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Miscellanea: The War in Iran

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Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#851

Post by ranger207 »

somenameforme wrote: post #782
ranger207 wrote: post #648

Earlier quoted context omitted.

MC2002 was not primarily a wargame to develop operational plans. You can do that much easier and cheaper with a bunch of generals around a map. MC2002 was a training exercise with an element of competitiveness to pressure people under unexpected situations. As a training exercise its prime goal was not to figure out what plans were best but to just exercise plans and get people to do the plan, period. Given that, eve…

Wargames have repeatedly been used to align strategic initiatives because they are designed to as closely replicate an adversary's actions and resources as closely as possible. So for instance in better times there was Proud Prophet [1], another wargame, played out in 1983. Its goal was to simulate outcomes of various scenarios involving hot conflict with the USSR. Up to the point of that wargame, the US position tow…

Yes, wargames can be used to evaluate strategic and operational plans. However, notice how many boots on the ground were involved in Proud Prophet. My point was that MC2002 was not primarily a wargame for evaluating plans, it was primarily a training exercise where lessons learned from executing the existing plans might be used to wargame out future changes

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#852

Post by eagleal »

cyberax wrote: post #704
anticodon wrote: post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

West is living in its own bubble of misinformation. Including the government. On many occasions I've read self-soothing wishful thinking messages about my country. In 2022 it was that Russian army is fleeing, all Russian tanks were burned down, and Russian soldiers are deserting from a front lines with a speed of 100,000 persons a day. Here on HN. Written by the people who had no clue how to distinguish Russian tank…

> Or in 2022-2023 EU leaders said that Russian soldiers are fighting with shovels and stealing microwaves and washing machines to extract microchips from them. And this WAS true. At one point, Ukraine broke through Russian lines and was pushing Russia back as fast as they could get logistics organized. In response, Russia mobilized about 300000 people and forced them to fight or die. Usually both. Then started offeri…

Russia _recruited_, not mobilized as usually in popular conception that would equate with conscripted.

Conscription is enforced with martial law only in ukranian territories, by both the official ukrianian government, and by the russia's occuption forces in donbas.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#853

Post by rurp »

sysguest wrote: post #744
markdown wrote: post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup, Iran is threatening regime change by targeting the financial stability of American voters. It's their only play, really.

well... I actually think even when trump is impeached, the democrats will continue -- even more so, to call mr trump "a weak president" I mean, can US and its allies exactly stop at status quo? Iran just learnt it can missile nearby neighbors and demand $2M toll fee on the strait users... even if US just backs down from "epic wut", will iran become "the good guy" and never missile neighbors and stop demanding that $2…

Under a sane president there would be a pretty clear off ramp available in the form of a negotiated settlement. Iran stops attacking neighbors and the strait in exchange for a US promise to not start another unprovoked war, along with another JCPOA type agreement lifting sanctions and limiting their nuclear development. The problem here is that absolutely nobody trusts trump to actually stick to a deal, especially after he was the one who broke the previous deal and then attacked them twice in the middle of negotiations. Trump's stupidity compounds the mess in ways that no other president would.

Without a negotiating partner Iran basically has to settle the issue with force. They are going to try to do as much economic damage as possible in order to deter current and future attacks, or die trying. Without a ground invasion the attacks on both sides will wind down at some point but it's hard to see how we get to a clean cease fire, it's likely to be a messy uneven one that could flare back up at any point.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#854

Post by eagleal »

YZF wrote: post #698
rawgabbit wrote: post #679

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The continued stalemate will likely continue in my opinion. Continued daily strikes by the US and Iran squeezing the strait. China is severely squeezed by loss of oil. Russia benefits from rising oil prices. Everyone else will get to relive the 1970s. Stagflation here we come.

I don't think Iran can take a sustained air campaign for that long. They talk like they can but they can't. The only thing they have right now is their remaining ballistic missile (and to some extent) drone launch capabilities but that is going to keep getting degraded. The US being a net exporter of oil should benefit from higher oil prices. Defense contractors will also benefit. The 1970's were probably better than…

> I don't think Iran can take a sustained air campaign for that long

Most probably, but Israel and US are now being more conservative with interceptor targets though so that seems to go both ways.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#855

Post by watwut »

hermitcrab wrote: post #446
watwut wrote: post #379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israel is entirely dependent on USA. If USA says they cant attack, they wont.

Are you sure you haven't got that the wrong way around? As an outsider it looks to me as if Israel shouts 'jump' and the USA says 'how high?'. Which is bizarre when you look at how much support the US gives Israel.

No, I do not have it other way round. Israel defense and economy both depend on USA. Which is why it took mentally challenged president to start an expensive war that only Israel and Russia benefit. Previous presidents including Trump himself did told NO to Israel in the past.

Israel wanted this war, it is not like they would be victims here. But USA is NOT a victim either. Hegseth, Trump and co love the violence, love the bombing and love to cosplay as masculine men. They do not get play the "they made me do it" card.

