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Bitcoin is a disaster

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861–870 of 992 posts

Re: Bitcoin is a disaster

#861
post #779

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can’t see the flagged post, so don’t attack me here, I’m just going to explain the bitcoiner view. Your presumption that inflation is good and that bitcoin needs to be able to support whatever “social policies” governments decide is antithetical to the purpose of bitcoin. Bitcoin was created to escape currency debasement because it is how the people are impoverished. Currency debasement is the engine that creates w…

> currency debasement ... is how the people are impoverished I agree that's the heart of the Bitcoin thesis, but I am convinced the evidence does not support that claim. In fact, quite the opposite. Much of the original Bitcoin discussion had its roots in von Mises' theories and beliefs, one of which was the rejection of empiricism. It's tough to fruitfully discuss a topic when the conversants disagree over epistemol…

> The government can print money and distribute it uniformly, such as with this year's CARES act (which is about as uniform as one can ask for in this political climate).

It can, but it almost never does. Usually it just subsidizes or bails out businesses.

> Regardless of government policy for how it distributes newly created currency, inflation is fundamentally beneficial for debtors and bad for creditors.

If the inflation rate is stable/predictable (which is the goal for the USD) it makes no difference for creditors/debtors, it gets baked into the interest rate spread.

Re: Bitcoin is a disaster

#862

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or provide the myriad examples of why "Don't keep it on exchange" is good advice[0][1][2]. But it's not up to the advice-giver to do the due diligence. [0]: https://cryptosec.info/exchange-hacks/ [1]: https://coiniq.com/cryptocurrency-exchange-hacks/ [2]: https://selfkey.org/list-of-cryptocurrency-exchange-hacks/

You’re kind of sidestepping my point. Yes, it’s a good idea to keep your coins off the exchange, for all the reasons you’ve provided. The issue is that keeping your money off exchange is far less convenient, which is exactly why most people keep their couns on exchanges despite the risks. If the Bitcoin community in general wants people to stop getting hacked on exchanges, they need to provide more convenient alterna…

If some people like to leave their house unlocked because it's convenient it's not my duty to make them a more convenient door lock, it's quite enough to warn them about the dangers and let them make their own decisions.

It's not like using a wallet is hard or inconvenient, it's just an extra step, like reaching for your keys before entering your house.

But there can certainly be a business opportunity there, sure.

Re: Bitcoin is a disaster

#863
post #508

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only reason BTC works in this scenario is that the authorities are not chasing it down. If they decide to, it will be just as unviable as the other options and authorities have many methods at their disposal to make bitcoin transfers difficult. BTC is cool, but no amount of tech can solve what is essentially a policy issue: overseas remittances.

You can make the same argument about AirBNB or Uber. The bottom line is that when a technology becomes available that makes life much easier for its users, it's really hard for the government to then crack down on it. There's not much reason for any government to want to crack down on BTC simply for the sake of cracking down on it. People talk about governments cracking down on BTC because it will undermine the local…

In fact, governments like New York have cracked down on Uber and AirBnb. I do think if BTC or another crypto were to be a problem for a country they would simply legislate away people’s right to hold or exchange it. US would pass a bill that makes the exchanges illegal. Sure, people would find ways around that, but it would be enough to deter your average citizen and to squash widespread adoption.

Whether BTC becomes a problem is a question, but if use in laundering or escaping taxes gets past a certain point, I do think it is a risk.

Re: Bitcoin is a disaster

#864
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your armchair analysis is on the mark. in a fiat dominated world, any market distortions caused by monetary mismanagement (money printing through QE, asset inflation) is not visible as everything in the market is priced in the same underlying asset (USD globally). Since bitcoin is outside this system it is actually holding up a mirror to the increasing worthlessness of the USD and other mismanaged fiat currencies.

> as everything in the market is priced in the same underlying asset > the increasing worthlessness of the USD I think you must be using words different from what I take them to mean, which means you can draw radically different conclusions from how I read them. If everything in the economy is tied together, such that $10 is still an hour of work at a grocery store, and $10 still buys you a lunch or three gallons of…

> If everything in the economy is tied together, such that $10 is still an hour of work at a grocery store, and $10 still buys you a lunch or three gallons of milk, and $10 still buys you 4 gallons of gas, etc etc, then I don't see how you can say that there has been some kind of "secret" sky-high inflation over the past few years that is only detectable "from the outside."

The key ingredient missing from your calculation is time. If you are simply measuring how much an hour of work can purchase now, you are completely ignoring that some people want to save money.

If $10 is the measurement for an hour of work and 4 gallons of gas today, in a decade or so, you might need $20 to pay for 4 gallons of gas, and you might get paid $20 for an hour of work. But somebody who saved $10 worked today, and chooses to spend it a decade later, will only be able to acquire 2 gallons of gas. The result of their labour would have been reduced to half.

This is what Bitcoin intends to fix. We want to be able to store wealth into the future - so that an hour worked today is still worth an hour (or more) tomorrow. The potential appreciation in purchasing power is reward for thrift.

As it stands, if one wants to preserve wealth into the future, they must put money into risky investments to ensure that the dollar value of the savings appreciates at a greater rate than its purchasing power is lost to inflation. They also run the risk that their savings or pensions could be lost with companies going bust or if hyperinflation occurs.

