Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm used to HN being sensible, and seeing your comment being downvoted makes me wonder what's happening? What's the reason for that optimism?
HN’s culture has changed somewhat and downvotes are now used more often to signal disagreement, sadly. But also “use common sense” and “but the trendline” are only partially compelling arguments as presented if you already believe what is being argued. They’re not compelling enough to those who aren’t convinced yet
Given the available information there is no condition where one would bet against the trendline.
Common sense is basically trendline following. It's the basis of our existence. You get out of bed without worrying about whether or not there is no ground under your feet because the trendline points to a reality where the ground is always there.
The basis of AI tomorrow being better than today is common sense. chatGPT has improved since inception. Are we predicting improvement will suddenly stop? That AI technology will degrade? Such predictions as stated before, go against common sense.
The big question here isn't about the future of AI. The future is as stated previously predictable by common sense. The big question here is why are so many people abandoning common sense?