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Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

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Re: Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

#881

For $1B he could make an exact twitter clone, and he could probably do it for much less than that. You might say, yes, but he's paying for the brand, and no one would use his clone. He could pay for a flood of advertising and other promotions to get people to switch. He could pay 42,000,000 people $1000 each to switch to his twitter clone.

You don't pay for Twitter's infrastructure, you pay for it's >210M daily active users. What it cost, in dollars and years, to replicate that? Some $200 per Twitter DAU is not extravagant, 13 years of current average revenue per user, one which could (but doesn't have to) greatly appreciate by pressing on monetization, it's at like Facebook 2014 levels.

When Facebook paid 1 and 14 billion-s for Instagram and WhatsApp, it wasn't for the handful of employees and the codebases, but the userbases with snowballing network effects. They tried replicating TikTok with Lasso and Snapchat with Poke and Slingshot, but none of that went anywhere. It's not easy to build a large userbase, and as far as I can see from social media history, all the large ones were first to get some steam in whatever niche-s they occupy. Leveraging their 3 other networks Facebook's able to bolt-on competitors to steal some inertia from the snowballs (Stories which is a larger business then Snap by now, and Reels which is seemingly going somewhere), but building a standalone social media for competing with an existing incumbent is just bloody hard. They're displaceable, but there's always been something novel when social media market shares went to or grew into a new app.

Twitter's not quite snowballing at this point, but it has entrenched itself in some important roles and niches (namely of a town square and an official outlet) that are hard to displace. It would take time, effort and significant propositions to outgrow Twitter's significance. Alternatively, one can sell a quarter (or a third once Twitter's board or shareholders refuse and he bumps the offer) of it's Tesla shares - or borrow against the whole - and buy the existing network, go from there.

A network effect is one of many forms of licenses to print money which can't just be replaced. Like a brand, any decently sized game dev team can probably clone Call of Duty or EA Sports games, won't get them the licenses to print money that Activision (soon Microsoft) and EA hold. You can make the best perfumes, it doesn't buy you Coco Chanel's money printer.

Re: Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

#883

So Twitter was at $70 per share a year ago. So what? Jack Dorsey was CEO a year ago, too. The share price was $33 less than a month ago. But, despite an absolutely incredible roller-coaster news cycle, things have been definitely trending down at Twitter ($33/share last month), which was reflected in its share price. The current executive team (and Dorsey) had wasted time focusing on things that didn't matter instead…

Fiduciary duty =/= short term gains of company stock. Shareholder interest =/= money. Shareholder votes allow other considerations can be taken into account. I agree with your comment, but it's not that hard to reject IMO.

Boards have been sued and won against for not taking takeover bids. So there is some precedence.

Re: Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

#884
post #58

> Free speech absolutism is possible and is beneficial I don't think we have evidence to support this. Pursuant to the last major thread on the topic, I was thinking further about it, and realized that the vast majority of progress civilization has made has been under conditions much more regulated in terms of which ideas may propagate. We've never had a situation where fake news can and does spread the way it does t…

> We've never had a situation where fake news can and does spread the way it does today, where authorities are being undermined like this and casually dismissed by people with no knowledge of the respective fields, etc.

There have had situations where the authorities are the ones generating fake news, and they have also criminalized dissent or corrections. I view that situation as more threatening than the current one.

Re: Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

#885

This is exactly why individuals should not be allowed to have tens (let alone hundreds!) of billions of dollars in wealth - they become all-powerful and too easily subvert the will of the people. They become their own ruling class, which is unacceptable in a functioning democracy.

How is this argument relevant? What difference is it whether person A with billions of dollars or person B with billions of dollars of net worth owns Twitter?

Democracy? No one is forcing anyone to use Twitter. Current users are free to leave.

Re: Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

#886

Can anybody make a good argument as to why Twitter (in its current form) isn’t a major detriment to society? If Twitter poofed out of existence today, it would be a major win for this planet. People talk about a frightening future with a human hostile AI that wants to destroy humanity. That exists, it’s twitter. Elon buying it, even if he runs it into the ground is a good thing. Getting rid of some of the hostile AI…

Only 23% of the US public uses Twitter, and of that 23%, 80% of the posts come from about 10% of those users. These are the numbers I point to when people want to call Twitter the "modern day public square". I don't buy it, and think that the only real significant problem with Twitter is how much credence folks that are on it (including media personalities) give it.

A lot of us are afraid to post on Twitter because of the woke crowd and cancel culture.

Re: Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

#887

I bet some of those who advocated "it's a private company, it can deplatform whoever it wants" are probably re-thinking their stance on deplatforming from a major social media.

Nah, the people who advocate that private platforms reserve the right to censor themselves tend to know what the 1st amendment means regarding government censorship.

> 1st amendment means regarding government censorship

that's just a loophole from people who have no argument so they go with the [legal in the US = Moral]. Just because the modern "public space" is now private, it doesn't make it any less bad when the group in charge arbitrairely ban groups of people based on politics, opinion, etc.

whether you like it or not (I hate it personally), the vast majority of the news and opinions that people consume today comes directly or indirectly (eg. linking an NYT article on facebook) from a handful of social media companies. It's getting even worse now that organisations and politicians are using social media platforms as their official channel of communications

I think we have a similar problem with email accounts. Getting your gmail account banned can really fuck your life and sooner or later something will have to be donne to protect people (eg. force them to a have a proper appel system or to hand over all your data +forward your emails for a while after they kick you out).

Re: Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

#888
post #58

> Free speech absolutism is possible and is beneficial I don't think we have evidence to support this. Pursuant to the last major thread on the topic, I was thinking further about it, and realized that the vast majority of progress civilization has made has been under conditions much more regulated in terms of which ideas may propagate. We've never had a situation where fake news can and does spread the way it does t…

> We've never had a situation where fake news can and does spread the way it does today

Have you heard of the church? We've had authority figures spreading lies for personal gain for millennia.

Re: Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private

#890

So Twitter was at $70 per share a year ago. So what? Jack Dorsey was CEO a year ago, too. The share price was $33 less than a month ago. But, despite an absolutely incredible roller-coaster news cycle, things have been definitely trending down at Twitter ($33/share last month), which was reflected in its share price. The current executive team (and Dorsey) had wasted time focusing on things that didn't matter instead…

No board is going to accept a low-ball offer, and that assumes Musk is even seriously offering and not pulling another stupid stunt.

Part of his strength is that he keeps people on his toes. What is a real move vs when is he trolling.
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