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Labor shortage or terrible jobs?

annehelen.substack.com

871–880 of 1001 posts

Re: Labor shortage or terrible jobs?

#871
post #330
post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine scenario where you have $100k and you can open a small restaurant, create jobs, maybe not best jobs but still some people will be putting food on the table with your help, some students will pay for their collage. But you count the costs and it turns out you will break even in 50 years or if anything goes bad never, like, one bad hire will drown you. You look at Google, Apple, Facebook stocks ... there is alw…

https://academictimes.com/economic-news-reporting-suffers-fr... No. News sources are focusing on business instead of labor's issues, because news statistically favors business interests, not labor's. If your hypothetical business owner is unable to start a business without paying a reasonable wage, then that business should not exist. And your hypothetical business owner should invest in Apple, Facebook, or otherwise…

"A business that cannot pay employees is not a business that adds value to society, and nothing of value is lost."

Value is a tricky expression here. There is a short term value and a long term value, and they may be very different.

Let us say that a mom-and-pop restaurant that cooks fairly healthy meals is squeezed out by McDonalds and shuts down. 50 years down the line, the fast food triumph has serious consequences on health of the nation.

But immediate market interactions cannot capture this development. The short term "Yay for salty and sugary food for less money!" win does not include the fact that you are buying an invisible "Type 2 diabetes and morbid obesity at the age of 40" item, too.

Re: Labor shortage or terrible jobs?

#872

This article unfortunately doesn't address the business side of the problem. Fast food restaurants, or place like "Dale's" mentioned in the article, make very little profit. It is most likely below 10%. Here is an estimate: https://www.restaurant365.com/blog/what-is-the-average-profi... . A 10% profit is very modest. That's not the story of the "fat cats getting rich on the back of the workers" that the article is al…

The tone of this article also sounded like she was spitting it through clenched teeth, which I found to be incredibly distracting and defeating to the point the author was attempting to make. Was the point small business owners at establishments like Dales are facing troubles because they're fat-cat capitalist Trumpian Covid deniers whose problems aren't valid as such? That's what it sounded like. I look forward to w…

> Was the point small business owners at establishments like Dales are facing troubles because they're fat-cat capitalist Trumpian Covid deniers whose problems aren't valid as such?

You still have to understand the workers are also the one who's getting fucked here. The owner of the grill in the article is deliberately worsening working conditions because of his beliefs on Covid, and it's perfectly reasonable that the workers will leave you to get a new job where your boss doesn't spread Covid on you by not wearing masks. I understand businesses are hard right now, but business owners should care a bit about hygiene, it's not something that would cost you a lot.

> This city is amid a dire housing shortage, expedited by lack of new construction and a migration of buyers from more lucrative economies. The median home price increased by 57% in the last 10 years, 8.6% in the last year alone to $315k. In the meantime the median family income remains only $46k.

But I think you've correctly diagnosed the real issue here - skyrocketing housing costs. Everyone suffers from this, both the workers and the small businesses. And it's a shame that the Dems and Reps are making this an "us vs. them" issue. (There's a similar dynamic in my country too, where liberals try to raise the minimum wage a bit, and then the conservatives fiercely oppose it and latch onto small business owners for support. Of course both the establishment liberals and conservatives are totally incompetent at solving skyrocketing housing costs and general economic inequality, yada yada.)

I think the real issue here is not about workers or small businesses, but just plain-old economic inequality - in the sense that the minority rich at the top can invest on housing at their heart's content (numbers seem to always go UP!) but the majority can't afford those prices. So even though the majority at the bottom knows that the price is bullshit, the bubble will not burst unless the rich realizes that those prices are bullshit (And do they really have to realize? They can still afford those investments though! They can stay being delusional and still enjoy all the luxuries they have!) Market price is now not an objective measure of value, but instead becomes a power that real estate investors can collectively impose onto the poor. Ah, communism for the rich, capitalism for the poor...

Re: Labor shortage or terrible jobs?

#873

This article unfortunately doesn't address the business side of the problem. Fast food restaurants, or place like "Dale's" mentioned in the article, make very little profit. It is most likely below 10%. Here is an estimate: https://www.restaurant365.com/blog/what-is-the-average-profi... . A 10% profit is very modest. That's not the story of the "fat cats getting rich on the back of the workers" that the article is al…

Forgive my ignorance here, but won't capitalism sort this all out?

Businesses need to raise prices. Some do and less people buy from them. Some can't make ends meet and close. Now the number of businesses is less. So, the number of open jobs is less. Potential employees now have a lower 'supply' of jobs. The wage for those jobs then falls. Somewhere in there, a new equilibrium is reached and everyone is unhappy for a while.

