Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries • Hacker News Board

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#861

Post by marcosdumay » Thu, Apr 10, 2025, 1:28 AM UTC

slg wrote: post #481

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

Genuinely wondering why so many people are still giving the Trump administration this much benefit of the doubt that their moves are strategically sound? We're really still doing the whole "3D chess" thing with this guy after he has shown over and over again that he mostly just acts on impulse and the primary qualification for his advisors is loyalty over any type of intelligence or expertise?

I dunno. Somebody literally wrote a guidebook for him to follow, but I haven't even glanced over it.

The stuff I've seen people quote from the book have all been stupid, but the kind of stupidity seems to be a "do X, so you'll get Y" where "Y" is really bad and the author thinks it's good. So I guess I do expect some kind of coherence from him.

That said, I don't remember anybody claiming Project 25 talks about tariffs.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#862

Post by 8note » Thu, Apr 10, 2025, 1:29 AM UTC

orangecat wrote: post #372

me2too wrote: post #169

This man's absurdity never ceases to amaze me. How can his supporters appreciate all this - constant - chaos? Moreover, from the outside (European here), it looks like the US president can literally do whatever he wants without being subject to regulations or facing any consequences - pretty much like a dictatorship. No discussion, no parliament, no opposition taken into account. Crazy.

How can his supporters appreciate all this - constant - chaos? "Burn it all down" is popular on both the far right and far left. it looks like the US president can literally do whatever he wants without being subject to regulations or facing any consequences Yes, presidents have been given far too much power to do whatever they want by declaring a fake "emergency". It's inexcusable that Congress hasn't put a stop to…

its reality TV. his supporters are generally insulated from the consequences, but even when affected, get the excitement of participating.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#863

Post by 8note » Thu, Apr 10, 2025, 1:31 AM UTC

wtcactus wrote: post #698

[flagged]

something drastic to do what about china?

i dont want china to be some colony of the west. i want china to become as rich as the west so that they can have clean domestic consumption with strong worker protections and rights

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#864

Post by georgemcbay » Thu, Apr 10, 2025, 1:31 AM UTC

ajross wrote: post #752

hayst4ck wrote: post #606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incompetence is way more dangerous than people realize. These tariffs are China's Four Pests campaign. Mao, a very trump like figure, decided to protect Chinese crops by destroying sparrows that were picking at them. Killing sparrows killed a predator of insects which did more damage to crops. This coupled with reality denying policies and ignoring experts led to one of the most devastating famines the world has ever…

There is absolutely a Cultural Revolution feel to the communication by and around the president. See e.g. Bill Ackman's fully-prostrated worshipful response on Twitter this morning. The guy is a successful billionaire! And he needs to sound like a literal cult member in public lest he lose influence.

The obeying in advance and reflexive glazing is scary in a Twilight Zone or slow-start-of-a-zombie-movie sort of way, but the fact that Trump is playing very fast and loose with due process, talking seriously about "deporting" American citizens and is actively applying economic death penalties to people on his bad side (like the EO stripping security clearance not only from Chris Krebs, but everyone who happens to work at his current employer) is scary in a "is the US as we know it actually going to survive this?" kind of way.

And I'm just pulling a few things off the top of Many Very Worrying Things here for brevity.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#865

Post by tines » Thu, Apr 10, 2025, 1:32 AM UTC

linguae wrote: post #238

matteoraso wrote: post #24

Doesn't help America as much as some people might think. The world has seen that Trump is erratic, and America imports too much from China to just ignore the 125% (!!!) tariff on the country.

