Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

jpmorgan.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

871–880 of 913 posts

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#871

Post by lpcvoid »

Saline9515 wrote: post #856
lpcvoid wrote: post #853

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kremlin mouth-peaces can express their bullshit worldview outside of the EU, and they do that quite liberally. It's up to society to ignore them, ultimately it's everybodys own decision. But if you come somewhere, spread propaganda while being paid by adversaries, then you aren't welcome. I applaud the EUs sanctioning of these individuals, and I don't really care to hear from pro-russian folks why that's a bad thing…

I don't like "Kremlin influencers", that said the Streisand effect is real, and the slope is very slippery from here to include other people along the ride. Will we also sanction Elon Musk and other pro-MAGA individuals after the current rift between the EU and the US? Why not include Chinese ones, too, who are actually quite active? Also, far-right influencers? Far-left? They are nazis/communists after all! Or, if y…

I find the hate speech laws good. They enforce a certain decency in communication, something that MAGAs lack.

>Will we also sanction Elon Musk and other pro-MAGA individuals after the current rift between the EU and the US? Why not include Chinese ones, too, who are actually quite active? Also, far-right influencers? Far-left? They are nazis/communists after all!

Fantastic idea, unironically. But IMHO the far left is way less of a threat to humanity than the far right is right now. But extreme political fringes are never good.

>I don't like "Kremlin influencers", that said the Streisand effect is real, and the slope is very slippery from here to include other people along the ride.

The rules for not being sanctioned are easy to follow. Don't be a russian asset - that's basically it. Shouldn't be so hard.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#872

Post by jollyllama »

kipchak wrote: post #767
jollyllama wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing. The Dollar is antifragile. The worse it gets, the more entrenched it becomes. [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham%27s_law

Couldn't you make the same case for every other former reserve currency which has had something replace it?

Prior reserve currency failures involved currency collapses. I think Gresham accounts for this. Looking at the particular mechanisms of collapse, I think they all involve a failed transition to fiat. Can you name another example of a currency that survived the transition to pure fiat (i.e. not backed by metals in any respect)? The dollar did this in the 70s and continued to increase its dominance in the decades that followed. In all cases of prior world currencies, I don't think any survived the transition to pure fiat. Sure, a theoretical dollar collapse could spell a return to gold or silver, but you'd have to make a case for total collapse, rather than just the dollar being eclipsed by some other currency.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#873

Post by lII1lIlI11ll »

jmyeet wrote: post #805
mullingitover wrote: post #791

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Overall some great points here, but some don't make sense. > The real problem is that Russia wants a warm water port on the Black Sea Russia already had several other ports on the Black Sea, so it's not clear to me why they'd need to invade Ukrainian territory to get one extra. > Germany would always veto Ukraine's membership because they don't want NATO on Russia's borders. They've already voted three other Russia-b…

> Russia already had several other ports on the Black Sea You're not wrong. I kind of glossed over the details for brevity. Sevastopol has historically been the home of the Russian Black Sea fleet and is a much larger port than other Russian ports on the Black Sea, who also have significant commercial traffic, so they're much more crowded. Behind all this is the Montreux Convention on Turkey's governance of the Bosph…

> Anyone with a permanent naval base on the Black Sea is allowed to traverse the straits (other than in times of war; it's complicated) so should Sevastopol in future fall into enemy hands, it would allow a foreign military power to station warships in the Black Sea. That foreign power could be Ukraine as a NATO member.

You have already been corrected regarding ports in Crimea being the only ones available to Russia and your reply doesn't make any sense either. There are multiple NATO member countries with ports on the Black Sea. Including Turkey who controls Bosphorus!

> Russia does have a "legitimate" interest in not having a hostile Great Power on its borders. I include NATO as an extension of the US. I say "legitimate" in the sense that they're doing the exact same thing the US does. The US has the (ever-changing) Monroe Doctrine and almost started World War Three over Cuba (despite instigating the confrontation in Turkey).

Russia already shares borders with multiple NATO countries. Invading Ukraine caused yet another country (Finland) to join and Russia didn't seem to concerned about it.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#874

Post by etruong42 »

mullingitover wrote: post #697
ifwinterco wrote: post #670

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can also draw a comparison with the late imperial stage of other empires, most recently the British. The British Empire actually reached its greatest territorial extent in the 1920s and 30s, but it was overextended, policymaking was becoming increasingly erratic and in hindsight we can see the writing was already on the wall

The British didn't really make unforced errors like Germany did, though. They mostly were forced into a fire sale situation as they were fighting for their lives. Even with everything they sold off, they were still within an inch of surrendering. The French story is similar. They may have been in a slow decline, but the war threw them off a cliff. It's hard to look at what the US is doing and not become extremely ang…

(As a US citizen self-identified moderate) I think I understand some of the intentions of de-dollarization. Being the reserve currency is an exorbitant privilege of forcing the world to allow the US to essentially print money that the world ends up using. It is not a privilege that "the average American" gets to enjoy for many, many reasons. It might be telling that no other nation is trying to fill that role of reserve currency with their own currency; perhaps it's not as much of a privilege as we might think. Given the political climate, both domestic and foreign, I think de-dollarization has large potential upside for the well-being of humans.

