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AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

blog.florianherrengt.com

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Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#861

Post by ehnto »

doctorwho42 wrote: post #78
scronkfinkle wrote: post #52

I think of it more as "the automation of the stackoverflow engineer". In enterprise software, there has always just been a non-negotiable large volume of code that was required to be written. This has traditionally been offloaded by having seniors do the hard thinking then distill it into a jira ticket which could be handed off to an engineer that'd actually write the code and punch every hiccup into google along the…

Again, this ignores the second order effect of entirely gutting the personnel pipeline that is required to create new senior devs... So without a training pipeline to provide experience to jr. Devs, in 15 years we will be hurting for senior devs to replace all the graybeards. Kind of like the fortran crisis of the last decade or so.... Just across an entire industry that supports every other industry....

We sort of already did that though. There is basically no mentoring in software, juniors have to teach themselves, seniors are often just the juniors who managed to get competent enough to do the job generally, and are probably not the ones you want mentoring.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#863

Post by bibimsz »

florianherrengt wrote: post #225
dupflo wrote: post #177

At the same time, it also brings very low level "vibecoder" to the pool

I wrote about this before. I don't think the vibecoders will have a job for a long time. At best, it will be minimum wage. See "AI Won't Take Your Job, Someone Using AI Will" > There's no lucrative middle ground where 'AI whispering' is a high-value skill. https://blog.florianherrengt.com/vibe-coder-career-path.html

in 2 years there wont be many non-vibe-coders left employed

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#864

Post by Folcon »

jreynar wrote: post #847

AI may indeed lead to a barbell shaped distribution - lots of people with modest skills and the need for lots of awesome people. But I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing. One of the problems with the "middle class" in the past was that there were lots of mid-level jobs in big companies but people hit a ceiling and couldn't progress. Maybe the middle hollowing out will lead to more jobs with significant opport…

This is an interesting position, what makes you believe that a decline in positions in the middle would lead to an increase in positions at the top vs just more people stuck being on the bottom rungs of the ladder?

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#865

Post by dijit »

blu3pr1n7 wrote: post #848
dijit wrote: post #843

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe treat it like other professions and have a specific title be protected?

Is it really possible to do that? I think if we were to go down this avenue we would need to consider titles other than software engineer.

yes, it's possible. That's why there's no Software "Engineers" without degrees in Quebec.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#866

Post by ehnto »

Karrot_Kream wrote: post #485
doctorwho42 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, this ignores the second order effect of entirely gutting the personnel pipeline that is required to create new senior devs... So without a training pipeline to provide experience to jr. Devs, in 15 years we will be hurting for senior devs to replace all the graybeards. Kind of like the fortran crisis of the last decade or so.... Just across an entire industry that supports every other industry....

The same thing happened to mechanical engineering decades ago when CAD came onto the scene. I have a family friend of my parents' generation who remembers feeling like his "superpower" in solving fluidics differential equations completely went out of the window once solvers could handle everything he was good at. He survived and had a good career guiding engineers into using CAD correctly. The way the industry "solve…

I don't think I've seen any university teach anything but software table stakes. If even that. Fresh grads sometimes come to us having never actually written a program of their own volition.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#867

Post by palmotea »

ATMLOTTOBEER wrote: post #842
palmotea wrote: post #784

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is the worst LLMs will ever be. Not outsourcing critical thinking to LLM will be seen as a liability in the not so distant future. Just a year or two ago almost no one even took LLM seriously for coding. Now the status quo has moved for also critical thinking, and we hear comments like this. LLM's chances of making a mistake will be orders of magnitude lowers than humans. Slowly learn to let the wheel go. AI w…

You need to git good The fact that you’re nervous means you will be the first to be replaced!

> The fact that you’re nervous means you will be the first to be replaced!

Is that sarcasm? Cause it's not too different from something I'd say sarcastically (e.g. it's very 10X AI engineer, very overconfident while missing pretty obvious things).

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#868

Post by bibimsz »

aussieguy1234 wrote: post #676

> bad engineers were always a liability So. AI Makes good engineers better, more productive and able to deliver well designed systems. But it makes the bad engineers 10x worse. Before, they had negative productivity in a team environment. Now, its 10x negative productivity. The mess they create as one person might need 10 people (and their AI's) to clean up. I would also put people who don't know how to code in that…

> ... accepting unnecessary complexity you think theyre not going to fix that?

somehow elite humans are the only ones who can ever reduce complexity?

the tooling is in its infancy. this is the worst it will ever be.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#869

Post by StrangeWill »

batshit_beaver wrote: post #731
codexon wrote: post #503

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of those companies like duolingo have already collapsed in stock price with YoY growth dropping off a cliff. It is happening, it just isn't instant.

And yet those companies aren't collapsing because it became easier to rewrite their software, but because llms themselves have replaced a core part of their business (such as translation or simple art). Seems like so far the market is not convinced at all that SaaS companies as a whole are any more disruptable than before.

That and talking to a lot of users, Duolingo reduced the quality of their service moving to LLM generated content -- a lot of people moved to other apps.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#870

Post by ehnto »

mkozlows wrote: post #113
doctorwho42 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, this ignores the second order effect of entirely gutting the personnel pipeline that is required to create new senior devs... So without a training pipeline to provide experience to jr. Devs, in 15 years we will be hurting for senior devs to replace all the graybeards. Kind of like the fortran crisis of the last decade or so.... Just across an entire industry that supports every other industry....

It's true that developing junior devs is challenging (but it always was), but that's not what this is about: This is about the kind of not-that-good, mid-ass programmers who make up the silent bulk of the industry. The ones who have 20 years of experience, but who you still wouldn't trust to write fizzbuzz. Those people are doomed. Which is fine in a lot of ways, but will be devastating for their economic prospects.

Talented people should still be worried, the problem is not the developers, it's the type of work the industry can support. There aren't that many jobs that require above average software capabilities, and you're competing with all those people who just got shafted out of their mid tier positions but actually had talent. Hopefully there will still be enough roles for all these excellent engineers.

In the same way there is only so much artisan hand crafted furniture to sell, you're a lucky craftsman if you can make a living doing that these days.

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