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Billionaires Build

paulgraham.com

871–880 of 957 posts

Re: Billionaires Build

#871
I know the politicians are mistaken because it was my job to predict which people will become billionaires.

This does not follow. You could just as easily argue that this means you are bad at predicting billionaires. YC is 8 for 1000 in the billionaire prediction game. Maybe that is good enough to claim expertise, but I think you have to actually make that argument and not assume it.

If the key to becoming a billionaire — the defining feature of billionaires — was to exploit people, then I, as a professional billionaire scout, would surely realize this.

This does not follow. First, "if this was true, I would know" is not an argument. Second, if exploitation is necessary, but not sufficient, it might be essentially useless as a predictor while still being universal among billionaires.

Re: Billionaires Build

#872

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These days, you can start a successful internet business in your basement with just a computer. Nobody has to see you, your clothes, or your bad manners. You don't need a university education, though you can get one for free online as needed.

I mean, sure. I grew up poor and without much in the way of access to education, and the internet was really a saving grace for me, in terms of self-education, income, and simply finding community. At the same time, do you think the average income of a given internet business--let alone the segment that are run by solo entrepreneurs in their basement with just a computer and a $5 droplet--compares positively to the s…

I happen to know several people who did just that (grew up barely above what would qualify for welfare, did not go to college) and became millionaires.

Even if you fail (and you probably will) what you learn from it will position you much better when trying again. It often takes multiple failures before making it work. (Even Gates/Allen had business failures before starting Microsoft.)

> does not mean the problem is solved.

Most people don't recognize opportunity because it comes disguised as hard work :-)

Re: Billionaires Build

#873
post #823

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We were talking about needing startup capital to get the business off the ground, so this is kind of moving the goalposts. But if you have a library nearby, that can take care of a lot of the concerns you’re talking about. Before the pandemic, I frequently worked out of one. Your hypothetical 16 year old likely has a suitable spot at their school. You really don’t need an existing network to get a business started. Y…

If that’s true, why is it so rare? Why is this secret undiscovered?

It's not rare at all.

Re: Billionaires Build

#874
post #641

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s also worth noting that people who are in poverty often don’t have the option to talk back in the work place. They’re scared for a reason, if they talk back and get fired they lose their apartment. They can’t feed their kids. So on. And the sort of jobs that people in poverty have to work aren’t jobs that have to care about treating their employees well, they’re jobs that have no issue finding new cogs to place i…

Your comment only talks about their current job and not the jobs that they’ll have in the future if one dedicates themselves to spending time after work and family to learning a new skill that will promote them to another career or position. I completely agree that in roles where you are at the bottom of the totem, you can’t talk back since one is replaceable at that level. However, it’s not about speaking up at that…

The problem is that the habits people learn at their first few jobs will carry forward into jobs where the ability to talk back is an advantage, and that fixing that requires a lot of effort and either deep introspection or a good mentor who will notice the issues. By the time the issue is fixed, those who entered the system without the issues will be years or decades ahead in their careers.

Yes, someone from poverty can overcome these issues with a combination of effort and luck. But it’s hard to do, and many either don’t try or fail. This is a waste of human potential, where someone who maybe could have done better given a better starting environment loses out just due to the circumstances of their birth. Anyone who could have had a billion dollar idea and ends up hurt by their circumstances is a loss to us as a society. The tools are available for everyone who asks for it, but many are born such that they’d never trust the system enough to ask for it.

I guess I would phrase it as the difference between “their is societal mobility, in that people from any start can improve their lot” and “there is societal mobility, in that people from any start have equal opportunity as those born at the top to be successful.” America has the first, but is very far away from the second. I doubt it’s actually possible to reach the second completely of course, just get closer to it.

In the end I agree. How we actually fix this is full of so many questions. As far as America is concerned, I believe the “right to work” laws that allow firing without reason probably deeply increase the fear of those at all levels of the totem pole, but especially those close to poverty. Of course that’s just one of many issues, and repealing those laws creates economic inefficiency in making it hard to fire poor performers. Which has worse side effects is debatable, and there are endless questions indeed.

Re: Billionaires Build

#875

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Persons B, C, and D are being paid a rate proportionate to the available labor market for their product building skill set. The labor market doesn't set prices based on value to society and scarcity. If it did, nurses and teachers would be millionaires (there's a shortage of both and they provide high value to society) and middle managers would make very little (there's a glut and they provide very little value to…

> If it did, nurses [...] would be millionaires (there's a shortage of both and they provide high value to society) I know the situation in Germany will be quite different to that in the US, but the reason we have a shortage of nurses is that the pay is not decided on supply and demand in order to have enough of them, but rather as a political decision. > The law of supply and demand also doesn't explain or account f…

> I know the situation in Germany will be quite different to that in the US, but the reason we have a shortage of nurses is that the pay is not decided on supply and demand in order to have enough of them, but rather as a political decision.

Totally and this is the danger of state-controlled markets. Capitalists have a point here. I tend to argue that at least in democratic societies people have some control over it, whereas in a free labor market they don't. But in practice, like so many things democracy is supposed to fix, people largely aren't concerned with it.

> Of course it is. Teaching an employee on your systems/way of working costs money and is an element in the decision of whether or not to hire an employee. This decision affects demand and therefore price/wages.

Definitely, stickiness works both ways. We've all probably encountered situations where someone's made themselves virtually unfireable because no one can do the things they can. I think generally people characterize that as some kind of selfishness or at least a labor antipattern, but I tend to view it as a rational response to a lack of financial stability: if your employer can completely destabilize you financially, it's pretty rational to take drastic steps to guard against that.

