seen this one play out, they park everywhere else.)

They should walk or take the bus. I'm talking about stations that are at most a mile or so spread out and usually served by half a dozen bus routes, suburban zone 3 & 4 London. Wouldn't work further out where distances are longer.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#884

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is the vacancy rate so low in desirable neighborhoods? Is it that there isn’t enough housing period, in the entire country. Or is it is people and investments abandoning rural areas in favor of a handful of city neighborhoods? I’m also curious if those vacancy rates can be / have incentive to be gamed by the homeowners, or otherwise don’t paint a very accurate picture. I lived in a wealthy part of NYC for a while…

Just a note that "occupied" != "can see people milling about". A lot of people (particularly in NYC) treat their apartment as just a place to sleep. During the day, they're at work. For breakfast and dinner, they eat out. In the evenings, they hit the clubs, or go over to a friend's, or visit one of any number of cultural attractions. That's why they live in NYC, because of the density of non-home forms of entertainm…

Heck, it can make financial sense too. We tend to keep our windows covered most the day regardless of season. In winter it helps to keep the heat in and there's no natural light to miss out on anyway. In summer it helps to keep the heat out, and we mostly don't care about natural light in the apartment because we're outside enjoying the weather. (What's even the point of living in the city with the highest % public green space in North America if we're going to just stay at home bingeing Netflix all evening?)

And you can't necessarily see the lights on when somebody's home because we use the most blackout-y blackout curtains we can get. Urban light pollution has gotten so bad - especially since the switch to superbright LEDs - that they've become a sleep hygiene necessity.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#885

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is the vacancy rate so low in desirable neighborhoods? Is it that there isn’t enough housing period, in the entire country. Or is it is people and investments abandoning rural areas in favor of a handful of city neighborhoods? I’m also curious if those vacancy rates can be / have incentive to be gamed by the homeowners, or otherwise don’t paint a very accurate picture. I lived in a wealthy part of NYC for a while…

Just a note that "occupied" != "can see people milling about". A lot of people (particularly in NYC) treat their apartment as just a place to sleep. During the day, they're at work. For breakfast and dinner, they eat out. In the evenings, they hit the clubs, or go over to a friend's, or visit one of any number of cultural attractions. That's why they live in NYC, because of the density of non-home forms of entertainm…

This effect is also exacerbated in wealthier areas by bigger units. Units are less likely to seem lively because people are using a smaller proportion of rooms at any given time, and those rooms may not always even be visible to you. E.g. my grandparents flat would often have looked dark and abandoned from the courtyard, because that side of the flat was unused for much of the day, and often only lot when the curtains were closed, even when they were home and had visitors and a full house.

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#886
post #690

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vacancy rates should be lower where the total inventory increases and people’s ability to predict the market increases. That’s also going to be places people want to live. Consider a city of 10 million people vs 1,000 small towns of 10k people. The variability for demand in those small towns is higher and vacancy rates can’t drop below zero. So some towns hit 0 while others might be 20%. But in a city if some apartme…

This is a lot of mental gymnastics to pretend people don't need places to live. More people are born, hence more housing is needed.

Did you forget to factor in that it is a replacement rate? Sure, more people are born every year, but plenty of people pass along in one way or another (mortality, downsizing, various care facilities).

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#887

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is the vacancy rate so low in desirable neighborhoods? Is it that there isn’t enough housing period, in the entire country. Or is it is people and investments abandoning rural areas in favor of a handful of city neighborhoods? I’m also curious if those vacancy rates can be / have incentive to be gamed by the homeowners, or otherwise don’t paint a very accurate picture. I lived in a wealthy part of NYC for a while…

Desirable neighborhoods in Canada and US typically resemble pre-automobile orientated design type neighborhoods. These are on short supply. So while there might be enough physical houses around the country/province/city, what makes a place desirable to live extends far beyond the walls of your home.

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Re: Priced out of home ownership

#888

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where I am there’s been a huge increase in houses being bought for cash by equity hedge funds, like 25% of houses going on the market. Nearby Kushner bought hundreds of houses in Baltimore. The impact of this is that house prices soared because no one can compete against a multi-billion-dollar company to buy a house, which artificially pushes up prices. Secondly, I’ve done a lot of engagement with policy makers and b…

> Where I am there’s been a huge increase in houses being bought for cash by equity hedge funds, like 25% of houses going on the market. Is this increase in absolute number of sales, or increase in the percentage? Because, if the house affordability due to high interest rates goes down, one of the only buyers with money that remain are hedge funds. So, in the past you had 1000 homes selling per year, 100 of those goi…

It seems to be an increase in both absolute number of sales and increase in the percentage. Some signs indicate hedge funds purchasing consumer real estate (houses/apartments) is working towards an all time high thanks to the bottom falling out of the commercial real estate market in 2020 and it being far less reliable an investment post remote-work culture. A lot of commercial real estate investors have flipped to consumer real estate in a way they hadn't before. It may be a while before a new equilibrium happens.

(This is where investments in risky things like flipping various cities' "downtown' commercial real estate into additional consumer real estate are starting to look really interesting, especially in some of the cities that had massive corporate tower investments just pre-2020. It's also where you see some cities directly and indirectly pressuring major corporations into RTO policies in the hopes of it releasing some of the pressure on the consumer real estate market in those cities by encouraging hedge funds to reinvest in corporate real estate. It's hard not to feel those pressures are somewhat futile long term, but to feel sympathy for why they seem like necessary short term sandbagging projects.)

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#889
post #274

People intuitively jump to the conclusion that the problem is caused by a lack of building. While more building would help, a lack of it isn't the main cause of this problem. Ask yourself, do Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the US, Britain, Ireland, etc, all have the same inability to build or is there maybe some other common cause? In my view this is symptomatic of a more fundamental issue - global asset price infla…

> do Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the US, Britain, Ireland, etc, all have the same inability to build …? Sort of? See eg https://www.ft.com/content/dca3f034-bfe8-4f21-bcdc-2b274053f... for some graphs that show Europe vs anglophone countries in an obvious way. Obviously there are lots of differences between the countries, eg the specifics of their planning systems and economies. The US is different because of the…

> I don’t know why prices are still up though – if interest rates being high was making housing unaffordable, one would expect prices to be down.

We printed ~25% of all money in existence since 2020 so that obv means more diluted money chasing scarce housing (applies to everyone worldwide)

High real estate prices might be the new norm :(

Re: Priced out of home ownership

#890

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People really want there to be "one reason" for skyrocketing housing prices. Real life is not so accommodating. The problem is multi-faceted. Is there asset price inflation due to cheap money? Yes. Have foreign nationals been parking their cash in real estate in certain western countries? Yes. Has restrictive zoning and NIMBY-ism reduced the incoming supply of new homes? Yes. Multiple things can be true at the same t…

Multi-faceted and interrelated: a lot of housing would become a less attractive investment vehicle if near-substitutes were more plentiful. An overseas investor buying a Vancouver condo assumes that the asset will have high resale value (in addition to its use value as, e.g., a rental or airbnb). But in a saner world, housing would depreciate in value over time in proportion to its use and maintenance, like other dur…

> But in a saner world, housing would depreciate in value over time in proportion to its use and maintenance, like other durable goods.

Without any external influencing factors, a house would not typically depreciate. So a depreciating house isn't normal, there is something external causing it (like the city is going broke, lost most jobs, or environmental factors make the area bad to live in, etc).

But if all is well, a house will not depreciate if it is lived in and maintained. A house can last centuries and inflation means building an equivalent house is always more expensive later than it was to build this one.

So it is not natural to expect a house to depreciate.

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