Bitcoin is a pension plan.

As for using Bitcoin as a reference frame of measurement, there's a good reason to do this. Bitcoin is a fixed system of measurement which is disjoint of time or other externalities. There is an absolute maximum of 21M bitcoin, so any whole bitcoin is always 1/21M of the total supply. This is a truth that holds today and in a decade. It is immutable.

Consider measurement of length. If you only have cows in a field, how do you measure the length of a field? You could say it is 100 cows long and 80 cows wide, but how long is the cow? The cow grows as it ages. Once you get hold of an external tool of measurement - a meter (or yard, etc), then you can measure both the field and each cow against it.

The same is now true for economic value. Before Bitcoin, there was no fixed scale of measurement. The dollar was flexible, just as any other commodity. Bitcoin OTOH, is not flexible. The exchange rate of BTC/USD might be flexible, but when you use BTC as the frame of reference, you can instead measure how much value the dollar is losing against bitcoin. https://usdsat.com

As you can see, the dollar is losing value so rapidly that inflation of the dollar is negligible. It is the perception of inflation which is causing it to plummet far quicker than the actual rate of inflation.

Re: Bitcoin is a disaster

#865

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a useful signal in the dollar price? Price of silver? They are all used in hedging bets. Same for BTC, people with a lot of cash are looking for a safe spot while we have the possibility of hyper inflation.

Look at the Money Velocity. It’s decreasing. You cannot have hyper inflation with a decreasing velocity.

How much has the velocity of Venezuelan Bolivares increased in the last few years?

Re: Bitcoin is a disaster

#866

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The banned person was Indonesian. Something something his bank account. (One more reason for me why payment system of the future must be permissionless. Like, you know, bitcoin)

> One more reason for me why payment system of the future must be permissionless. Like, you know, bitcoin That's not possible with a public ledger and current state of analysis - instead of proactive cancellation of the transaction on the legacy banking system, you'll get a delayed reaction from the authorities. When you file your tax return you'll get a notice to explain transaction ID 0x...34 to a certain banned in…

There are already ways to avoid that outcome today. You can use a fresh wallet and launder the money through a mixer like the other poster suggests, but you can also use shielded transactions like Zcash has (based on zero knowledge proofs) or coins where transactions are private if there is enough volume like Monero.

Re: Bitcoin is a disaster

#867

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does anyone know if you can tell country of origin of a transaction request? Maybe the IP sending the request is public to the network? In this kind of setting, where the transaction is illicit, you wouldn't go through an exchange, you'd publish the transaction directly to the bitcoin network, and organizations like chainalytics do track the origin IP addresses.

That makes sense. Not to criticise but... Isn't the IP of a transaction initiator being public a bit of a design flaw? Is it just assumed that users will obscure their own IPs (vpn, tor, etc)? Otherwise my isp/government can see my transactions and infer wallet ownership and I'm suddenly very un-anonymous...

There are wallets that support schemes like Dandelion, intended to make it harder to deanonymize users: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/BIP_0156

Edit: apparently this has been delayed so you likely can't use it at this point https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/81503/what-is-th...

Re: Bitcoin is a disaster

#868
post #598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here in Brazil, we have that since last month. The new money transfer system (Pix) allows anyone to send money to a key, which can be a person's CPF (the tax ID number nearly everyone has), a phone number, an email, or a randomly-generated number. These all map to a bank account (you can also use Pix to send directly to a bank account number); the directory with these mappings is kept by the Brazilian Central Bank, a…

Fascinating, this is the first time I've heard of Pix. Can you own the private key? Can you create an account without having a bank account?

No, PIX is directly tied to your Bank Account. You need to have a bank account opened with an institution that connects your account to PIX.

Re: Bitcoin is a disaster

#869
post #598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here in Brazil, we have that since last month. The new money transfer system (Pix) allows anyone to send money to a key, which can be a person's CPF (the tax ID number nearly everyone has), a phone number, an email, or a randomly-generated number. These all map to a bank account (you can also use Pix to send directly to a bank account number); the directory with these mappings is kept by the Brazilian Central Bank, a…

Can you get banned from Pix?

Thats a good question. PIX is directly tied to your bank account, so I imagine if your bank decides to ban your account, you won't be able to use PIX through that account/bank anymore. But, I suppose you could open another account in another bank, move your previous PIX keys to it or create new ones.

Re: Bitcoin is a disaster

#870
post #848

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Truthfully? There's no good answer, period. The government needs to be replaced. This is the false promise of bitcoin. As long as the government needs to be replaced you have much bigger problems than the currency. As soon as the government is replaced, you no longer have to worry about the currency. Bitcoin always has been, and always will be, a solution in search of a problem. Forget Venezuela for a second and ask…

How is the USD helping the North Koreans? No one claimed that Bitcoin is useful in NK so I don't get the point of the question.

They print USD. And perhaps buying methamphetamine -base-products from China or whereever is more plausably deniable or less WONG or whatever than f around with chinese bills. Whatever they do, they're doing all kinds of shit. And they print USD, or has, and, everything else they do isn't really great, all the time. They counterfeit USD and probably tons of other shit. All the 'coinage' in paper-form from everywhere around the country or the world probably, bar the 3d and biometric and advanced shit probably. It's all shit over there man. In terms of the governance, governing, it's not good!
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