Third, for christ sake, they sent Witkoff and Kushner to negotiate. Lets not pretend there was any honest attempt at negotiations or war avoidance.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#856

Post by theonething »

PickledHotdog wrote: post #706
theonething wrote: post #514

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality You can also easily find analysis warning of the opposite: the risks of not invading Iran. See Nazi Germany and WW2 for an example what happens when you fail to contain a belligerently rogue country.

Iran was "contained" under Obama's deal with them....that Trump tore up....and when he was in the middle of negotiating a new one he attacked Iran who were in good faith negotiations. The rogue nation here is the US.

> Iran was "contained" under Obama's deal with them

Oh, you mean the JCPOA that Iran violated (before it was rejected by Trump) by failing to disclose storage of undeclared nuclear material at secret sites in Turquzabad between 2009 and 2018 and at Lavisan-Shian, Varamin and Marivan starting in 2003 to early 2000s?

UN watchdog declares Iran in breach of nuclear non-proliferation duties: https://www.iranintl.com/en/202506123029

The JCPOA, had weak stipulations on nuclear constraints that sunsetted after 15 years. The deal did not address Iran's missile program, human rights record or support for proxy terrorist groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.

> Iran was in good faith negotiation

Iran has historically made promises, broken them and lied about it.

"The best time for Iran to have given up the weapons pursuit was after the 2003 embarrassment of being caught clearly lying about its nuclear program, but it did not. Over the years, the IAEA Board of Governors issued several warnings to the UN Security Council about the “possible military dimensions” of Iran’s nuclear program"

https://thebulletin.org/2025/07/time-for-iran-to-make-a-no-e...

Iran treats it's people like shit and chooses terrorism over the welfare of it's own people

https://newlinesmag.com/spotlight/the-islamic-republics-brok...

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#857

Post by altacc »

rixed wrote: post #827
altacc wrote: post #786

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is nothing new, history repeats. Prior to the invasions of Afghanistan & Iraq there were numerous regional experts warning that the result would be chaos, failed states, a rise in extremism and long term instability in the region and indirectly the rest of the world. Millions of us marched through the streets, asking our governments not to make what was obviously a massive mistake. The US & UK governments were c…

At one point you have to consider the possibility that destabilisation is the objective and the apparent stupidity just an excuse.

In the case of Israel, destabilisation and creation of a region of neighbouring failed states is absolutely it's aim as that is an exploitable situation. Iran was the only real opposition to Israel's long term colonial expansion and ethnic cleansing and more recent outright genocide. It was also opposed to Israel's existence and funded terrorism, etc... (whatever caveat the reader needs to understand I'm not a cheerleader of Iran) but historically it is not alone in this and is not the only country ever to be hostile to another. The majority of such situations resolve over time through diplomacy and reason, and yes, significant amounts of violence but it is rare to resolve such an international dispute purely through war. Israel, its government and military have long been clear that they don't seek a status quo, but a chaotic forever war they use to justify their literal bulldozing of surrounding nations.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#858

Post by don_esteban »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #466
watwut wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israel does not want functional moderate goverment in Iran. It would bomb and kill anyone who tries that. Israels plan is to periodically bomb and keep Iran failed state. It is working on making itself larger cleansing whole areas around it and settling it.

> Israel does not want functional moderate goverment in Iran Israel would probably be fine with a moderate government in Iran. A moderate Tehran doesn't encourage Hamas and Hezbollah to randomly lob rockets into Israel. Even if Israel disagreed, a moderate Iran balances Israel in the region. An Iran that has beef with literally every single one of its neighbors other than Turkmenistan cannot provide that balance.

Your facts are a bit out of whack.

Pre-war, Iran had good relations with Qatar and Oman. Also with Pakistan. And Armenia. Their current relations with Iraq are also OK.

They have problems with Saudis, Bahrain, UAE - exactly the countries with extensive US military bases. No surprise there.

And Iran has not (prior to being attacked) attacked any of their neighbours.

The only two neighbouring countries Israel does not have problems with are heavily-bought Jordan and Egypt (Israel still attacked them prior to Camp David accords).

To any non-ideologically blind person it is obvious who is the one stirring the instability in the middle east.

You

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#859

Post by don_esteban »

theonething wrote: post #846
donkeybeer wrote: post #814

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israel is the country engaged in Lebensraum, so if you want to make a WW2 analogy, Israel is nazi germany here.

Wow, ok... Iran invaded the US embassy holding 52 civilians hostage, has conducted unprovoked attacks against US, Israeli and other interests for more than 40 years, regularly launches missiles into Israeli airspace, indiscriminately attacks merchant vessels in international waters, massacres and tortures tens of thousands of their own people for the crime of speaking out against their government, sponsors terrorist…

Now list all the aggressive acts of Israel in the last whatever years. And think about it.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#860

Post by theonething »

don_esteban wrote: post #859
theonething wrote: post #846

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, ok... Iran invaded the US embassy holding 52 civilians hostage, has conducted unprovoked attacks against US, Israeli and other interests for more than 40 years, regularly launches missiles into Israeli airspace, indiscriminately attacks merchant vessels in international waters, massacres and tortures tens of thousands of their own people for the crime of speaking out against their government, sponsors terrorist…

Now list all the aggressive acts of Israel in the last whatever years. And think about it.

I'll let you support your own points that you make.
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