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AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

blog.florianherrengt.com

871–880 of 880 posts

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#871
post #819

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Milton Friedman was a libertarian crank. I'm a consumer and I'm quite happy that doctors and lawyers are licensed.

You can also buy from companies that hire licensed software engineers if you want to? The main thing that would stop people patronising licensed individuals is if there was no obvious skill gap between a licensed and unlicensed practitioner that justifies the price gap. People don't need a government body to tell them to check for credentials. If people care they can ask (I had to give a copy of my degree certificate…

That's the absurd libertarian logic. I'm supposed to be able to assess the credibility of whatever credentials I'm shown? Despite having no expertise in the field?

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#872

Between AI and competing against the world with H-1B, it's really never been harder to get an entry or mid-level software engineering job. Which means our pipeline to senior engineer is completely broken.

I disagree with pipeline being broken.

Now with agents, you can get really bad (vibe coded) code bases in a week.

Before, to get this kind of experience, you had to work in a company for at least 2 or 3 years.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#873

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It won't be photoshop then. It will be shitty, buggy clunky app that costed a (major) fraction to develop but it will also earn a fraction. Companies like MS can afford this ie with Office suite but patience of markets and customers can allow them to go only so far, if ie Excel becomes semi-useless thats the end of Office and big cash cow for M$ (I'd say about time, that monopoly is not good for consumers at all). Th…

This is cope, ai coding agents will follow the path of self driving cars. They will be watched with extreme caution, but will slowly but surely expand outwards. Eventually manually writing code will be considered a dangerous/bug introducing act

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Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#874

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're moving toward a future where intellectual workers are, indeed, fucked. At least intellectual work will be the first real casualty. I'm not AI maximalist. But with how things have progressed the past 4-5 years, I'm more confident on the above being true, than not. I don't think intellectual work will drop off overnight. There will be a long period, perhaps decade or two, where many jobs will just gradually disap…

> I don't think intellectual work will drop off overnight. There will be a long period, perhaps decade or two, where many jobs will just gradually disappear, where salaries will be suppressed, and humans will just become AI-babysitters and auditors. What I'm sick of is this passive acceptance of technological determinism. Why build a technology that's so corrosive and so destructive to so many? You've got powerful pe…

Some see it as the road to dystopia, other see it as the road to universal basic income, and a less laborious future.

The real danger is not that AI becomes smarter. The real danger is that humans never learned how to justify their existence except through labor.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#875

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Management types really really really loathe software developers for making good money Of course. I bet you loathe having to spend $70,000 to buy a nice car, too! > Capitalism simply wants to eliminate any and every cost by definition You could look up what life was like under Soviet communism. Me, I prefer capitalism.

The irony is that Soviets are famous for falling behind in computing because their 5 year plans failed to appreciate the importance.

And yet the Chinese with their 5 year plans are not falling behind in computing.

Advances in computing can not be pinned just to planned economy/capitalist economy. For example the West Germany computer industry, French computer industry, UK computer industry (with exception of ARM), Japanese computer industry have fallen behind.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#876

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't think intellectual work will drop off overnight. There will be a long period, perhaps decade or two, where many jobs will just gradually disappear, where salaries will be suppressed, and humans will just become AI-babysitters and auditors. What I'm sick of is this passive acceptance of technological determinism. Why build a technology that's so corrosive and so destructive to so many? You've got powerful pe…

Some see it as the road to dystopia, other see it as the road to universal basic income, and a less laborious future. The real danger is not that AI becomes smarter. The real danger is that humans never learned how to justify their existence except through labor.

> Some see it as the road to dystopia, other see it as the road to universal basic income, and a less laborious future.

A less laborious future is called mass unemployment. We have none of the sociological or ideological infrastructure to make that anything but a dystopia, and are making no progress on that front. Just look at what happened to the rust belt, what reason do you have to think things will be different this time?

If a happy, abundant communist future was in the cards, we'd have had it decades ago. The limit was never technological.

"Universal basic income" is just a sop to mute resistance to buy time while a small few grab most if not all economic power.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#877
post #36

It's very true, you used to have to hire people you knew were not very good just to have warm bodies who could throw together widgets, minor bug fixes, etc. You still had to have a competent developer review what they did, which was annoying, but ultimately a time saver over doing it themselves. Now the competent developer can just run agents and do the same review process, except it's ~free (relative to human salari…

> it's ~free (relative to human salaries, even outsourced). Even ignoring the shift to token based costs, the opportunity costs of throwing everything onto your "competent developers" isn't free. They still need time to review and correct output on top of whatever else they were doing in their day to day. And they probably aren't getting a pay raise either, so how long until they use that bullet point to jump jobs?

> the opportunity costs of throwing everything onto your "competent developers" isn't free. They still need time to review and correct output on top of whatever else they were doing in their day to day.

Maybe it wasn't clear in my comment, but this was already happening in many large organizations pre-AI: you had a small contingent of competent senior developers whose job was to review and correct outputs from junior and/or outsourced staff. From people I've spoken to in these types of situations, they're very happy with getting rid of their offshore teams and using AI instead.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#878

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The class consciousness from middle class lately has been funny to me. We always had poor people that were "permanent underclass" and middle class didn't care. They were not afraid of revolution or whatever we are afraid now. If the bad scenario happens and 99% of the people becomes irrelevant to the economy, everybody will live their life's worried about basic necessities and smart hardworking people will be richer…

> We always had poor people that were "permanent underclass" I don't believe this at all. Social mobility definitely existed. It was at least possible to educate oneself and rise in society. Maybe the effort required wasn't equal for everybody, but it sure as hell wasn't impossible, because I've personally seen it happen. That is fundamentally different from this supposedly K shaped economy world where it is literall…

> I don't believe this at all. Social mobility definitely existed. It was at least possible to educate oneself and rise in society. Maybe the effort required wasn't equal for everybody, but it sure as hell wasn't impossible, because I've personally seen it happen.

If you believe that, nothing will change much. It will still be possible, just the effort and luck required will be way bigger for the middle class to become rich. That's sad, but life is not fair and we are not entitled to social mobility the same way we are not entitled to housing, food and leisure.

If the cyberpunk dystopia happens, the trillionaires will live in the moon or Mars, and we will live here, maybe with shittier lifes, but that's on us. If we want to avoid that, we just need to become billionaires as well. Sadly, I'm too lazy for that, so I accept that it will never happen to me. I accepted that I will be "permanent underclass", because I don't see a reason for post scarcity to happen.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#879

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Like what other profession markets themselves as "Hey, our job is so easy that any schmuck off the street can enter the career with 4 months of training." For one, the industry never did professionalize to begin with, certainly not in the way accountants, lawyers etc did. We never had any real body that could certify proficiency, which is what contributed to companies having to resort to leetcode and other such sty…

Ok, but consider if we had professionalized in, say, the late 90s. Would we be insisting everyone writes bad 90s style OO code because that's the professional standard? How do you have standards when the field is still figuring itself out?

It also changes every year or two. Plumbing, for instance, hasn't changed much in decades.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#880

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But now they can now move so fast that nobody has a realistic chance to stop them before the damage compounds. They get into a much deeper mess much faster.

We always talk about damage, what's the damage here?

Time lost when the real developers have to pick up the pieces and the viber has just moved on to the next shiny thing.
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