I see the US trying to position itself so that it is no longer the world power/world police, or at least significantly reduce the magnitude of the role it plays as the world police. This will bring about a new world order and upend existing diplomatic relationships which will bring about chaos and uncertainty.

I disagree with kidnapping Maduro and posturing to annex Greenland on the grounds of national sovereignty; I actually like the rules-based world order (even if I am not so attached to the USD being the reserve currency).

The actions of the Trump administration clearly and perhaps even intentionally puts the US hegemony at great risk and thus also invites much chaos. This, I still humbly see the possible upside. The Trump administration is also accelerating the deterioration of the rules-based world order. This, I do not particularly support, though I see the possible counterargument that this is only accelerating what was game-theoretically inevitable anyways.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#875

Post by jollyllama »

Qem wrote: post #745
jollyllama wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing. The Dollar is antifragile. The worse it gets, the more entrenched it becomes. [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham%27s_law

> The Dollar is antifragile. Apparently the guy that invented the concept disagrees: https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1914633020671246352

Ok, good for Taleb, he made a good investment potentially, but gold increasing in value relative to the dollar doesn't make it the reserve currency. Being used in transactions makes it the world currency. Otherwise, nvidia stock would be the new world reserve currency.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#876

Post by direwolf20 »

jmyeet wrote: post #805
mullingitover wrote: post #791

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Overall some great points here, but some don't make sense. > The real problem is that Russia wants a warm water port on the Black Sea Russia already had several other ports on the Black Sea, so it's not clear to me why they'd need to invade Ukrainian territory to get one extra. > Germany would always veto Ukraine's membership because they don't want NATO on Russia's borders. They've already voted three other Russia-b…

> Russia already had several other ports on the Black Sea You're not wrong. I kind of glossed over the details for brevity. Sevastopol has historically been the home of the Russian Black Sea fleet and is a much larger port than other Russian ports on the Black Sea, who also have significant commercial traffic, so they're much more crowded. Behind all this is the Montreux Convention on Turkey's governance of the Bosph…

[dead]

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#877

Post by direwolf20 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #312
TSiege wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're also forgetting BRICs and the EU's efforts to create their own banking systems that would make it easier to do trade and finances without the dollar as an intermediary. The dollar being the reserve currency is going to be come more sudden once mass adoption of those platforms takes hold. Who can blame them with how the US is behaving

> BRICs and the EU's efforts to create their own banking systems One of these exists. The other is bluster.

[dead]

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#878

Post by direwolf20 »

elAhmo wrote: post #522
hnburnsy wrote: post #77

For those who are not bothering to read this,the article essentially states that de-dollarization is happening in pockets (e.g., reserves down to ~58-60%, Treasuries foreign ownership at 30%), but the dollar's core dominance persists. What would replace it? I guess the options are Yuan, Gold, Oil or maybe BRICS in the future, none of which are safe, stable, and liquid.

I can't believe people actually bring BRICS in serious discussions.

[dead]

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#879

Post by direwolf20 »

jollyllama wrote: post #711
dybber wrote: post #695

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Soon dollars might not be accepted if US companies wants to buy things in the EU, they will have to pay in euros (part of the anti coercion instrument that Macron and others have been talking about the last couple of days)

I don't think it will happen. 10% of EU bank loans that are dollar-denominated [0]. If they cut the flow of dollars into the EU, the debtors of those loans would wind up offering a premium for their goods and services to non-US companies, making them uncompetitive. It would be a roundabout tariff that would hurt the EU countries too much. [0] https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publicat...

[dead]

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#880

Post by direwolf20 »

krupan wrote: post #413
postalrat wrote: post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has at least one fatal flaw: the math it is based on. I feel like it won't be too long before a few major weaknesses are found and bitcoin will lose all security.

Bitcoin has been running since 2009 with plenty of incentive for hackers to find flaws in it and they haven't found any. It uses standard cryptography that is used by all our computer systems. If a flaw exists it's not just bitcoin that will be damaged but everything we use.

[dead]
Post reply on HN