Exactly. The damage has been done; the fact that economic policy could dramatically change day-by-day makes investing and planning very difficult. In addition, the tariffs on China are insane. One of my biggest concerns is the value of the dollar. If foreigners are discouraged from doing business with America either due to tariffs or due to other matters, how does this affect the dollar, which is a fiat currency? The…

America will get the outcome it deserves.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#866

Post by acdha » Thu, Apr 10, 2025, 1:34 AM UTC

arunabha wrote: post #796

I am beginning to wonder if there is an actual plan behind these moves beyond creating uncertainty in trading partner's minds. The stated goal of the administration is to 'reindustrialize' the US by manufacturing more of the goods consumed within the US itself. To get to that goal, tariff barriers are just one part of the story. For tariffs to be effective towards getting to the strategic goal, they need to be couple…

There isn’t a serious plan to bring manufacturing back. You can debate whether there is a plan for high-pressure negotiations, insider trading or kickbacks (e.g. Nvidia’s successful deployment of a million dollar dinner at Mar-a-Lago), etc. but you can tell that it’s not a good-faith attempt to invest in American industry because that would start with the two things you mentioned: you’d see the investment in those industries now and a commitment to raising taxes on foreign competition in 2030 or so when people have had time to actually be able to meet demand.

What we’re seeing now makes as much sense as a middle-aged laptop jockey deciding that they want to be in better shape – and then quitting their job to run in the Badwater Ultramarathon the next week.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#867

Post by marcosdumay » Thu, Apr 10, 2025, 1:35 AM UTC

compumike wrote: post #305

Is it just the historical legacy of international trade that tariffs apply only to physical goods, but not to something like software-as-a-service subscriptions, digital media, or intellectual property? As the latter categories are more representative of US exports, it would surely be an interesting escalation if other countries were to start including them in their “retaliatory” tariffs.

The Brazilian Congress finished approving a law yesterday granting the president powers to retaliate by voiding intellectual property.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#868

Post by ajross » Thu, Apr 10, 2025, 1:42 AM UTC

milesvp wrote: post #614

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

> Instead of being seen as a safe haven, U.S. debt itself started to look shaky There's also a more basic answer to why US debt got more expensive. There is no such thing as a "trade deficit". You cannot import something without exporting something else. That something else, in almost 100% of the situations, is dollars. What do you do with dollars, if there's nothing you want to buy? You buy debt. So, every trade def…

This is all correct, but it's a first principles explanation that doesn't explain why US bonds, and in particular the 10-year note, spiked today. Yes, eventually excessive tariffs would have that result. They literally hadn't even taken effect yet. So this doesn't explain the bond motion today.

Someone was dumping, we don't know who or why. But the answer to that question is a lot (a lot) more important than people realize, and certainly more so than the immediate market motion or tariff policy.

Honestly if the answer was "The PRC was unloading bonds to send a message" that's sort of the best option, as they have limited wiggle room to continue to do so without wrecking their own financial situation.

If it's "The market as a whole lost confidence in US debt", then we're fucked no matter what Trump does next.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#869

Post by makeitdouble » Thu, Apr 10, 2025, 1:45 AM UTC

spacemadness wrote: post #650

hayst4ck wrote: post #606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incompetence is way more dangerous than people realize. These tariffs are China's Four Pests campaign. Mao, a very trump like figure, decided to protect Chinese crops by destroying sparrows that were picking at them. Killing sparrows killed a predator of insects which did more damage to crops. This coupled with reality denying policies and ignoring experts led to one of the most devastating famines the world has ever…

People are so desperate for this to be rational. Which itself is entirely irrational given the information at hand.

I genuinely think it's rational.

Not clever, or justified, or well though out, or based on any solid evidence. But there's probably a rationale behind it.

Now, ideally, we shouldn't have to care what the rationale was if there was any way of just getting back to "normal", but the same way Mao wasn't a flash in the pan, I assume we're looking at a few decades of it for the US as well.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#870

Post by skybrian » Thu, Apr 10, 2025, 1:46 AM UTC

milesvp wrote: post #614

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

> Instead of being seen as a safe haven, U.S. debt itself started to look shaky There's also a more basic answer to why US debt got more expensive. There is no such thing as a "trade deficit". You cannot import something without exporting something else. That something else, in almost 100% of the situations, is dollars. What do you do with dollars, if there's nothing you want to buy? You buy debt. So, every trade def…

It's usually not "dollars." It could be any investment or service that could be bought using dollars. And calling foreign investment an "export" is just confusing.