I'm not trying to discount the emotional pain that comes with this process. Putting your life into something that just blows up is hard. Especially when you had nothing to do with it. I feel for those owners, the situation is the opposite of fun.

But this is how capitalism works. The US is not a planned economy like China. Capitalism is core to the system (bastardized as it is). Markets change and shops close up. It sucks, but this is the process as I understand it. If I'm understanding it wrong, I would very much like to know because then I really am missing something big, and that's not good.

Re: Labor shortage or terrible jobs?

#874

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2 tanks a week? When I lived in Spring and commuted to the office at 610 North and I-45, it was 2 tanks a week for the 35 minute drive. That was 7 years ago. > 200 bucks a month for shit tier food? Ever heard of cooking? One week of food for one person: 2lb white rice, $1.5 1lb beans, $1.25 2lb ground meat, $10 1gal milk, $4 1lb sharp cheddar, $5 1 loaf bread, $3.5 total... $25. Times four weeks, you get $100. I ne…

$1400/mo for rent seems exorbitant, especially if you're working a minimum wage job.

Exorbitant rent is a fact of life in major cities

Re: Labor shortage or terrible jobs?

#875

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exploitive child labor is wrong. Allowing teens to willingly enter an employmemt contract is neither exploitive nor child labor.

> Allowing teens to willingly enter an employmemt contract is neither exploitive nor child labor. Non-adult teens (“Teen” spans the border) are indeed children, and their labor – while in some circumstances, quantities, etc. – permitted, is regulated as part of the broader regulation of child labor (which is not a total ban, even for very young children, and is graduated by age.) Whether it ought to be within the sco…

No, a teenager is not a child.

Re: Labor shortage or terrible jobs?

#876
post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please, define what is a poverty wage, it is important. How much stuff one should afford to avoid being called poor. What is the change of the model in case of the restaurant? I can see only one, automate the jobs away to reduce the costs, namely replace humans with robots. But, if we consider these crappy jobs, what about people that are not qualified/able to do any more advanced jobs? People have vastly different c…

> Please, define what is a poverty wage, it is important. The ability to afford adequate housing, food, and clothing. I'm not saying we should mandate people can afford a 1500 sq. ft. home, ribeye steaks every evening, and Ralph Lauren Polo threads, but how about at least a one bedroom, one bathroom apartment; nutritious, nourishing food; Walmart clothing at a minimum. > What is the change of the model in case of the…

> how about at least a one bedroom, one bathroom apartment

to me, this part sticks out like a sore thumb. a 1BR where? I make well above the median wage for my area and I can't afford a 1BR anywhere near the place I work. literally no one would consider me to be poor. a 1BR, coming with a private kitchen and bathroom, is a luxury for a single adult. it's not at all an efficient use of housing space.

a more reasonable threshold would be a private bedroom with space for a desk.

Re: Labor shortage or terrible jobs?

#877
post #548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 10% margin also often doesn't tell the whole story of how they make their money. Nearly since its inception, a substantial portion of McDonald's long term profit came from the appreciation of the real estate the stores were built on. Operating a business on it just made it cash flow positive during the holding period. So it was essentially a REIT that happened to operate a fast food chain. Even for many mom-and-pop…

In this case, why bothering operating a restaurant at all (it's a terribly terribly complex business to manage)? Just buy real estate and sit on it? I always wondered how restaurants even work - how can owners be motivated to keep themselves in this endless, poorly paid grind. In my opinion, when this is not about large chains that are effectively self-reproducing machines that don't depend on any people's motivation…

That’s an excellent question, and touches many other avenues of life too. Why bother with producing anything, when asset appreciation provides bigger gains with no effort needed

Re: Labor shortage or terrible jobs?

#878
post #610
post #553

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not all teenagers are required to go to school. Dropping out is possible, and usually 18/19 y/o don't have high school

Plus, kids from unstable homes where the parents need them to earn money will sometimes drop out of school to help their family. It's best not to incentivize that.

very specific problems have very specific solutions. if this is the main concern, make it illegal to schedule school-aged children for shifts during school hours.

Re: Labor shortage or terrible jobs?

#879

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a lot of inherent assumptions in your rebuttal. >Rent- get a roommate or rent a room instead of a one bedroom flat. Rent is reduced from $1400. While that is an option, it is not reasonable to make that assertion for the millions of people struggling without adequate housing. How can you tell people, with a straight face, that have been sexually assaulted, robbed, or battered by previous roommates that they…

I think I’m making likely assumptions. Obviously, individual experiences will vary, but when trying to estimate and model cost of living, assuming that everyone was sexually assaulted or traumatized so badly that they can never live with another is not useful. It also denigrates sexual assault victims by assuming that they are alone, without family, friendless, or without a spouse. It is possible for one to recover f…

>...when trying to estimate and model cost of living, assuming that everyone was sexually assaulted or traumatized so badly that they can never live with another is not useful.

