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IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

businessinsider.com

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Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#861

Post by mark_l_watson »

spider-mario wrote: post #847
mark_l_watson wrote: post #753

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. re: energy and other resource use: the analogy I like is with driving cars: we use cars for transportation knowing the environmental costs so we don’t usually just go on two hour drives for the fun of it, rather we drive to get to work, go shopping. I use Gemini 3 but only in specific high value use cases. When I use commercial models I think a little about the societal costs. In the USA we have lost the thr…

Most of the energy for AI does not go into chatbots. Using Gemini is not remotely close to driving a car for 2 hours. If a prompt is 0.3 Wh ( https://cloud.google.com/blog/products/infrastructure/measur... , https://andymasley.substack.com/p/a-cheat-sheet-for-conversa... ), each prompt is closer to using an e-bike for 50 metres. You could have your morning shower 1°C less hot and save enough energy for about 200 prom…

+1 interesting

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#862

Post by CursedSilicon »

pulse7 wrote: post #858
diggyhole wrote: post #802

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. Just like Intel completely shitting the bed on GPUs then their CEO tweeted a prayer. Old tech companies are going to be left behind.

IBM was founded in 1911 and it survived many things...

Yeah but this time it's different!

Hey have you seen my tulip collection?

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#865

Post by ratelimitsteve »

infecto wrote: post #745
blablabla123 wrote: post #533

Despite the flashy title that's the first "sober" analysis from a CEO I read about the technology. While not even really news, it's also worth mentioning that the energy requirements are impossible to fulfill Also now using ChatGPT intensely since months for all kinds of tasks and having tried Claude etc. None of this is on par with a human. The code snippets are straight out of Stackoverflow...

I am a senior engineer, I use cursor a lot in my day to day. I find I can code longer and typically faster than without. Is it on par with human? It’s getting pretty darn close to be honest, I am sure the “10x” engineers of the world would disagree but it definitely has surpassed a junior engineer. We all have our anecdotes but I am inclined to believe on average there is net value.

i'm also a senior engineer and I use codex a lot. It has reduced many of the typical coding tasks to simply writing really good AC. I still have to write good AC, but I'm starting to see the velocity change from using good AI in a smart way.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#866

Post by AlexandrB »

arisAlexis wrote: post #519
brokenmachine wrote: post #454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have 8.3 billion examples of general intelligence alive on the planet right now. Surely an artificial one in a data center, costing trillions and beholden to shareholders, will solve all society's issues!

I suggest you read Amodei post called "machines of loving grace". It will change your worldview (probably).

A lot of this stuff is in the realm of "lol" or even "lmao". There's a consistent failure to consider human nature and economic incentives woven through this essay. Probably the most objectionable stuff is in section 2 "Neuroscience and Mind" because the definition of "mental illness" itself is prone to all kind of historical and societal biases. Who gets to decide what a "normal" brain is? Is it the AI? Does the owner of the brain have any say here? Would a psychopath actually volunteer to be "treated"? Ultimately the danger is that "normal" will just mean "what's best for economic productivity". This is not a good or moral definition and is not founded in any kind of ethical reasoning.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#867

Post by duped »

chii wrote: post #425
duped wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How different is this from rental car companies changing over their fleets? I don't know, this is a genuine question. The cars cost 3-4x as much and last about 2x as far as I know, and the secondary market is still alive.

> the secondary market is still alive. this is the crux. Will these data center cards, if a newer model came out with better efficiency, have a secondary market to sell to? It could be that second hand ai hardware going into consumers' hands is how they offload it without huge losses.

I would presume that some tier shaped market will arise where the new cards are used for the most expensive compute tasks like training new models, the slightly used for inference, older cards for inference of older models, or applied to other markets that have less compute demand (or spend less $ per flop, like someone else mentioned).

It would be surprising to me that all this capital investment just evaporates when a new data center gets built or refitted with new servers. The old gear works, so sell it and price it accordingly.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#868

Post by CamouflagedKiwi »

tw04 wrote: post #797
mattlondon wrote: post #771

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take this "sober" analysis with a big pinch of salt. IBM have totally missed the AI boat, and a large chunk of their revenue comes from selling expensive consultants to clients who do not have the expertise to do IT work themselves - this business model is at a high risk of being disrupted by those clients just using AI agents instead of paying $2-5000/day for a team of 20 barely-qualified new-grads in some far-off c…

Missed the boat? Have you been living under a rock? Watson AI advertising has been everywhere for years. It’s not that they aren't in the AI space, it’s that the CEO has a shockingly sober take on it. Probably because they’ve been doing AI for 30+ years combined with the fact they don’t have endless money with nowhere to invest it like Google.

Advertising for it has been everywhere, but it's never seemed like it's at the forefront of anything. It certainly wasn't competitive with ChatGPT and they haven't managed to catch back up in the way Google have.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#869

Post by ikesau »

victor106 wrote: post #822
snake_doc wrote: post #552

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China added ~90GW of utility solar per year in last 2 years. There's ~400-500GW solar+wind under construction there. It is possible, just may be not in the U.S. Note: given renewables can't provide base load, capacity factor is 10-30% (lower for solar, higher for wind), so actual energy generation will vary...

> China added ~90GW of utility solar per year in last 2 years. There's ~400-500GW solar+wind under construction there. Source?

I'm not sure about the utility/non-utility mix, but according to IRENA it was actually ~500GW of added capacity in 2023 and 2024.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/installed-solar-pv-capaci...

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#870

Post by octoberfranklin »

blibble wrote: post #181
1vuio0pswjnm7 wrote: post #176

One thing we saw with the dot-com bust is how certain individuals were able to cash in on the failures, e.g., low cost hardware, domain names, etc. (NB. prices may exceed $2) Perhaps people are already thinking about they can cash in on the floor space and HVAC systems that will be left in the wake of failed "AI" hype

I'm looking forward to buying my own slightly used 5 million square ft data centre in Texas for $1

Equinix certainly is.
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