The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May • Hacker News Board

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#861

Post by gnopgnip » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 6:42 PM UTC

mikeg8 wrote: post #629

gnopgnip wrote: post #568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alameda county flat out does not allow evictions for non payment of rent for covid-19 related reasons. The landlords can get back rent on a 12 month payment plan, and they can pursue small claims court if this is not paid.

Does this include commercial leases or just residential?

It looks like just residential. Here is a link to the order. http://www.acgov.org/board/bos_calendar/documents/DocsAgenda...

But commercial evictions are still done judicially in CA unlike some other places, and at least in Alameda county the ability of the business to repay is factored in

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#862

Post by rtkwe » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 7:00 PM UTC

clairity wrote: post #832

rtkwe wrote: post #803

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US they tried the just stay apart message before the stay at home orders and it wasn't working, people still crowded onto beaches in Florida over spring break and into concerts and restaurants all over the country. Ideally yes you'd just say stay apart from people and hand out masks which were getting sold out in a lot of places. Without ordering places closed there's too much incentive for businesses to fudge…

> "There's a lot that could have been done better but it requires a level of coordination and action the US isn't super great at, both in general and right now in particular." the US, by construction, is all-in on decentralized solutions, and one of its strengths is resisting unwarranted coordinated and centralized action, which is simply an amassment of power, because that's inevitably destabilizing (usually over lo…

I know it’s intentionally made into a diffuse set of states but there’s far more than just those two issues where federal power makes sense, environmental regulation in particular since air and water pollution don’t stop at state lines.

But we’re getting off on a tangent about the fundamental design of the US government made at a very different point in history. I don’t think either of us can convince the other here before we both wind up [dead].

On the topic of bungled mismanagement there’s things like states being forced to bid against each other for various medical supplies on the open market and then after being paid for the federal government taking those supplies to redistribute. Instead of those steps just buy them all an do the distribution based on the need in each state which won’t be tied to how much they have to spend. We could have started programs earlier this year to increase the supply of PPE and ventilators knowing that this would inevitably come to the US. We could have followed through on programs like this [0] to ensure that there were cheap easy to build options for ventilators instead of allowing the existing companies to buy out the company contracted and then get out of the obligation because ‘it wouldn’t be profitable enough.’

[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/business/coronavirus-us-v...

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#863

Post by glofish » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 7:28 PM UTC

favorited wrote: post #730

glofish wrote: post #159

When I was younger I could never understand why anyone would vote republican. Today I understand.

Because their Dear Leader thinks that UV light & Lysol is going to play a role in treating COVID-19 patients?

that does not affect me at all

passing various restrictive rules completely disregarding the realities on the ground does

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#864

Post by Uhhrrr » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 7:56 PM UTC

asdff wrote: post #831

Uhhrrr wrote: post #30

San Francisco has only had 18 COVID-19 deaths in the last 30 days, and only 2 in the last week. [0] That seems amazingly low to me. I'm leaning towards thinking non-essential businesses should be opened up there, provided they function under the same restrictions as grocery stores etc. [0] https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_...

Meanwhile LA county seems to be ramping up. This is no time to balk in major metros.

Yes, LA county has the majority of cases in California. They're down from a peak of 1482 new cases a week ago, but still have hundreds of new cases a day. I'm just talking about SF, where things seem to be under control.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#865

Post by lazyasciiart » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 7:58 PM UTC

makomk wrote: post #853

lazyasciiart wrote: post #839

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't care what the comparison to South Korea is, and I don't expect other countries to have already achieved this. I care whether testing is widely available enough that a person who finds out that they had dinner with someone last night who has coronavirus can go and get tested immediately, not wait until they are short of breath and feverish. Perhaps you would like to read Dr Fauci talking about why we need more…

If no country has ever achieved this, what's even the evidence that it's actually possible? There are some pretty fundamental reasons to think it wouldn't work, not least of which are asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic and barely symptomatic spread, and the fairly impressive R0 of this particular disease. If the person you're having dinner with doesn't have symptoms and you have a slight sniffle, how do you even know to g…

Thats what contact tracing is. Your dinner companion finds out they are sick two days later, and everyone they were in contact with gets found and tested.

The amount of testing the US is doing is indeed a fact, and it's widely reported in US press.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#866

Post by rbritton » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 9:39 PM UTC

lazyasciiart wrote: post #837

rbritton wrote: post #828

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A virtually identical argument could be made for the same thing with the sides swapped. Some people's actions (i.e., those imposing lockdowns and other restrictions) are significantly affecting the safety (i.e., mental health, solvency, etc) of other people. It's a balancing scale, not just an independent bar you're trying to drop to zero.

Sure. And that's why there is a complex list of things that are being banned or not, that varies by location, instead of simply telling everyone to go inside their house and not come out for three weeks. And significant legal changes, like unemployment eligibility, loan programs, etc. Exactly who are you thinking of, that is advocating to continue lockdowns because they aren't aware of all the tradeoffs involved?