I'm not assuming this of people, but that's quite an extreme projection you're making... Rather I'm stating that telling people to find roommates or rent a room is generally bad advice, if they're not first time renters then it is reasonable to assume they have valid reasons, that should be respected at face value, to not live in communal environments. Modeling the cost of living around communal living environments is ignoring the reality of how people want to live on a fundamental level. What people freely choose to do is different than what people with only bad options do. Communal environments are notorious for the factors I mentioned above, and many people refuse to deal with that, at great cost to themselves.

>find it odd how you’re finding rare, negative edge cases that don’t disprove my point.

My point is that 37k is insufficient for a single person to live independently in many, many, cities. 74k is also insufficient to raise a family, hence the growing movement of child free people.. Snide paternalistic advice like get roommates, get a cheaper phone/car/internet/etc is insulting and blaming the poor for being being poor. If you'd like to give free financial advice, and are qualified too do so, I can get you in touch with an organization offering these services in your community. If not, your arguments come across as made in bad faith. I've given you reasons why these common pieces of advice aren't always helpful, in good faith.

>I’m not saying that every single person can get internet for less than $100. I’m saying it’s unreasonable to assume $100 for budgeting purposes. In the rare situation where the only option for internet is $100 and one must have internet the systemic solution isn’t to pay the person an extra $100, the solution is to reduce the cost of internet. Rewarding the exploitative company charging $100/month only makes things worse within the system.

Okay, but hypothetical person needs internet today and telling them they shouldn't be paid more because the government should instead make internet cheaper is, absurd. It does nothing to help them and marginalizes their problem. If the government can't regulate ISPs like utilities what reason do poor people have to expect relief in the form of government aid? Just. Pay. People. More. 44% of households spend 100 and less per month on cable internet[] which in many places is the only option outside of dsl.

>Similarly with phones. $100/month or $1200/year is a poor assumption for someone who needs their salary to go towards more important things. In 2019 I bought a new iPhone6 from Walmart for $100 with a no contract prepaid mobile plan for $20/month. Annualized costs of only $340. I cracked and scratched the screen but if I had had to replace it I would have spent an additional $100.

That's great. But we can't assume people made a bad choice to lock themselves into an expensive phone contract, rather we should give them the benefit of the doubt and recognize that most people are not paid enough to live a dignified existence. What is someone who lost their job to do about their contract? What was affordable yesterday may not be tomorrow. This type precarity makes people act rashly.[0] I'm really trying to focus on the types of situations that poor people find themselves in, not the nuances of their budget. $100 less on internet and cell isn't world changing.

>For “normal” society and to understand people’s experiences I think it’s valuable to model what is typical and then use that as a baseline to plan protection for edge cases. In my head I’m thinking “What should we plan to fix this?” Planning and modeling with assumptions that edge cases are most common means that our mean values will be way off and we’ll have wasted resources.

We are already wasting resources everywhere. We should plan to fix expensive housing, healthcare, transportation, telecommunications. there's no political will from establishment politicians. In the mean time let's have some humanity and help people instead of just talking about it and sending out the occasional pittance.

[...your other comments about how much people should spend on phones here]

*You're way to focused on the phones. The point is everyone is an edge case somehow. Planning for averages forces more people to run into more edge cases. Say hypothetical person is now paying $50 for internet and $50 for their cell a month. What say you now?*

[] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1034487/united-states-mo...

[0] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5422783/

Tldr:

You're not putting yourself in the shoes, nor the mindset of a poor person. Try to do that. When the next meal, or bed is uncertain thinking rationally is hard. It's easy to point at a hypothetical budget and say you can do better. It's another thing to walk in the shoes of someone who's not as intelligent, gifted, connected, wealthy, or whatever as you.

Re: Labor shortage or terrible jobs?

#880

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not typical in the States. I own a new vehicle, have comprehensive insurance, and pay Geico ~$60/mo. I suspect that someone paying $300 for an old vehicle has either (a) an expensive low-deductible plan, (b) a driving record with past insurance claims, or (c) an expensive old car.

Minimum coverage, modest car, clean record, over 30 is ~$220/mo for most carriers here, $150 if you're eligible for USAA. For each factor you change you can add another 15%-40%. I'm paying $400/mo for 2 cars, no collision, above min medical.

That seems very high. I pay $28/mo with USAA. Clean record aside from a minor at-fault collision a few years back.

edit: Upon further review, it's actually double that ($56/mo), as apparently it's billed in two-week intervals.

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