Live data from Hacker News

Tesla ending Models S and X production

cnbc.com

861–870 of 1001 posts

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#861

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are just being rational and pragmatic.

How so?

They say Tesla cars are not better than any other EV nowadays. They say the Tesla stock is overvalued. They say the Tesla robot will likely not be a super hit in terms of sales.

I don't see it as hate. It's quite pragmatic views.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#862

Tesla will become a case study on how to completely waste the first-mover advantage. For many people, the very term EV itself is still ubiquitous to Tesla. And somehow Tesla is still worth more than every other non-Chinese automaker combined. $1.5T. GM? $80B. Stellantis? $40B. Toyota? $280B. Mercedes-Benz? $60B. BMW? $55B. Volkswagen Group? Also $55B. I’m sure I’ve missed plenty of others, but I could miss some 18 $5…

> And to add insult to injury, even GM Super Cruise is widely renowned as better and safer than Tesla’s current “FSD”. My Huyndai's Autopilot equivalent (I don't even know what they call it) is better than the enhanced Autopilot in the Model 3 that I traded in. It actually changes lanes when I put on the blinker, instead of only changing lanes 70% of the time, and the other time just sitting with the blinker on and a…

Kia Telluride here but I assume it's the same underlying system as Hyundai - I can attest that it's very good (and doesn't cost anything extra like Tesla charges lol) which makes sense considering they have the majority stake in Boston Dynamics since a few years ago.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#864
post #842

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do you have any sources for that claim? I can attest that current iteration of FSD is very, very good, and very likely is a safer driver than I am. That's a damning statement about your driving skills, and probably not true or you'd have had your license revoked by now. I've had FSD for five years, and even today it regularly makes dangerous mistakes. For example, left turns and roundabouts are the equivalent of Ru…

Do you think your anecdote is more likely to be true than an insurance company putting its money where its mouth is? "Tesla Full Self-Driving is twice as safe, so Lemonade takes 50% off every mile driven with FSD."

I don't know anything about Lemonade, so I can't comment on the logic behind that business strategy, but by definition all the dangerous behavior of FSD is excluded from the analysis since you have to shut it off to avoid the danger.

Beyond that, the effect size of my anecdotes assures me that it is not safer than a human driver. It's just obvious.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#865

Before Tesla came along there were a small number of EVs but they were all pretty bad because their only purpose was to serve as “compliance cars” in states like California so automakers could sell more gas cars. (See the documentary Who Killed the Electric Car? for more on this.) So Tesla deserves credit for building the first electric cars that people actually wanted to buy. They also deserve credit for building th…

The sequel Revenge of the Electric Car is a very interesting follow up, especially now with hindsight. It followed the stories of the Tesla Roadster, Nissan Leaf, and Chevy Volt all in about the exact same time period and stages of development.

Of those, the Leaf is the only model that has continuously existed since then, and from the documentary there is a sense of that. GM admits the Volt was a stepping stone and not the final product. Tesla's part of the documentary involves a lot of trials and tribulations and even Tesla seeming unsure about their manufacturing problems. (Though the documentary itself spins a hopeful tune.)

Of the figures in the documentary the most prescient seems to be Carlos Ghosn, then in charge of Renault-Nissan. He very much insisted that EVs weren't just the future, they were the scramble for the present. Renault took that message to heart and seemed to be the side that won it in the messy divorce that also eventually wound up with Ghosn getting charged for treason and embezzlement in Japan. Which is an incredible and weird story on multiple levels and maybe the documentary makers will get a chance to include that in a third movie for the series.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#866

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And to add insult to injury, even GM Super Cruise is widely renowned as better and safer than Tesla’s current “FSD”. Do you have any sources for that claim? I can attest that current iteration of FSD is very, very good, and very likely is a safer driver than I am. At least one major insurance company agrees [0]. I don't have any experience with Super Cruise though. [0] - https://www.lemonade.com/fsd

Lemonade doesn't support your claim that FSD is a safer driver than you are. It just says that, most charitably, they believe FSD and a human operator are safer than just a human operator (The co-founder said exactly this to Reuters [0]). Further, the program has only been around for a week and their marketing copy specifically cites "Tesla's data" as the source for the 50% reduction rather than any sort of independe…

They are putting their money behind their words, unless there is some backroom deal we don't know about. If a human operator + FSD is twice safer than human operator alone, then FSD is still a large safety improvement. Considering how human operators behave with these systems, I'd also wager having the human operator (many don't even look at the road!) makes only a small difference.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#867

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're totally wrong on this. Tesla didn't waste the first mover advantage. They benefitted from it whilst it existed, but Electric vehicles turned into a commodity, which was entirely expected and there's no moat. You've explained yourself why it would be untenable for Musk to pursue becoming the biggest car manufacturer in the world - if he succeeded in that goal... he would have succeded in shrinking the v…

Tesla's original "secret plan" (published on their website) was to become a commodity car manufacturer faster than electric cars became a commodity. Such that the other manufacturers would find them selling obsolete vehicles and Tesla just becomes the new General Motors. This was the justification for their stock price for quite a few years: "It's logical that Tesla is worth more than all other automakers combined be…

[dead]

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#868

I think Tesla would make way more sense if they got out of the car part of the business. Serving the consumer market directly is very expensive. Their electronics, batteries, motors, etc., are world class. Packaging this up into something a partner can use to build actual cars could have less risk. An electric motor or battery can propel many kinds of automobile. They tend to keep their value better when stored in th…

You can compare the market cap of say GM (automaker) to Bosch (massive automaker supply chain and logistics company) to get a sense of why that sort of pivot would probably not be appreciated by the market. Supply chain companies are usually considered "lesser" companies.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#869

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These are very much things of the future. I thought it was hyperloop. I thought it was suboribital taxis. I thought it was underground taxis. I thought it was self-driving semi trucks. Or was it solar roofs? Or powerwall? Wait weren't we supposed to be on the moon again right now? He's a bullshitter. Yea, he picks good targets, but he is entirely full of shit. The market just does not reflect this. He should have b…

To his credit he also delivers, sometimes. X kind of works. XAi kind of works. You can say it is all kind of broken but it works. People predicted X will collapse just a few months ago! StarLink is really popular now, and it didn't exist few months ago. He can still do things. People are betting on that. Now if you ask me, Tesla is still his biggest moneymaker and collapse of Tesla sales will be catastrophic for his…

> X kind of works.

It is less popular and makes less money than when he acquired it, and that is ignoring the fact that it is a cesspool of racism now.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#870

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's pure logic that Tesla has to pursue bets that would justify billion dollar valuations and being a car company isn't that. But it's make-believe. Tesla is a car manufacturer. They haven't shipped anything else other than cars. And they even suck at making cars these days. Tesla Semi? All but dead. The new roadster? Also dead. Full Self Driving? Doesn't exist. Robotaxis? Even if they got them to work, at this po…

I know it’s popular to hate on Elon and therefore Tesla, but you need to be accurate when doing so. They’re still chipping away. > Tesla Semi?All but dead. They’ve been running a pilot all this time, and the factory in Nevada to mass produce them is on schedule. Production ramp is second half of this year. The factory is ginormous. > The new roadster? Also dead. Elon said yesterday the unveil is in April “hopefully”…

[dead]
Post reply on HN