I can't prove he's unaware, but I have yet to hear a single mention of any tradeoffs like these from Washington's governor. Every single rationale he has provided for his actions has solely been based on covid-19 infected and deaths numbers.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#867

Post by clairity » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 9:44 PM UTC

rtkwe wrote: post #862

clairity wrote: post #832

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "There's a lot that could have been done better but it requires a level of coordination and action the US isn't super great at, both in general and right now in particular." the US, by construction, is all-in on decentralized solutions, and one of its strengths is resisting unwarranted coordinated and centralized action, which is simply an amassment of power, because that's inevitably destabilizing (usually over lo…

I know it’s intentionally made into a diffuse set of states but there’s far more than just those two issues where federal power makes sense, environmental regulation in particular since air and water pollution don’t stop at state lines. But we’re getting off on a tangent about the fundamental design of the US government made at a very different point in history. I don’t think either of us can convince the other here…

ok, but supply of PPE and ventilators to medical workers mainly concerns treatment rather than transmission.

stay-at-home and physical distancing primarily concern transmission.

we want to control transmission to reduce death and suffering, not eliminate them. even with dystopian and draconian measures (not to mention economy-destroying), reducing death and suffering to zero is effectively impossible (and seasonal recurrence is highly likely). moreover, the US is simply not designed, for good reason, to willingly tolerate such measures.

life is full of (similarly likely) risks, and we don't generally panic over them. if this were plague-levels of bad, more draconian measures might be warranted, but this isn't that.

sub-linear transmission is likely the best we can do.

with that in mind, physical distancing (combined with other carefully targeted guidelines like quarantining the sick and having workers wear masks) doesn't need to be perfect to be effective at reducing transmission to sub-linear levels. people who are likely to cough for any reason are already highly discouraged from going out, and most people in public are already hyper-aware of not coughing openly, especially not into each other's mouths.

stay-at-home doesn't meaningfully decrease the risk further, but it's a huge risk to social order.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#868

Post by greedo » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 9:58 PM UTC

tomjakubowski wrote: post #757

gnopgnip wrote: post #589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CA unemployment is near $1000 a week with the federal stimulus.

The amount of unemployment benefit scales with income, and $450/wk (plus $600 from the stimulus) is the maximum, to be clear. A full time worker paid $15/hour would receive $300+1000 per week. UI benefits table https://www.edd.ca.gov/pdf_pub_ctr/de1101bt5.pdf

Your math is a bit off. $15/hour fulltime is $7650 gross per quarter. According to the EDD PDF you linked, that would qualify for $295/week in unemployment plus $600 from the Feds for a total of $895. No one is going to get more than $1050 combined in California.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#869

Post by greedo » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 10:06 PM UTC

clairity wrote: post #832

rtkwe wrote: post #803

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US they tried the just stay apart message before the stay at home orders and it wasn't working, people still crowded onto beaches in Florida over spring break and into concerts and restaurants all over the country. Ideally yes you'd just say stay apart from people and hand out masks which were getting sold out in a lot of places. Without ordering places closed there's too much incentive for businesses to fudge…

> "There's a lot that could have been done better but it requires a level of coordination and action the US isn't super great at, both in general and right now in particular." the US, by construction, is all-in on decentralized solutions, and one of its strengths is resisting unwarranted coordinated and centralized action, which is simply an amassment of power, because that's inevitably destabilizing (usually over lo…

As someone once said, "The Constitution isn't a suicide pact." It and the USA has changed dramatically over the last 246 years. Both the Constitution and the USA will change over the next 246. This idea that the Constitution is inviolate and perfect, that it's the only thing we should adhere to is nonsense, and has been since the ink on it was drying.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#870

Post by greedo » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 10:16 PM UTC

clairity wrote: post #867

rtkwe wrote: post #862

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know it’s intentionally made into a diffuse set of states but there’s far more than just those two issues where federal power makes sense, environmental regulation in particular since air and water pollution don’t stop at state lines. But we’re getting off on a tangent about the fundamental design of the US government made at a very different point in history. I don’t think either of us can convince the other here…

ok, but supply of PPE and ventilators to medical workers mainly concerns treatment rather than transmission. stay-at-home and physical distancing primarily concern transmission. we want to control transmission to reduce death and suffering, not eliminate them. even with dystopian and draconian measures (not to mention economy-destroying), reducing death and suffering to zero is effectively impossible (and seasonal re…

"life is full of (similarly likely) risks, and we don't generally panic over them. if this were plague-levels of bad, more draconian measures might be warranted, but this isn't that."

So if the IFR holds up at around 1%, and herd immunity ends up being the only solution since vaccines are tough, the pandemic in the US would be quite bad, no?

Help me see where the following is flawed:

Population of the US: 328M

Herd Immunity infection total (generously assuming 60%): 196M

Hospitalization totals (generously assuming 10%): 19M

Fatalities based on IFR of 1%: 1.97M

So with 1.97M dead Americans, and 17M seriously injured (but surviving) fellow citizens, what exactly would you envision plague-levels of bad? What would be the economic damage from this level of bad?

Even if the IFR is off, closer to the flu at 0.1%, the infectiousness of this virus means we'd still need 60% or higher infections for herd immunity. With this IFR, we'd still have 17M hospitalized with serious effects, and still have 197K dead. That's at flu level IFR.

The economic value of losing 2M people, as well as 17M with shortened life spans would be far worse than what any lockdown we've implemented would do. It will take all we can to maintain social cohesion for the next 12 months.