Suffice to say it's complicated; far more complicated than the supply/demand curves charts you get in econ 101.

---

I'll add that my prescription generally is:

- Enshrine the right to organize

- Require equal profit sharing across all employees

- Require significant worker representation on corporate boards

- Heavily tax relatively high salaries, e.g. if everyone makes $1m then 0 tax. If one person makes $100k and 99 others make $1, insane super tax them down to $100 (include tricky stuff like bonuses or whatever)

- Heavily tax nationally high salaries with a progressive income tax

- Heavily punish tax dodging

- Set the minimum wage to a living wage and pin it to the CPI

- Abolish "right to work"

Re: Billionaires Build

#876
post #235

This essay uses a weak straw-man: the only way to become a billionaire is by exploiting people I think the "principle of charity" or "steel-man" criticism of billionaires isn't that every single billionaire is directly exploiting people. It would be closer to something like this: The problem is that our society has feedback loops that make it hard to escape poverty, and feedback loops that let the wealthy amass more…

I’ve come to realize that you can’t be a billionaire without either being an ahole or extremely lucky (which means your success had little to do with your actual contribution). In order to accrue that amount of wealth in one lifetime from scratch you have to screw over a lot of people. Yet, our society rewards these behaviors and in fact idolizes them. We do not reward creativity, resourcefulness, goodwill, etc. In fact these behaviors are penalized.

Re: Billionaires Build

#877
post #794

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Jeff Bezos' net worth was ~$33,600,000,000 at the beginning of 2017. I would argue things are considerably worse for the average American since then Based on what metrics? >If every American had healthcare and access to quality education, housing, and food, it would not matter to me how wealthy Jeff Bezos gets These aren't mutually exclusive though... >Snore. If you really want to reduce things to personal jabs, tha…

> Yes, cause otherwise you'll link to something and when I do "ctrl+F taxes" it wouldn't lead me to something that argues against your point ;) Yep, I underestimated your unmitigated pendantry. I suppose shouldn't have assumed that you would know that the New Deal involved raising revenue. Concise data from the 1930s isn't super easy to come by, you are going to have to look at broader economic trends and make your o…

> I suppose shouldn't have assumed that you would know that the New Deal involved raising revenue. Concise data from the 1930s isn't super easy to come by, you are going to have to look at broader economic trends and make your own conclusions.

I don't really need concise data, just some rough numbers. How much did they project the revenue act would raise, how much did it actually raise. How much did it impact investments, spending, choices etc.

Without so much as numbers its really hard to argue its impact. You could say going off the gold standard was much more impactful.

>Regardless of whether FTT would work or not, it's a single tactic (small picture), when we already successfully tax wealth in various ways (estate, property taxes).

Man... it isn't regardless. If an FTT doesn't work we're taking one step forward and several steps back.

>The big picture is breaking the power of concentrated financial power, and taxation is an obvious method.

Yea... and sometimes obvious things are not the best things.

>Nit picking specific policies seems to be a favorite bad-faith tactic to avoid acknowledging that the issue is an issue, which would then require the nitpickers to suggest ideas themselves, instead of just criticizing.

Then why would you bring up the Revenue Act? That is literally a "specific policy". Do you want me to show dozens of examples of FTTs failing? Do you simply need more?

I'm "nit picking" this because 1) I have knowledge on it as I've researched it. 2) It would personally impact me. 3) It is a ridiculous policy because it has been tried so many times and never in its history has it raised as much money as it has projected to raise. They are constantly repealed shortly after they are enacted because people realized they messed up.

Its hardly nit picking when its pretty much one of the major policies of politicians wanting to "redistribute wealth" or "fix inequality" - Bernie Sanders has talked about it at great length. Andrew Yang proposed it as one of his policies. There's nothing to nit pick. Every single time it has been tried it has been repealed after terrible results.

I'm saying I see a very high chance of the wealth tax doing the same exact thing.

Re: Billionaires Build

#878

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is not strong evidence that these feedback loops actually exist. Wealth is actually strongly mean-reverting along genetically heritable lines.

Do you live in Scandinavia? We're not talking about Scandinavia. USA ranks #27 here: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-social-mobility-...

That report is obvious bullshit and you should be able to discern that immediately. It ranks countries on “ healthcare, education, technology access, working conditions, and social protection” and then calls that “social mobility”. Zero actual analysis of intra- or inter-generational wealth variance.

Re: Billionaires Build

#879

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they have those admirable middle class traits were they born that way? Or is cultural and social inheritance as influential as genetic inheritance? I used to live in an upper middle class area, and a worrying number of the people were very polished thieves. They spent an unholy amount of time fighting over inheritances with other family members and over property boundaries with neighbours. When they worked - inevi…

You have a weird concept of "thievery". If someone's prices are too high, don't hire them. If somebody doesn't pay enough, don't work for them. If you think they are skimming money, then there has to be a way to offer the same services cheaper (without the skimming). So instead of complaining, do it. What's your excuse?

>If you think they are skimming money, then there has to be a way to offer the same services cheaper (without the skimming). So instead of complaining, do it. What's your excuse?

What if they are skimming money precisely because they made it difficult to offer the same services cheaper?

Re: Billionaires Build

#880

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are right about the feedback loops that make it hard to escape poverty. The most uncomfortable one to talk about is basic social network effects. Two people meet at some prestigious college and get married - are we shocked they have children who are predisposed for success? Besides from having god-given IQ, they are likely some combination of ambitious, punctual, respectful of authority, long-term oriented, hard-…

Heritability studies suggest this is much more strongly mediated by genetic factors (such as IQ and time preference) than social factors.

Thank god, now we can sit back and relax. No need to change anything.
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