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IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

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Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#871

Post by guywithahat »

blablabla123 wrote: post #533

Despite the flashy title that's the first "sober" analysis from a CEO I read about the technology. While not even really news, it's also worth mentioning that the energy requirements are impossible to fulfill Also now using ChatGPT intensely since months for all kinds of tasks and having tried Claude etc. None of this is on par with a human. The code snippets are straight out of Stackoverflow...

> it's also worth mentioning that the energy requirements are impossible to fulfill

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you but they're definitely not impossible to fulfill, in fact I'd argue the energy requirements are some of the most straightforward to fulfill. Bringing a natural gas power plant online is not the hardest part in creating AGI

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#872

Post by fvv »

infecto wrote: post #745
blablabla123 wrote: post #533

Despite the flashy title that's the first "sober" analysis from a CEO I read about the technology. While not even really news, it's also worth mentioning that the energy requirements are impossible to fulfill Also now using ChatGPT intensely since months for all kinds of tasks and having tried Claude etc. None of this is on par with a human. The code snippets are straight out of Stackoverflow...

I am a senior engineer, I use cursor a lot in my day to day. I find I can code longer and typically faster than without. Is it on par with human? It’s getting pretty darn close to be honest, I am sure the “10x” engineers of the world would disagree but it definitely has surpassed a junior engineer. We all have our anecdotes but I am inclined to believe on average there is net value.

it surpassed 30 junior engineers

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#873

Post by beepbooptheory »

sahn44 wrote: post #846
beepbooptheory wrote: post #779

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be clear, roughly 39.8 hours of just prompting and output to make this website?

41 hours total of prompting, looking at code diffs, reverting, reprompting, and occasional direct code commits. I do review the full code changes nearly every step of the way and often iterate numerous times until I'm satisfied with the resulting code approach.

Have you tried to go back to the old way, maybe just as an experiment, to see how much time you are actually saving? You might be a little surprised! Significant "reprompting" time to me indicates maybe a little too much relying on it rather than leading by example. Things are much faster in general if you find the right loop of maybe using Claude for like 15%-20% of stuff instead of 99.7%. You wouldn't give your junior 99.7% ownership of the app unless they were your only person, right? I find spending time thinking through certain things by hand will make you so much more productive, and the code will generally be much better quality.

I get that like 3 years ago we were all just essentially proving points building apps completely with prompts, and they make good blog subjects maybe, but in practice they end up being either fragile novelties or bloated rat's nests that end up taking more time not less.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#874

Post by adastra22 »

tw04 wrote: post #797
mattlondon wrote: post #771

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take this "sober" analysis with a big pinch of salt. IBM have totally missed the AI boat, and a large chunk of their revenue comes from selling expensive consultants to clients who do not have the expertise to do IT work themselves - this business model is at a high risk of being disrupted by those clients just using AI agents instead of paying $2-5000/day for a team of 20 barely-qualified new-grads in some far-off c…

Missed the boat? Have you been living under a rock? Watson AI advertising has been everywhere for years. It’s not that they aren't in the AI space, it’s that the CEO has a shockingly sober take on it. Probably because they’ve been doing AI for 30+ years combined with the fact they don’t have endless money with nowhere to invest it like Google.

The only similarity of Watson-style “AI” and generative “AI” is the name.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#875

Post by N19PEDL2 »

pulse7 wrote: post #858
diggyhole wrote: post #802

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. Just like Intel completely shitting the bed on GPUs then their CEO tweeted a prayer. Old tech companies are going to be left behind.

IBM was founded in 1911 and it survived many things...

So did GE…

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#876

Post by vultour »

mattlondon wrote: post #771
blablabla123 wrote: post #533

Despite the flashy title that's the first "sober" analysis from a CEO I read about the technology. While not even really news, it's also worth mentioning that the energy requirements are impossible to fulfill Also now using ChatGPT intensely since months for all kinds of tasks and having tried Claude etc. None of this is on par with a human. The code snippets are straight out of Stackoverflow...

Take this "sober" analysis with a big pinch of salt. IBM have totally missed the AI boat, and a large chunk of their revenue comes from selling expensive consultants to clients who do not have the expertise to do IT work themselves - this business model is at a high risk of being disrupted by those clients just using AI agents instead of paying $2-5000/day for a team of 20 barely-qualified new-grads in some far-off c…

Do you expect Sam Altman to come on stage and tell you the whole thing is a giant house of cards when the entire western economy seems to be propped up by AI? I wonder whose "sober" analysis you would accept, because surely the people that are making money hand over fist will never admit it.

Seems to me like any criticism of AI is always handwaved away with the same arguments. Either it's companies who missed the AI wave, or the models are improving incredibly quickly so if it's shit today you just have to wait one more year, or if you're not seeing 100x improvements in productivity you must be using it wrong.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#877

Post by randomNumber7 »

AlexandrB wrote: post #851
randomNumber7 wrote: post #600

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't know why this time would be any different. This time there is the potential to replace human workers. In the past it only made them more productive.

I think that's a distinction without difference. If one person can do the job of 10 thanks to automation, what happens to the other 9 who were doing that job before?

You can also produce 10x the goods with the same amount of workers or let the other 9 work in other jobs.

The difference is that previously there still had been plenty of (low skill) jobs where automation didn't work. Pizza delivery, taxi driver, lots of office jobs with repetitive tasks etc.

Soon there will be nothing for the average joe as the machine will be better in all tasks he could perform.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#878

Post by fleroviumna »

QuercusMax wrote: post #840
deepGem wrote: post #805

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would any day take chatGPT/Claude over an IBM consultant. I worked at IBM.

I'd rather be slapped in the face than kicked by a horse, but that doesn't mean either is a good thing

[dead]

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#879

Post by adastra22 »

boringg wrote: post #765
infecto wrote: post #745

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am a senior engineer, I use cursor a lot in my day to day. I find I can code longer and typically faster than without. Is it on par with human? It’s getting pretty darn close to be honest, I am sure the “10x” engineers of the world would disagree but it definitely has surpassed a junior engineer. We all have our anecdotes but I am inclined to believe on average there is net value.

I think surpassed is not the right word because it doesn't create/ideate. However it is incredibly resourceful. Maybe like having a jr engineer to do your bidding without thinking or growing.

I use AI tools extensively. I have seen it come up with truly novel solutions.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#880

Post by adastra22 »

trueismywork wrote: post #832
tim333 wrote: post #818

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An issue with the doom forecasts is most of the hypothetical $8tn hasn't happened yet. Current big tech capex is about $315bn this year, $250bn last against a pre AI level ~$100bn so ~$400bn has been spent so far on AI boom data centers. https://sherwood.news/business/amazon-plans-100-billion-spen... The future spend is optional - AGI takeoff, you spend loads, not happening not so much. Say it levels of at $800bn. Th…

65% of people in the world earn less than 3000 euros/year.

The power distribution goes the other way too. There are outliers that will spend much more per capita.
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