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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

wsj.com

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#851

Post by rurp »

ethbr1 wrote: post #148
tyre wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Our continued protection of you is contingent on your investment in us”. Taiwan is hugely reliant on US defense guarantees. The US has a protectionist president who likes big numbers in announcements and a base riled up about American production capacity. Long-term this is bad for Taiwan since it reduces its leverage with the US in administrations with short-term geopolitics (or no real geopolitical talent.) In the…

They only need to make this appear real for 4, maybe 2 years, and can then reevaluate. I'd guess they looked at their options and decided this was the best hedge.

You're being awfully generous thinking this needs to look real for years. If similar big announcements are any guide then the administration will have moved onto some other shiny object in a matter of days or weeks and will never return for any followup.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#852

Post by mullingitover »

jonkoops wrote: post #465
huijzer wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. For China it’s not about the chips. It’s about getting rid of the humiliation that is having a small island, that was originally part of China, not be a part of China.

A 'small' island with one of the most successful and thriving democracies in the East, that has world class industry. China cannot have a successful democracy on their doorstep, it undermines their perception of absolute Chinese superiority.

This doesn't really make sense, the Chinese standard of living has risen to very comfortable levels over the past couple decades. There aren't throngs of desperately poor Chinese people longing for the capitalist democratic paradise over in Taiwan.

If anything, China's rising wealth and living standard is a threat to the United States' sense of superiority. I don't see the US saying "Screw it, let's try totalitarianism" if it wasn't falling behind.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#853

Post by markles »

throwawayffffas wrote: post #681
tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

> 1. China takes Taiwan quickly. That is extremely unlikely to happen, Taipei has invested a lot in defense, and until lately the public in Taiwan at least says they would fight[1]. It's extremely unlikely that they will fold so fast that the US won't have to get involved or to choose to not get involved. > 3. Taiwan successfully defends itself, repels the Chinese invasion, and possibly even takes back some territory…

I think it's more likely that over the next few years US power fades in the region and Taiwan strikes a bargain with China. The Taiwanese are extremely pragmatic when it comes to these sorts of things, and I somehow doubt they'll enter into a conflict they know they can't win. China is also pragmatic and would be willing to allow Taiwan significant autonomy if they can on paper say they've reunited Taiwan with the motherland.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#854

Post by rurp »

adastra22 wrote: post #330
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> what authority do you think China has over Taiwan? Authority, none. Power, plenty.

They can try and find out.

Well, I hope they don't. Unless you know something the rest of the world doesn't China has Taiwan seriously outmatched both economically and militarily. The main question is if China takes minimal or significant losses in the event of an attack.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#855

Post by gpm »

audunw wrote: post #793
billychuck21st wrote: post #604

Those thinking China vs Taiwan is like Russia vs Ukraine is greatly mistaken. The Chinese army after decades of build up is way stronger than Russia's, the enire PLA navy and airforce are built for a war with Taiwan. Ukraine still has Europe, Taiwan only has Japan, and has no border to any other countries. If the US wants to intervene, it must throw in its full weight, like the entire pacific fleet and some more, oth…

Russia has energy independence and food security. China has neither. USA could achieve a lot just by blockading China, something China is in no position to challenge since most of their navy is a brown water navy. Yeah, they can probably fight fairly well for a year or two with their reserves (depending on how much of the reserves are actually there.. corruption is an issue). But after that they risk catastrophic des…

> There’s only a couple of beaches suitable to land an army on

China's been building some new vessels designed to mitigate this (sorry for linking to a video but it's the best source I've seen for this): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Klkpk_hO4FQ

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#856

Post by buzzert »

mullingitover wrote: post #843

I was surprised to learn Taiwan has dabbled in nuclear weapons in the past. They actually got caught developing them and had to swear they'd stop. Given that the US is doing a professional wrestling 'heel turn' and is now The Bad Guys, I wouldn't be surprised if, like NK, they just come out and announce that they have nukes. Honestly, and this is bad for the world but smart in a game theory sense, I think a lot of co…

I don't understand what makes the US "The Bad Guys" in the same sentence that mentions North Korea and China?

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#857

Post by newfriend »

onepremise wrote: post #776
tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

With the current administration, the US will just do the same thing they did to Ukraine. They will abandon them. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyJY_dq8_SM The Trump administration will take TSMC's technology and then leave them to fend for themselves. Just as they literally forced Ukraine to denuclearize and now they have no power to keep Russia in check. We promised to defend Ukraine, but now the Trump administrat…

> We are more likely to get pulled into a war with Russia and North Korea on the wrong side against Ukraine and the EU

No, we are not.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#858

Post by bcrosby95 »

hayst4ck wrote: post #799
thereddaikon wrote: post #611

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China doesn't want Taiwan for TSMC. They want Taiwan because they see them as a rebellious province. In their mind, the Chinese civil war never ended and that island is the last bastion of the Kuomintang. One way I've heard it described in a way that is easier for Americans to understand is; Imagine at the end of the American Civil War, a confederate army retreated to an island like Cuba or Hawaii, they took it over…

There is no “reason” or justification. The decision to invade has already been made, all these explanations exist for the sole purpose of making it easier to do nothing about it when the invasion happens. Chinese people feel they way they are taught to feel. China's fundamental argument distilled to its most pure form is "we are strong enough to do this, what are you going to do about it?" A world where the strong do…

> A world where the strong do whatever they want because no one can do anything about it is not a world anyone should want to live in.

You're fooling yourself if you don't think we live in, and have always lived in, this world.

Citizens like me, living in a relatively just society, can tell ourselves the world is not like this because of our daily lives, but the reality is if some group of people even stronger doesn't care, the strong get to do what they want.

I thought the whole Russia/Ukraine thing snapped people back into the reality of the world we live in, and I'm quite amazed that there are still people that don't realize this is how the world is, and always will, be.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#859

Post by mullingitover »

buzzert wrote: post #856
mullingitover wrote: post #843

I was surprised to learn Taiwan has dabbled in nuclear weapons in the past. They actually got caught developing them and had to swear they'd stop. Given that the US is doing a professional wrestling 'heel turn' and is now The Bad Guys, I wouldn't be surprised if, like NK, they just come out and announce that they have nukes. Honestly, and this is bad for the world but smart in a game theory sense, I think a lot of co…

I don't understand what makes the US "The Bad Guys" in the same sentence that mentions North Korea and China?

In the recent Ukraine vote (condemning the Russian invasion) at the UN the US voted with North Korea and Russia.

Even China and Iran didn't vote with Russia on that one, they abstained.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#860

Post by Mountain_Skies »

buzzert wrote: post #856
mullingitover wrote: post #843

I was surprised to learn Taiwan has dabbled in nuclear weapons in the past. They actually got caught developing them and had to swear they'd stop. Given that the US is doing a professional wrestling 'heel turn' and is now The Bad Guys, I wouldn't be surprised if, like NK, they just come out and announce that they have nukes. Honestly, and this is bad for the world but smart in a game theory sense, I think a lot of co…

I don't understand what makes the US "The Bad Guys" in the same sentence that mentions North Korea and China?

Hysteria, lack of perspective and blood lust.
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