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Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

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Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#851
post #517
post #451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As something of a (biased) expert: yes, it’s a big deal, and yes, this seemingly dumb breakthrough was the last missing piece. It takes a few dozen hours of philosophy to show why your brain is also composed of recursive structures of probabilistic machines, so forget that, it’s not neccesary, instead, take a glance at these two links: 1. Alan Turing on why we should never ever perform a Turing test: https://redirect…

> Alan Turing on why we should never ever perform a Turing test Can you cite specifically what in the paper you're basing that on? I skimmed it as well as the Wikipedia summary but I didn't see anywhere that Turing said that the imitation game should not be played.

Sorry I missed this, for posterity:

I was definitely being a bit facetious for emphasis, but he says a few times that the original question — “Can machines think?” - is meaningless, and the imitation game question is solved in its very posing. As a computer scientist he was of course worried about theoretical limits, and he intended the game in that vein. In that context he sees the answer as trivial: yes, a good enough computer will be able to mimic human behavior.

The essay’s structure is as follows:

1. Propose theoretical question about computer behavior.

2. Describe computers as formal automata.

3. Assert that automata are obviously general enough to satisfy the theoretical question — with good enough programming and enough power.

4. Dismiss objections, of which “humans might be telepathic” was somewhat absurdly the only one left standing.

It’s not a very clearly organized paper IMO, and the fun description of the game leads people to think he’s proposing that. That’s just the premise, and the pressing conclusion he derives from it is simple: spending energy on this question is meaningless, because it’s either intractable or solved depending on your approach (logical and empirical, respectively).

TL;DR: the whole essay revolves around this quote, judge for yourself:

  We may now consider the ground to have been cleared and we are ready to proceed to the debate on our question, "Can machines think?" and the variant of it quoted at the end of the last section… ["Are there discrete-state machines which would do in the Imitation Game?"]

  It will simplify matters for the reader if I explain first my own beliefs in the matter.

  Consider first the more accurate form of the question. I believe that in about fifty years' time it will be possible, to programme computers, with a storage capacity of about 109, to make them play the imitation game so well that an average interrogator will not have more than 70 per cent chance of making the right identification after five minutes of questioning. 

  The original question, "Can machines think?" I believe to be too meaningless to deserve discussion. Nevertheless I believe that at the end of the century the use of words and general educated opinion will have altered so much that one will be able to speak of machines thinking without expecting to be contradicted.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#852

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GPT-4(o) lacks the ability to connect to any of the tools needed to achieve what I'm describing. Sure, it maybe could give instructions about how this could be done, but it can't actually do it . It can't send an email to your email account, and it can't check your incoming emails to see if any arrived asking for a meeting. It can't then check your calendar, and propose another email, or book a time if the time is av…

Here's what's strange about your argument. I had a (human) assistant in my previous business, super-smart MBA type, and by your definition she wasn't a general intelligence on the day of onboarding: - she didn't have access to my email account or calendar - she didn't know my usual lunch time hours - she didn't have a company card yet. All of those points you're raising are logistics, not intelligence. Intelligence i…

I think the intelligence part is to think of any potential logistical obstacles and figure out ways to deal with them with minimal disruption except when necessary because of potential conflicts with other goals.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#853

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> AI has now evolved beyond just the science Pretty weak take there bud. If we just look at the Gartner Hype Cycle that marketing and business people love so much it would seem to me that we are at the peak, just before the downfall. They are hyping hard to sell more, when they should be prepping for the coming dip, building their tech and research side more to come out the other side. Regardless, a tech company with…

You are on point my friend. OpenAI might keep going on with the current momentum for several years without a doubt. But they already lost the long term game. The true essence of the OpenAI empire is not its showmen or PR guys, it's the scientists like Ilya. What a shame to see Ilya leaving. I hope whatever he creates is a rival AI product to stop this OpenAI monopoly and put up some interesting competition.

OpenAI launched gpt3 on June 11, 2020. That's probably the biggest lead they'll ever have over the competition. Over the past several months, I've gotten to the point where OpenAI could vanish tomorrow and I honestly wouldn't miss it. Claude 3 Opus, DBRX, and Llama 3 are at least as good at the tasks that I spend most of my time doing. And if Google can get itself figured out, Gemini Pro has a lot of potential.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#854

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi, sorry for the unrelated comment. I actually wanted to reply to your comment at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40208937 , but that comment was made too long ago and I can no longer reply to it directly. In that comment, you wrote: > It can delete your home directory or email your ssh private keys to Zimbabwe. I thought that you might be interested to know that it is still possible to exfiltrate secrets by ev…

How is that supposed to "delete my home directory"? Also, it doesn't work: error: access to absolute path '/home/user/.ssh/id_rsa' is forbidden in restricted mode Maybe you don't know about restrict-eval? All the CI for nixpkgs is done using that option, so it will never break anything. Turning off restrict-eval is pretty crazy; there's no reason to do that and it's dangerous. https://nixos.org/manual/nix/unstable/co…

> How is that supposed to "delete my home directory"?

Ah, I over-quoted that part. My mistake.

> Also, it doesn't work:

It will work with the default Nix settings.

> Turning off restrict-eval is pretty crazy; there's no reason to do that and it's dangerous.

One would need to first turn it on to be able to turn it off.

> https://nixos.org/manual/nix/unstable/command-ref/conf-file....

Indeed, note the default value.

> I don't think it did. I'm not sure what it was supposed to help with.

I was hoping that it would be interesting to you, but also help avoid spreading false information that might mislead people into evaluating Nix code when it's not safe to do so. But, I think I understand now that maybe you don't care about what happens to other people.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#855

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what's strange about your argument. I had a (human) assistant in my previous business, super-smart MBA type, and by your definition she wasn't a general intelligence on the day of onboarding: - she didn't have access to my email account or calendar - she didn't know my usual lunch time hours - she didn't have a company card yet. All of those points you're raising are logistics, not intelligence. Intelligence i…

I'm pretty certain your assistant learned to do all of those things more or less on her own. Of course, you shared your schedule and email with them, and similarly, you'd have to share your schedule and email with an AGI. But you certainly didn't have to write a special program for your assistant to integrate with your inbox, they just used an existing email/calendar client and looked at their screen. GPT-4 is nowher…

I think we're disagreeing on the current capacity of models, as much as we're disagreeing about the definition of AGI.

I'm pretty sure, from previous interactions with GPT-4o and from their demos, that if you used their desktop app (which enables screensharing) and asked it to tell you where to click, step-by-step, in the Gmail web page, it would be able to do a pretty good job of navigating through it.

Let's remember that the Gmail UI is one of the most heavily documented (in blogs, FAQs, support pages, etc) in the world. I can't see GPT-4o having any difficulty locating elements in there.

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