Earlier quoted context omitted.
Who is „we“?
you can call it NATO
So, Germany?
Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted
861–870 of 1001 posts
Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted
#862Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hint: The cables are often very close. If one breaks, the otherone also breaks :-)
What are the chances that they break in close proximity spacially, but not temporarily? (I'm assuming that it would be headline material if the lines had disconnected within minutes) Tangent: an attacker trying hard to provoke that kind of accident would likely not have a very fast success feedback. "Let's try once more, for good measure"
Still pretty decent, given the right circumstances.
For example, the 2011 earthquake in Japan resulted in damage to 7 cables[0]. But it wasn't the quake itself which instantly broke all 7 cables - they were destroyed by underwater avalanches triggered by the earthquake. Avalanches can occur hours after a seismic event, and some underwater avalanches go on for days.
I highly doubt that's the case here, but if you're asking about chances it's not as unlikely as you'd think!
[0]: https://www.theverge.com/c/24070570/internet-cables-undersea...
Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted
#863Earlier quoted context omitted.
The last time it happened, the Russian ship had also been seen unnaturally going back and forth over the cable where the damage occurred. These damages do not happen by themselves. Considering the current international situation and the fact that it happened in a short time in several places unnaturally in a limited region, the Baltic Sea, you have to be very naive if you do not see this as probable sabotage.
well, we did blow up their pipeline, so not like we didnt open the salvo for making international resources fair game
[deleted]
Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted
#864Earlier quoted context omitted.
The last time it happened, the Russian ship had also been seen unnaturally going back and forth over the cable where the damage occurred. These damages do not happen by themselves. Considering the current international situation and the fact that it happened in a short time in several places unnaturally in a limited region, the Baltic Sea, you have to be very naive if you do not see this as probable sabotage.
well, we did blow up their pipeline, so not like we didnt open the salvo for making international resources fair game
Either Russia or Ukraine blew it up.
Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted
#865Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do we have some kind of time-of-flight system that can find out exactly where a cable damage occurred, the instant that it occurs?
There's repeaters so the general area should be known.
They can measure the location of the break to centimeters by timing how long a light pulse takes to reflect back to the emitter. It is called time-domain reflectometry.
Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted
#866Earlier quoted context omitted.
So then the resolution to this war is simple: Russia returns Crimea, Donbass etc and Ukraine promises not to join NATO. Strange that Putin hasn't proposed such a deal.
Not joining NATO is just a way of deferring the genocide. A regional power has no chance to stand against a global superpower on its own. If not NATO, then a different coalition.
I understand what you mean but Russia is not a global superpower. They are not the USSR. Acting and speaking as though they are is part of how we got into this mess, the US and Europe didn't show any real backbone during the decade following the initial 2014 invasion, or during the Syrian crisis before that, or the 2008 invasion of Georgia before that.
Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted
#867Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I do not get news from Joe Rogan podcasts, and as such, it is unnecessary and inappropriate to claim so. I simply stated that's the same level of shallow analysis and severe lack of understanding of what's at play, sprinkled with mystical thinking and conspiracy theories, which is prevalent in the right-wing media and amplified by Russian propaganda. I don't think it's inappropriate, it might just be a coincidence.…
It all began with pro-Russian Ukrainians fighting against the Ukrainian government though... Are you in support of Israel too, by any chance?
Wrong.
It all began when President Yanukovych rejected an agreement he promised to sign with the EU (which was, and is, a public document with known the terms) in exchange for a deal with Russia, of unknown terms and vague promises, and framed with threats.
This was a 180 turn that led to the Maidan Revolution and the impeachment of the president. It was the decision of the President against the will of the majority of Ukrainians who voted to elect Yanukovych, who promised close ties with the EU including signing the Association Agreement.
This was followed by Russia invading Ukraine in late 2013/early 2014 with "separatists"/"little green men".
By the way - "pro-Russian" Ukrainians didn't revolt against the EU Association Agreement, it got Yanukovych elected.
So again, you have strong misinformed opinions aligned with the Russian narrative, of a subject you don't seem to know that much about. That happens to be oddly aligned with some alternative media like The Rubin Report, Tim Pool, etc.
Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted
#868Earlier quoted context omitted.
A 1 in 36 million chance for three breaks in one day. https://mathb.in/80217
That's assuming independence. I'm not ruling out sabotage but the world is often not fully independent. A storm or an anchor both may affect multiple cables if they're in generally the same area which would definitely make the probability far more likely than those stated. (edit typo)
I was told in my stats class that events in the real world are almost never truly independent.
Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted
#869Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I do not get news from Joe Rogan podcasts, and as such, it is unnecessary and inappropriate to claim so. I simply stated that's the same level of shallow analysis and severe lack of understanding of what's at play, sprinkled with mystical thinking and conspiracy theories, which is prevalent in the right-wing media and amplified by Russian propaganda. I don't think it's inappropriate, it might just be a coincidence.…
It all began with pro-Russian Ukrainians fighting against the Ukrainian government though... Are you in support of Israel too, by any chance?
No, it began with Russia's regime sending paid mercenaries (to the Donbas) and regular troops (to the Crima) in March-April of 2014. There was no indigenous revolt of any significance before this happened. Even pro-Russian sources acknowledge this fact.
Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted
#870I wonder how expensive it would be to bury undersea fiber cables deeper under the seabed to protect them from anchors cutting them. It might be cheaper to just install a second cable far enough away that they are unlikely to be cut at the same time.