Earlier quoted context omitted.
Clearly we don’t know when/if AGI would happen, but the expectations of many people working in the field is it will arrive in what qualifies as ‘near future’. It probably won’t result from just scaling LLMs, but then that’s why there’s a lot of researchers trying to find the next significant advancement, in parallel with others trying to commercially exploit LLMs.
The same way that the expectation of many people working within the self-driving field in 2016 was that level 5 autonomy was right around the corner. Take this stuff with a HUGE grain of salt. A lot of goofy hyperbolic people work in AI (any startup, really).
And it _could_ be just one clever breakthrough away, and that could happen tomorrow, or it could be centuries away. There's no way to know.